SC-Winthrop R-primary: Trump 45, Haley 37

[Sir Mohamed]

Not sure what to make of this. But if Trump is just up single digits against Nikki Haley in SC, DeSantis would possibly do better (apparently he wasn't polled).

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1593099052291588096

[Alben Barkley]

All the polls show a weak, vulnerable Trump right now. If that’s how he’s doing against Nikki Haley, then of course DeSantis would crush him.

[DaleCooper]

I just can't believe it. A pre-midterms poll with Trump vulnerable to Nikki Haley?

[Mr.Phips]

Why didn’t they poll DeSantis?

[Alben Barkley]

I just can't believe it. A pre-midterms poll with Trump vulnerable to Nikki Haley?

Oh yeah, this is pre-midterms too lol.

I’m not gonna be the one who declares “Trump is finished” this time as that’s burned people many times before, but he looks weaker than ever, I will say that.

[DaleCooper]

I just can't believe it. A pre-midterms poll with Trump vulnerable to Nikki Haley?

Oh yeah, this is pre-midterms too lol.

I’m not gonna be the one who declares “Trump is finished” this time as that’s burned people many times before, but he looks weaker than ever, I will say that.

Regardless of what happens, this is clearly very different than any of the other times Trump seemed weak. These aren't Lincoln Project anti-Trump Republicans. These are hardcore conservatives that want someone better, and clearly there is some momentum on their side. 

[Vosem]

Haley is a favorite daughter who remains quite popular in her home state, so I wouldn't guarantee that DeSantis is doing better than her in SC -- in fact I'd expect the reverse.

OTOH, SC is not a state with an incredibly Trumpy Republican party; in culture it's basically an extension of GA. Nancy Mace won reelection easily, and a total nobody came within single-digits of primarying Henry McMaster in 2018 -- in spite of McMaster being pretty popular overall -- making criticisms that were obvious echoes of Cruz's criticisms against Trump in 2016. Also, one of Trump's weaknesses has always been that, apart from NV (though even there he'd be vulnerable to a Mormon candidate, but not a "normal" anti-Trump Republican), the early states are kind of unfavorable ones for him. South Carolina should be a sine qua non of a DeSantis (or other non-Trump Republican) effort in 2024.

[Ljube]

Haley is a favorite daughter who remains quite popular in her home state, so I wouldn't guarantee that DeSantis is doing better than her in SC -- in fact I'd expect the reverse.

OTOH, SC is not a state with an incredibly Trumpy Republican party; in culture it's basically an extension of GA. Nancy Mace won reelection easily, and a total nobody came within single-digits of primarying Henry McMaster in 2018 -- in spite of McMaster being pretty popular overall -- making criticisms that were obvious echoes of Cruz's criticisms against Trump in 2016. Also, one of Trump's weaknesses has always been that, apart from NV (though even there he'd be vulnerable to a Mormon candidate, but not a "normal" anti-Trump Republican), the early states are kind of unfavorable ones for him. South Carolina should be a sine qua non of a DeSantis (or other non-Trump Republican) effort in 2024.

Exactly.
Trump swept South Carolina in 2016 because he had approx 27 to 30% everywhere and his opposition divided the remaining 70% in each district. Not gonna happen this time.

[2016]

@ Vosem, @Ljube,
McMaster though has endorsed Trump!

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Trump is hard to beat in South Carolina.

I know people get pissed at me using antiquated geographical divisions but I don't care and here I go again.

There are three blocks to the GOP in most Southern states, and to understand the last three primaries you need to understand them in this fashion. This is not to say that there was not overlap and in fact understanding where the overlap occurred helps to explain who won and why.

Up Country Candidates: Huckabee, Santorum, Trump
Low Country Candidates: McCain, Gingrich and in 2016 scattered among Rubio/Cruz depending on the state.
Urban/Suburban Candidates: Romney (McCain in SC though), Romney, and Scattered among Kasich, Rubio and Cruz depending on the state.

Greenville/Spartanburg while being on the wealthier side and a large concentration of people, tends to vote against Charleston/Columbia in the primaries, though it can be closer than the rural counties around it in doing so and there are some exceptions like 2018 Governor primary. Just like Charlotte Metro often is at odds with Triangle in North Carolina in contested primaries.

McCain was able to win pluralities in the metro areas and the low country, and combined with help from Fred Thompson siphoning off up country votes, was able to beat Huckabee in 2008.

In 2012, Gingrich united a coalition of low country and up country Rurals isolating Romney in the suburbs and cities

In 2016, Trump repeated what Gingrich did and isolated Rubio into the cities and suburbs. Nikki Haley had backed Rubio in that contest, while McMaster backed Trump IIRC.


I don't think Haley can do it. I think DeSantis can though.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I don't think Haley will beat Trump in a primary here. Her support is going to be limited to the Lowcountry and Columbia. Trump will clean up rural/upstate SC. The more candidates in the race will make Trump's victory much easier.

[S019]

If Haley wins or comes close in South Carolina, it's over for Trump.