Siena: NY-19 Riley +5, NY-22 Conole +4

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Zeldin massivly overperforming in both Districts.

Um, no? Doesn’t he lose handily if he pulls in these kind of numbers upstate? Overperforming federal numbers isn’t impressive when Biden won the state by 23 points. He needs to dominate.

A lot of people haven't fully computed just how big the numbers have to be for Zeldin to actually win. Unless he somehow gets monster margins from LI and Westchester, and cuts down big on Hochul's margins in NYC, he needs to win by a big margin in Upstate NY.

Yes he needs to win these places by 15 to 20 at minimum.