2022 Senate midterms with a Democratic president (2021-23)

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The Democrats haven't even won 2020 yet and people are already predicting midterm gains. Ironically they did the same thing in early 2009 about 2010. For months people predicted that the Democrats would expand their already large majority in 2010 because Republicans had so many swing states up and open, including Florida, PA (weird situation), OH, MO (was a swing state back then) and NH. Republicans held/gained (bc PA situation) all of them and then won six more seats beyond that.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Wisconsin flips but not PA?  

I could see Wisconsin and Pennsylvania both flipping if Trump loses traction in the Rust Belt, and Georgia could continue to trend Dem and flip, but I don't really see a high possibility of Ron Johnson's seat going down while Toomey holds on.  Pennsylvania has been looking more hostile to Republicans since 2016 than Wisconsin has, and I don't see Toomey making up that difference with his incumbency/campaigning skills. 

Republicans came out of 2018 in PA far better than they came out of 2006. Both Rendell and Casey won by more than Wolf and Casey did in 2018, Republicans ended up down 11-8 with a GOP gerrymander, and they tied the delegation this time with a fair map. Republicans also held the State House of Representatives, which they lost in 2006 and both times were with Republican drawn maps.

There was also the understanding that Pat Toomey was more conservative than Santorum so there is no way he can possibly win, which since he is now a two term Senator I think the results speak for themselves.

PA is and will remain a closely divided state and we will have to see what happens in 2020 but after McCain lost it by 10%, Dems picked up the Erie based seat (then PA-03) and secured their majority in the House, few people gave Republicans a chance. The 2010 elections are a cautionary tale of predicting long term dominance in a closely divided swing state.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Wisconsin flips but not PA?  

I could see Wisconsin and Pennsylvania both flipping if Trump loses traction in the Rust Belt, and Georgia could continue to trend Dem and flip, but I don't really see a high possibility of Ron Johnson's seat going down while Toomey holds on.  Pennsylvania has been looking more hostile to Republicans since 2016 than Wisconsin has, and I don't see Toomey making up that difference with his incumbency/campaigning skills. 

Republicans came out of 2018 in PA far better than they came out of 2006. Both Rendell and Casey won by more than Wolf and Casey did in 2018, Republicans ended up down 11-8 with a GOP gerrymander, and they tied the delegation this time with a fair map. Republicans also held the State House of Representatives, which they lost in 2006 and both times were with Republican drawn maps.

There was also the understanding that Pat Toomey was more conservative than Santorum so there is no way he can possibly win, which since he is now a two term Senator I think the results speak for themselves.

PA is and will remain a closely divided state and we will have to see what happens in 2020 but after McCain lost it by 10%, Dems picked up the Erie based seat (then PA-03) and secured their majority in the House, few people gave Republicans a chance. The 2010 elections are a cautionary tale of predicting long term dominance in a closely divided swing state.

I’m not predicting long-term Democratic dominance in PA, though?  I simply stated that Pennsylvania in recent elections has been more hostile to Pubs than Wisconsin, hence I didn’t see Ron Johnson’s seat flipping in the same theoretical election that Toomey’s seat doesn't.  Did you not understand my original post, or maybe accidentally quoted the wrong person?   

My whole post was in response to your last sentence, "I don't see Toomey making that up with his incumbency advantage/campaigning skills". Hence why I started off by saying Republicans came out of 2018 far better than 2006 and yet Toomey was able to not only win in 2010 but get reelected as well. Basically you said Toomey isn't going to overcome this disadvantage and I responded by saying he overcame a worse one already.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Wisconsin flips but not PA?  

I could see Wisconsin and Pennsylvania both flipping if Trump loses traction in the Rust Belt, and Georgia could continue to trend Dem and flip, but I don't really see a high possibility of Ron Johnson's seat going down while Toomey holds on.  Pennsylvania has been looking more hostile to Republicans since 2016 than Wisconsin has, and I don't see Toomey making up that difference with his incumbency/campaigning skills. 

Republicans came out of 2018 in PA far better than they came out of 2006. Both Rendell and Casey won by more than Wolf and Casey did in 2018, Republicans ended up down 11-8 with a GOP gerrymander, and they tied the delegation this time with a fair map. Republicans also held the State House of Representatives, which they lost in 2006 and both times were with Republican drawn maps.

There was also the understanding that Pat Toomey was more conservative than Santorum so there is no way he can possibly win, which since he is now a two term Senator I think the results speak for themselves.

PA is and will remain a closely divided state and we will have to see what happens in 2020 but after McCain lost it by 10%, Dems picked up the Erie based seat (then PA-03) and secured their majority in the House, few people gave Republicans a chance. The 2010 elections are a cautionary tale of predicting long term dominance in a closely divided swing state.

I'm  not disagreeing with your main point that PA is a closely divided state that Republicans can win in still, but I think comparing the Dem gubernatorial and Senate margins to 2006 isn't exactly fair. The country was a lot less polarized in 2006. You had Democrats win statewide races in the south by double digits in TN, AL, GA, FL, AR, and Democratic governors reelected in landslides in places like AZ, KS, OK, WY and what have you. The kinds of landslides possible in 2006 aren't possibly anymore (except in deep blue states where voters love their Democratic governors who call themselves Republicans). Essentially, when you account for the difference in national polarization, I would say that the 2018 PA Democratic showings were about as impressive as the 2006 ones. In no other swing state did Democrats overperform as much as they did across the board in Pennsylvania.

It is fair if the point is that there is a hole too deep for the GOP to climb out of. The very polarization you are talking about, means you have a higher GOP floor in the state then in 2006 and that by definition makes it easier, not harder, for the GOP to win.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

My whole post was in response to your last sentence, "I don't see Toomey making that up with his incumbency advantage/campaigning skills". Hence why I started off by saying Republicans came out of 2018 far better than 2006 and yet Toomey was able to not only win in 2010 but get reelected as well. Basically you said Toomey isn't going to overcome this disadvantage and I responded by saying he overcame a worse one already.

But Pat Toomey's not a particularly strong Pennsylvania incumbent.  He won by half a point LESS in his re-election campaign, in what was arguably PA Republicans' strongest presidential election cycle showing in nearly two decades.  If you believe that he overcame a stronger challenge in 2010 than in 2016, yet managed to do worse in what should have been an easier cycle for him, I don't see why we wouldn't be worried about his chances going into 2022.

And the entire point of my original post was not "Toomey is such a weak politician that he won't be re-elected", it was "Toomey won re-election with less than half the margin that Ron Johnson did, so I don't see why Wisconsin's seat would flip in the same scenario that Toomey's seat doesn't, especially given that if Toomey sticks to his guns on term limits for the senate like he did as a House member, it would mean he retires and both seats are open."  Hopefully you understand what I was trying to get across now.    

I never said I wasn't worried about his chances. Frankly, I find Toomey's performances to be very impressive considering how fiscally conservative he is, he isn't really a good match for the state nor its GOP base even at this point on issues like trade, but he is adapt at zig zagging to the center on social issues like guns.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Even in a Harris midterm, Rs wont win CO and NV and NH

NH and NV are possible depending on turnout variables.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I never said I wasn't worried about his chances. Frankly, I find Toomey's performances to be very impressive considering how fiscally conservative he is, he isn't really a good match for the state nor its GOP base even at this point on issues like trade, but he is adapt at zig zagging to the center on social issues like guns.

I will admit that he's done well thus far in the state given his fiscal conservatism, but if Toomey continues to have overall tightening margins like he has thus far, or collapses in the Philly burbs like the overwhelming majority of the PA GOP has recently, he's toast.  His overperformance compared to Hillary in areas like Bucks County helped push him over the top in 2016, and he only outperformed Trump by 0.1%.  As I do expect Trump to lose PA in 2020 first out of any of the Rust Belt states he flipped in 2016, I don't expect to see Toomey winning even if he does run again.  But we'll have to see!    

Trump losing helps him though and removes the drag that is causing problems in the suburbs of Philly.

I don't know about this for sure, but it is possible that Trump actually depressed Toomey's numbers in the Philly burbs in 2016, especially in Chester where Toomey actually won narrowly and Trump lost by 10%.
        Bucks
   Pat Toomey   Republican   175,898   51.82%
   Katie McGinty   Democratic   157,709   46.46%

         Hillary Clinton   Timothy Kaine   Democratic   167,060   48.42%
   Donald J. Trump   Michael R. Pence   Republican   164,361   47.64%

      
        
        Chester
   Pat Toomey   Republican   133,662   49.36%
   Katie McGinty   Democratic   127,552   47.10%

   Hillary Clinton   Timothy Kaine   Democratic   141,682   51.90%
   Donald J. Trump   Michael R. Pence   Republican   116,114   42.53%

Trumps impact could have actually reduced Toomey's margins in the Philly burbs, while helping Toomey in the rest of the state where his fiscal conservatism compared to his populism meant he unperformed him in the NE part of the state.

Also not sure where you are getting the 0.1% from. Toomey got .70% more than Trump state wide and was 4.2% higher in Bucks county and 6.83% higher in Chester. He was about 6% higher in performance in Montco and Delco as well.