IA-Selzer: Trump +7

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I am in utter disbelief at all these Georgia developments. It turns out that something might be going on in the Peach state and that previous Civitas poll wasn't much of an outlier.

We have been saying this for years, 2018 was confirmation of it though some people took it the opposite way.

The Sunbelt GOP is like Venice, sinking inch by inch as Boomer/Late Silent Whites die off and are displaced by far less Republican Millennials and Zoomers. 

Meanwhile the GA Democratic Party is not a wave, its sea level rise. 2020 is just the tsunami to push the process along faster.

Trump accelerated this dynamic by angering the very people that buttered the GOP's bread for decades, high end, high educated suburbanites. That was before Covid even. According to Survey USA, 77% of Georgian Suburbanites support the mask at least on the state level, the same mask Trump was mocking Biden for wearing.

Applies to Republicans just as much in IA and OH as it does for Ds in GA and TX.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

When it comes to seniors, remember that the Farm Crisis, would still be something on their minds especially with the impact of the trade war, so them voting Democrat while the rest of the electorate doesn't is actually something that makes sense for a state that was Democratic leaning from 1988-2012.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Greenfield and/or Biden need to release their statewide internals TONIGHT to rebut this. If they don’t, the next 48 hours are going to be a disaster.

Democrats being panicked is brilliant for the Biden campaign. Let everyone think it's a pure tossup election.

Great way to get out the vote in NC, GA and TX.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

20 pages within the hour?

When it comes to seniors, remember that the Farm Crisis, would still be something on their minds especially with the impact of the trade war, so them voting Democrat while the rest of the electorate doesn't is actually something that makes sense for a state that was Democratic leaning from 1988-2012.

But the rest of the electorate won't be voting Republican. Clinton won the young vote in 2016. There is no way Biden could possibly lose it, he's a far better fit.

If there is any place where I youngs could shift towards Trump, it is Iowa.


You guys need to chill. Its Iowa, and it isn't 2008 anymore. The state has retaken its place as a soft Lean/Likely Republican state like it was in the period prior to 1988.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I said almost two years ago that Finkenauer would be one of the most likely Dem flips.

Firstly, she's not a good candidate. Also there are no major cities in her district (Cedar Rapids doesn't count), not many suburbs, virtually no minorities and it's not particularly well educated. A district like that is not staying Dem in 2020 outside of New England.

But Trump only won here by about 4 points. This district is just like Cheri Bustos’ and Ron Kind’s districts, and neither of them seem in much trouble.

They may not be in trouble now, but if it is a Biden midterm in 2022, Bustos/Kind will be in trouble then. If IL Dems have half a brain, they will draw a ridiculous tentacle from Bustos' district into Chicagoland.

There is little need to draw it to Chicago Land, just strip the rurals and add Mcclean county. There isn't even enough room in Chicago land.

Time for hardcore Republican Driftless Area. I expected this in 2022, it might be coming earlier than expected.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

This is the best poll for Trump in months, and it’s an outlier with a bunch of undecideds in a small state Biden does not need to win.

Sad to see even some posters who I thought had level heads are losing their minds over this. Everything that’s ever been said about how this race is not at all like 2016 has not suddenly been erased because a single poll in a single state shows  a similar margin to 2016.

I mean, Biden was up 6 in NC with 52% earlier (did NOT happen in 2016), but you didn’t see Trumpers panic and doomers concede they were wrong and Biden’s gonna win.

Exactly, Iowa isn't determining who wins the Presidency, the overall Senate control or the House, even if all three seats flip.

Let's say Selzer is right and a premature uber Republican driftless area causes Iowa to trend even more Republican. The only other state that could possible impact is WI and for various reason it is less likely to be decisive there. Two massive urban centers (where turnout should be way up) and a massive suburban chain where Trump is likely to lose ground in (WOW).

Its like people don't understand how trends work anymore. Everyone needs to calm down and accept the eventual reality that is a sunbelt Democratic Party and a rust belt GOP.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

This is the best poll for Trump in months, and it’s an outlier with a bunch of undecideds in a small state Biden does not need to win.

Sad to see even some posters who I thought had level heads are losing their minds over this. Everything that’s ever been said about how this race is not at all like 2016 has not suddenly been erased because a single poll in a single state shows  a similar margin to 2016.

I mean, Biden was up 6 in NC with 52% earlier (did NOT happen in 2016), but you didn’t see Trumpers panic and doomers concede they were wrong and Biden’s gonna win.

Because the swing to Biden is obviously suburban.

Besides that nothing has changed since 2016.

That's why Iowa is still heavily Trump (it's gone people...don't know why this forum can't grasp this?) and Minnesota is close. But Biden is doing well in the sunbelt.

The biggest reason why Clinton lost in 2016 was because she basically gave the bird to blue collars in the Rust Belt. Pennsylvania. Wisconsin. Michigan. These states are in play again not because Bidenites here are blindly hopeful, it's because Biden is actually making a presence there and trying to swing that vote. Are all 3 of those states gonna flip? Are none of them going to? I don't know, but the Rust Belt is easily Biden's path to victory, and pretending that Biden's gains are just in the sunbelt and suburbs is dumb.

Its a rear guard action at best with non-college whites. In some states, he will regain some lost ground like parts of WI, MI and PA (SCRANTON!!!!), but we aren't going back to the days of non-college whites voting less R then College educated whites.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Q had a 6% shift to Trump
Selzer has a 7% shift to Trump.

Q shifted it to a tie because they had Biden up by 5%. Selzer had it tied previously.

This was noted before, but it got lost in the madness of this thread.