Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

(1) Not every anti-Trump voter is a liberal who wants Biden to have a trifecta.

I get that. However, can't Never Trumpers realize the entire Republican party has lost the right to rule?

After presiding over and not reacting approximately to a pandemic, crashed economy, a hypocritical scotus confirmation, the erosion of democratic norms, and a deservingly impeached president, the entire congressional Republicans party, minus maybe 5 people, is an apparatus of the Trump administration.

If you disapprove of the incompetence, cruelty, and fascistic tendencies of the Trump administration, your only logical move is to vote against all Republicans up and down the ballot. Only after losing multiple times can the Republican party ever redeem itself.

Not sure that turning the US into a one party state is a very compelling message to seduce center right voters.

The looming prospect of what the other side would do in that time is going to convince a lot of people to have a very short memory. This is partially why I actually do expect a lot of suburban snap back towards the Republicans, though not necessarily in Georgia.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1334175857401876482

This opinion writer 1. thinks that Qelly Loeffler is not too radical for Georgia voters, a talking point I've always found a little racist since it deligitimizes the votes of so many black residents of the third blackest state as well as overlooking Loeffler's radicalism, 2. thinks Virginia "leans blue," and 3. is a Lincoln Projectite hack who thought that Mike Pence should and could step up to handle COVID since Donald Trump wouldn't.

Checkmate Lincolnites

(you're an FF if you get the reference)

The virgin checkmated Lincolnite, versus the chad delivered unto the magistrate in the shyre in which ye dwell.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Folks on the ground in Georgia, what's your read?  What does the local coverage look like?

From 2,500 miles away, I'm seeing a lot of negative characterization of Warnock that seems like it will be pretty effective (despite being false) if he can't find a stronger retort.  Meanwhile the attempts to pin Loeffler/Perdue with financial crimes don't seem to be sticking (despite being true).  However, most of what I'm hearing out of Georgia isn't about the Senate race, it's about the Presidential race, with Trump's team essentially in an all-out war with the Republican governor, secretary of state, and state party, which looks really cringey for anyone still standing by Trump.  I'm also seeing a fair amount of "stand up for Trump by not voting for Loeffler/Perdue", but it feels like it's being over-magnified by social media.  Overall I'd say both races are Lean R, but if the Trump nonsense continues to dominate headlines and Loeffler/Perdue have a stumbling interview or two about it, or Warnock/Ossoff a really good headline-making quote about it, they could move towards toss-up.

How accurate is this? 

Not from GA but generally I agree with your analysis. At the end of the day though, this election will come down to turnout rather than attacks; attacks may help to rile up the opposing base though. Even the few number of "swing voters" there actually is probably already know how they will vote. The real power of the attacks, as I just said, is base turnout; if the GOP van paint Warnock as a socialists, basically no Democrats will buy it, but on the ground in Republican leaning communities, you might hear "Hey did you know Warnock is a socialists. You must vote on January 5th to protect your freedom". The issue with the stock trade attacks is while it paints Loeffler and Perdue as bad people, it doesn't convey to people why it's so important to vote out Perdue and Loeffler.

What happened to "these incumbents are using their public office to enrich themselves at your expense and no longer deserve to hold it. Vote for me, the challenger"? I understand why "low information" and very partisan voters don't care but college educated voters (like most Biden-Perdue ticket splitters) should respond well to this kind of attack since they value good governance.

Polarization at work, plus fear of what the other side will do with complete power.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Folks on the ground in Georgia, what's your read?  What does the local coverage look like?

From 2,500 miles away, I'm seeing a lot of negative characterization of Warnock that seems like it will be pretty effective (despite being false) if he can't find a stronger retort.  Meanwhile the attempts to pin Loeffler/Perdue with financial crimes don't seem to be sticking (despite being true).  However, most of what I'm hearing out of Georgia isn't about the Senate race, it's about the Presidential race, with Trump's team essentially in an all-out war with the Republican governor, secretary of state, and state party, which looks really cringey for anyone still standing by Trump.  I'm also seeing a fair amount of "stand up for Trump by not voting for Loeffler/Perdue", but it feels like it's being over-magnified by social media.  Overall I'd say both races are Lean R, but if the Trump nonsense continues to dominate headlines and Loeffler/Perdue have a stumbling interview or two about it, or Warnock/Ossoff a really good headline-making quote about it, they could move towards toss-up.

How accurate is this? 

Not from GA but generally I agree with your analysis. At the end of the day though, this election will come down to turnout rather than attacks; attacks may help to rile up the opposing base though. Even the few number of "swing voters" there actually is probably already know how they will vote. The real power of the attacks, as I just said, is base turnout; if the GOP van paint Warnock as a socialists, basically no Democrats will buy it, but on the ground in Republican leaning communities, you might hear "Hey did you know Warnock is a socialists. You must vote on January 5th to protect your freedom". The issue with the stock trade attacks is while it paints Loeffler and Perdue as bad people, it doesn't convey to people why it's so important to vote out Perdue and Loeffler.

What happened to "these incumbents are using their public office to enrich themselves at your expense and no longer deserve to hold it. Vote for me, the challenger"? I understand why "low information" and very partisan voters don't care but college educated voters (like most Biden-Perdue ticket splitters) should respond well to this kind of attack since they value good governance.

Polarization at work, plus fear of what the other side will do with complete power.

Bit of a tangent, and maybe just a semantic point, but 'complete power' is hardly the apt term for a 50-50 Dem Senate, a 6-seat majority in the House, and a centrist President. To the extent there's anything to 'fear' in this formulation it's the fear that the GOP loses its veto over literally any legislative change, not 'complete power' for the Democrats.

It's about perception as seen by the voters in question, these voters the previous poster had mentioned. Historically yes, but in a polarized environment these scandals matter less.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Logistical question:

The new Congress commences on January 3rd (maybe 1/4 this year because 1/3 is a Sunday).  But, the runoffs aren't until January 5th.  I presume that Loeffler will still be technically a Senator until the results are certified (and then longer if she wins), since that is a special election.  But, how will it go with the regular seat?  Will that seat be vacant until after the election, since Perdue's term is up, or will Perdue still be considered the Senator?

You're correct about Loeffler, she stays in her seat 'til the special election results are certified (& 'til 2023 if she wins it).

With regards to the regular seat, it becomes vacant on Jan. 3rd at noon & will remain so until the race is certified in either Perdue or Ossoff's favor, like how MN was short one Senator until it was determined that Franken had won.

In any event, Perdue himself is f**ked either way, though, because his Senate seniority will reset back to zero: even if he wins, he'll have technically left the Senate & rejoined, meaning he'll have fallen behind dozens of other Senators (including Loeffler herself) on the seniority hierarchy, & it'll require the Senate passing a resolution for his seniority to be restored to what it otherwise would be if he were able to be re-sworn in on Jan. 3rd.

Why are these in January anyway? They were in December in 2008 IIRC.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Logistical question:

The new Congress commences on January 3rd (maybe 1/4 this year because 1/3 is a Sunday).  But, the runoffs aren't until January 5th.  I presume that Loeffler will still be technically a Senator until the results are certified (and then longer if she wins), since that is a special election.  But, how will it go with the regular seat?  Will that seat be vacant until after the election, since Perdue's term is up, or will Perdue still be considered the Senator?

You're correct about Loeffler, she stays in her seat 'til the special election results are certified (& 'til 2023 if she wins it).

With regards to the regular seat, it becomes vacant on Jan. 3rd at noon & will remain so until the race is certified in either Perdue or Ossoff's favor, like how MN was short one Senator until it was determined that Franken had won.

In any event, Perdue himself is f**ked either way, though, because his Senate seniority will reset back to zero: even if he wins, he'll have technically left the Senate & rejoined, meaning he'll have fallen behind dozens of other Senators (including Loeffler herself) on the seniority hierarchy, & it'll require the Senate passing a resolution for his seniority to be restored to what it otherwise would be if he were able to be re-sworn in on Jan. 3rd.

Why are these in January anyway? They were in December in 2008 IIRC.

Because the federal runoff procedure that was still in-use back then (4 weeks after the 1st round) didn't comply with UOCAVA. It already takes a couple weeks to certify the 1st round's results in the 1st place, & then after that, federal law requires at least 45 days to ensure that eligible military & overseas voters can fully participate in a runoff. Hence, Jan. 5th.

Yet LA can hold a House runoff tonight?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

IMO it doesn't matter who controls the Senate.

The Democrats Dream that they can do "New Green Deal" "Court Packing" "D. C. & PR Statehood" "Ending Filibuster" pass "Heroes Act" are non existent with a 50-50 Senate and a best-case scenario 224-211 House.

Just not going to happen! Biden needed a bigger Congressional Margin to do that (Obama 2009).

Court packing and green new deal won't happen and I dont know what the heroes act is but we are definitely passing PR and DC statehood and ending the filibuster of we win the senate

Manchin already said he won't support ending the filibuster EVEN if Democrats take the Senate. Manchin wouldn't support PR & D.C. Statehood either! Dianne Feinstein also came out against ending the filibuster!

Manchin will NOT stand in the way of DC statehood, and it's absurd to suggest that he would see no problem with Americans being locked out of representation on partisan grounds.

If Warnock and Ossoff win, the only question is whether Douglass is admitted in January or February.

Democrats would need to end the filibuster in the Senate to pass D. C. Statehood House Bill. You need 60 Votes for that and both Manchin & Feinstein said that they won't end it so what are you smoking here.

Several Democrats also said they would never vote for amnesty and voted against comprehensive reform in 2006 and 2007. That is until their vote was needed in 2013 and Harry Reid gave them a call...

You seriously banking everything on Manchin or Feinstein?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

There's an article on Slate https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/12/georgia-senate-runoff-republicans-loeffler-perdue-trump.html that might be insightful to those looking to better understand the N Atlanta suburban voting patterns. It's an interview with the mayor of Sandy Springs, one of the affluent close-in northern suburbs of Atlanta that's swung pretty dramatically Democratic over the past 8 years.

Some more memorable quotes from this article:
 
"I’m hoping after Jan. 5, we can start picking up the pieces and we can put back at least part of that coalition. But it’s going to be a challenge because once you vote Democratic in three elections—2016, 2018, 2020—it quickly becomes a habit." <-- I hadn't really thoughts about it this way but it's true the ATL suburbs have now voted Dem in 3 elections in a row and it's starting to become a habit for many voters in this area

"There would appear to be about 100,000 Republicans who voted for Biden but came back and voted Republican in the Senate race and the rest of the ballot box." <-- I doubt this many self-identifying Republicans voted for Biden, but there are lot of R-leaning indies that did this election. This is the group I've been saying will decide the Senate runoffs, but I would add that many in this group also have been quite turned off by the post-Trump fraud theatrics and Loeffler and Perdue's embrace of them.

Its the same pattern really for many suburbs after 1992. After a number of elections, it becomes engrained and that is why 2006 and 2008 were bad in places like the Philly Burbs. We saw a similar dynamic in the collar of Cook after 2008-2012-2016 and of course NOVA likewise.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

56%-41% think November was fair  - CNN Exit poll

95% of Dems thought it was fair
76% of Republicans think it wasn't.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

56%-41% think November was fair  - CNN Exit poll

95% of Dems thought it was fair
76% of Republicans think it wasn't.

What about...independents?

I tried to bring it up online and that computer jammed.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Similar gender breakdown on gender

62% White, 29% Black 5% Latino 2% Asian 2% Other.

13% 18-29
23% 30-44
38% 45-64
25% 65 +

39% GOP 36% Dem 25% Indy

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Similar gender breakdown on gender

62% White, 29% Black 5% Latino 2% Asian 2% Other.

13% 18-29
23% 30-44
38% 45-64
25% 65 +

39% GOP 36% Dem 25% Indy

Those racial numbers look almost identical to the general election.

The concerning number is the age number for Democrats. The age gap among whites in the South is gigantic and younger white voters are critical for the math to work. Granted on the other hand, how many angry boomer suburbanites are voting their anger on Trump and vote Democrat as a result.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

52%-42% say contain versus rebuild economy.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

52%-42% say contain versus rebuild economy.

What’s your prediction, out of curiosity? You always have your finger on the pulse of these things.

Having spent the last 2.5 weeks in isolation and just coming off a covid infection myself, following this election wasn't exactly my highest priority. So I don't really have a good feel for it anymore.