Leger: Trump +6, Pence +4 without Trump (Includes voters of all parties) (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 25, 2024, 09:07:11 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2024 U.S. Presidential Election
  2024 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, GeorgiaModerate, KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸)
  Leger: Trump +6, Pence +4 without Trump (Includes voters of all parties) (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Leger: Trump +6, Pence +4 without Trump (Includes voters of all parties)  (Read 2699 times)
Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
North Carolina Yankee
Moderators
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 54,118
United States


« on: November 17, 2020, 02:16:09 PM »
« edited: November 17, 2020, 02:22:04 PM by Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee »

Perhaps people who have not been listening to the likes of RinoTom enough, but there are still vast millions of Republicans living in suburbs from upper middle class backgrounds. This was Romney's core base in 2012 and in 2016 it was cracked with the immigration hawks among them backing Trump and the rest going for Kasich.

It should not come as a surprise that in an open primary for all intents and purposes that there is the potential for this vote to unify behind one candidate and for it to equal 25%-30%.

Furthermore among the more hard line conservative types here, who are heavily religious, there is still some appetite for Cruz. I talked with one yesterday, and even though he thinks Trump won this election and the courts will save him, said he would vote for Cruz if he ran against Trump in an open 2024 primary.

If I were to put this on a map, Romney would be Charlotte Metro, Cruz/Pence would be RDU area Socons and Trump would be the rural areas.



Logged
Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
North Carolina Yankee
Moderators
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 54,118
United States


« Reply #1 on: November 17, 2020, 02:21:31 PM »

Caution about polls notwithstanding, I don’t find it the HARDEST thing in the world to believe. Romney was banking on guiding the GOP back to something resembling sanity post-Trump, clearly, and it was only eight years ago he was the leader of the party. Trump won with a plurality, and although he definitely got the GOP base to fall lockstep behind him, a lot of that was softer support and polls consistently showed that even many people who said they approved of him would prefer someone else. His actual diehard base, those who are his biggest fans, has not actually grown THAT much since 2016, it seems.

In any case, if Romney does intend to run again, he should take this as an encouraging sign that there’s hope the GOP voters could be persuaded to move on. Keep in mind their last three presidential nominees (W, McCain, and Romney himself) have all been thrown under the bus and disavowed lately by much of the GOP. After they insisted to all of us Democrats we were anti-American for not supporting them. It’s a fickle party, to say the least. Don’t be too surprised when Trump is next on the chopping block.

Trump should certainly be concerned, too, if he can only keep a quarter of the party solidly in his camp even NOW, before his presidency is even over officially. If he can’t do better than that now, how the hell will he win the primary in four years?

Trump's gambit is to maintain constant exposure and press, the problem is there is such a thing as over saturation and Trump could easily nuke himself just by being a constant reminder of how he was and what he would be like again. Trump fatigue basically and Republicans are not immune to this either.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.026 seconds with 13 queries.