Polls are gonna go up and down based on the 278 EC map by 538. That's why leads flux file. 3.5 to 5.5 percent.
But the fact of the matter is that Trump polls at 45 to 52 percent while Biden polls 48 to 50 percent. Trump believes in TARP for corporations but doesnt believe in reform for Mainstream, that's why his 2017 tax cuts failed. So far, Trump has funded the govt 2017 failed tax cuts and failed Obamacare repeal. Thus, Joe Biden will finish reform effort and passed stalled Pelosi Bill's that raises minimum wage and campaign finance reform
If Trump ends up anywhere above 47%, he has a good chance to break the blue wall again. Don't ever underestimate a populist/quasi-protectionist campaign in the Midwest, or the stratifying of Democratic support in areas that are already heavily Democratic like CA, NY and ILL.
At the press conference today, Trump made a textbook Lincolnite/Clay argument for economic independence, hinging off energy independence, to call for being no longer dependent on foreign medicine or foreign manufacturing.
Will Biden leave Trump to this, probably not but Biden just like Hillary has a voting record that Trump can attack.