SC-Winthrop R-primary: Trump 45, Haley 37

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Trump is hard to beat in South Carolina.

I know people get pissed at me using antiquated geographical divisions but I don't care and here I go again.

There are three blocks to the GOP in most Southern states, and to understand the last three primaries you need to understand them in this fashion. This is not to say that there was not overlap and in fact understanding where the overlap occurred helps to explain who won and why.

Up Country Candidates: Huckabee, Santorum, Trump
Low Country Candidates: McCain, Gingrich and in 2016 scattered among Rubio/Cruz depending on the state.
Urban/Suburban Candidates: Romney (McCain in SC though), Romney, and Scattered among Kasich, Rubio and Cruz depending on the state.

Greenville/Spartanburg while being on the wealthier side and a large concentration of people, tends to vote against Charleston/Columbia in the primaries, though it can be closer than the rural counties around it in doing so and there are some exceptions like 2018 Governor primary. Just like Charlotte Metro often is at odds with Triangle in North Carolina in contested primaries.

McCain was able to win pluralities in the metro areas and the low country, and combined with help from Fred Thompson siphoning off up country votes, was able to beat Huckabee in 2008.

In 2012, Gingrich united a coalition of low country and up country Rurals isolating Romney in the suburbs and cities

In 2016, Trump repeated what Gingrich did and isolated Rubio into the cities and suburbs. Nikki Haley had backed Rubio in that contest, while McMaster backed Trump IIRC.


I don't think Haley can do it. I think DeSantis can though.