LA-04 Runoff, Predictions and Results

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Please post your predictions for how the Runoff in La-04 will turn out. Then later we can track the results as the come in. Will Black turnout be just like it was in GA? Will Republicans forget about this race and stay home? Who will win and by how much. I will post my predictions after a good nights sleep and review of the latest polls, districts compostion and demographics.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Which party currently holds this seat?

GOP, but it's an open seat now.

Yes its Jim McCrery's(I hope I am spelling that right) seat and he has had it since the 80's I believe.

I did some research and found that the seat has a PVI of R+13 but it is also 33% AA. So I am just as lost as before as to how it will go. Sam is right LA usually ignores National trends(Just look at the Presidential results). Also as someone else pointed out on the topic about LA-02 that with the exception of La-01 and 02 when a district becomes open in LA it changes parties(La-06 in the special election in 2008, La-03 and 07 swapped hands when they were open in 2004)

However considering that LA clearly is not found of Obama and how AA turnout was down so low in GA I will Guess it will be

Fleming(R) 51%
Carmouche(D) 48% 

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

This thread is now also about LA-02 because giving Jefferson his own thread would be depressing.

I just voted for Rahim, at 5:30 PM Central time. Voter number 176.

I though LA-02 had its own thread set up days ago. But I don;t see why we can't just cover both here. That way we will be able to comment on both races at the same time without having to change to a different thread.

LA-02 Prediction
Jefferson 82%
Cao 10%
Rahim 8%

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I thought LA got rid of run-offs for federal positions? Why are these two run-offs still happening?

I'm hoping Rahim wins, obviously. Don't really care about LA-04.

Gustav postponed the election schedule. This is the general election for these races; primary run-offs were what was held on Nov 4.

This is what you get when you have your primary, priamry runooff and general within one month of each other. Then when something happens causings it to be delayed you get this crap.

Put the Primary in July, The primary runoff in Sept and the General in Nov. That way you can delay it if need be without causing this crazy result.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

All I know is if it continues at this rate it will be 2,000 minutes before its done.


 

Caddo Parish will be the decider here.  Carmouche has it if he breaks 60; if not, I don't know.  Fleming has to get Carmouche under 58% there to have a chance.

Okay. What Parish's do Fleming have to win by a wide margin.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

With 31/640 precincts in, Carmouche has a very slight lead.
Now with 35/640 precincts in, Fleming has regained the lead.
And with 39/640 in, Carmouche is back on top. Whee.

What site do you see this on?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

With 31/640 precincts in, Carmouche has a very slight lead.
Now with 35/640 precincts in, Fleming has regained the lead.
And with 39/640 in, Carmouche is back on top. Whee.

What site do you see this on?

Where do you think?

http://dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/12/6/211425/147/1022/670216

Thanks cause the LA SOS page is slower then hell.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

With 31/640 precincts in, Carmouche has a very slight lead.
Now with 35/640 precincts in, Fleming has regained the lead.
And with 39/640 in, Carmouche is back on top. Whee.

What site do you see this on?

Where do you think?

http://dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/12/6/211425/147/1022/670216

Thanks cause the LA SOS page is slower then hell.

How ironic, that's what I've been using.

Carmouche is up 3.24 points with 94/640 in.

Now the LA SOS page is moving at a fair pace. It juist stayed at 19 precincts for so long I though they would be slow compared to others like in the MN recount where the SOS page is slower then the media sources. I guess I was wrong. 

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Fleming better pray for Carmouche's lead in Caddo to move under 60%.  Rural Caddo might be okay for Fleming, but he will continued to be massacred in Shreveport.

How much is left of Shreveport still out.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I think it would be the upset of the century if a Republican wins in New Orleans.

It would turn a few heads wouldn't it. That Louisiana for you.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

What's left of DeSoto. Is that all AA territory or something.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Carmouche won Fleming's home parish (Webster). Oops.

Already noted a few pages back.  I want to correct myself on one thing.  Fleming did perform well enough in the South - it was around Shreveport where the problems are.

If there was a GOP candidate from Shreveport would they be winning or would they do worse in the southern areas by not being from there.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Fleming just has bad luck that this race wasn't held on November 4th.

Damn Hurricanes

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

With these counties, it's often hard to make predictions because you have no clue what's coming in - white or black?  Especially in the rural areas, black areas don't necessarily report before white areas.

The Louisiana Secretary of State's election results page is one of the best.  They've even recently added maps to the text results.

You can tell exactly which precincts are out, and by looking at past races, how they voted.  And by cross-referencing Parish election board sites or newspaper articles, you can tell exactly where each precinct is.  A list of Bossier Parish's precincts, for example, are here.

Yes I am pleasantly surprised. Looks like Dardennee knows what he is doing. Unlike some states I might say.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

If Cao wins, the term "one term wonder" must have been designed with him in mind.

And you thought Nick Lampson was screwed...

Micheal Patrick Flanagan.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I say give him a year. If Cao turns out to be a sane Rep then have him challenge Vitter in a Primary. If he can beat Jefferson I think he can beat Vitter. That way he has a political future. Hell in this state it might just work. If he turns out to be crazy then he can go down to a 30 point defeat in 2010.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I say give him a year. If Cao turns out to be a sane Rep then have him challenge Vitter in a Primary. If he can beat Jefferson I think he can beat Vitter. That way he has a political future. Hell in this state it might just work. If he turns out to be crazy then he can go down to a 30 point defeat in 2010.

Cao is probably sane as Louisiana Republicans go. I'll give him that.

Sane as Bobby Jindal or Sane as David Duke both are or were LA Republicans.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Stevens' margin of defeat was lower than Jefferson's, and this is a far more Democratic district than Alaska is Republican.

Don't crow to loudly BRTD. Your party did reelect some very crooked people yourselves like Kanjorski, Murtha, Mollohan, and your party did give Jefferson a standing ovation in the House as well. Most of our corrupt people retire(Weller,Renzi, Doolittle and Craig) yours just keep running and usually get reelected.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Finally the SOS site has all Parishes reported for CD 4.

The Shreveport Times, I'm sure one of the nation's more reputable rags, reports Fleming as the apparent winner:

http://www.shreveporttimes.com/article/20081206/NEWS01/81206017

Yep, Fleming won.  For some reason, I was just marginally supporting him.  Hm.

I actually had a feling that the rest of Caddo would drop Carmouche to 58% or below and Bossier would put him over the top. I just felt it rolling that way as the results came in. 

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Stevens' margin of defeat was lower than Jefferson's, and this is a far more Democratic district than Alaska is Republican.

Don't crow to loudly BRTD. Your party did reelect some very crooked people yourselves like Kanjorski, Murtha, Mollohan, and your party did give Jefferson a standing ovation in the House as well. Most of our corrupt people retire(Weller,Renzi, Doolittle and Craig) yours just keep running and usually get reelected.

Do you have any evidence that Alan Mollohan is actually corrupt, or is it just that he's a huge pork-barreller?

Can you name me a large pork barreler who your are sure Isn't corrupt?  Most are or at the very least push the limits.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Just FYI - Carmouche conceded today.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/1208/Carmouche_concedes_to_Fleming.html?showall

I would place a heavy bet on it being likely Republican in 2010 now.