Which safe R states are most likely to become swing/blue states any time soon? (user search)
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  Which safe R states are most likely to become swing/blue states any time soon? (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Pick three
#1
Kansas
 
#2
Mississippi
 
#3
Alaska
 
#4
South Carolina
 
#5
Louisiana
 
#6
Utah
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 74

Calculate results by number of options selected
Author Topic: Which safe R states are most likely to become swing/blue states any time soon?  (Read 1755 times)
Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
North Carolina Yankee
Moderators
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 54,118
United States


« on: November 23, 2017, 01:49:14 AM »

What is the Atlas obsession with MS turning Blue.
I assume people think it'll become majority-black soon.
The African American population in MS has grown by less than 2% of the total population in the last two decades. There is no evidence of that.

The size of the African-American population, and the resulting requisite percentage Republicans need to get among Whites to keep the state Republican.

The current heavily GOP numbers among MS Whites is the product of Boomer's being exceptionally Republican. So the problem for the GOP is that 85% GOP whites will be replaced by 65% GOP whites, which is not high enough to keep it Republican.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
North Carolina Yankee
Moderators
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 54,118
United States


« Reply #1 on: November 23, 2017, 01:56:30 AM »

Alaska, obviously... it's trending bluer by the minute

I could see Kansas becoming a Lean R state in ten or 20 years if Wichita and the KC suburbs become Democratic, but it will still be outnumbered by the Republicans.

South Carolina might go the way of its two neighbors eventually, but it will take longer. Mississippi's more likely than Alabama but I doubt it will go D anytime soon

what is your evidence for Alaska becoming blue?
Democrats have their best position in the state house since the early 90s, also margin of victory:

2000 – 30.5%
2004 – 25.6%
2008 – 21.5%
2012: 14%
2016: 14.7%

Also, in 2016 Trump barely cracked 50%.

   Donald J. Trump   Michael R. Pence   Republican   163,387   51.28%   3
   Hillary Clinton   Timothy Kaine   Democratic   116,454   36.55%   0
   Gary Johnson   William F. Weld   Libertarian   18,725   5.88%

   Willard Mitt Romney   Paul Ryan   Republican   164,676   54.80%   3
   Barack H. Obama   Joseph R. Biden, Jr.   Democratic   122,640   40.81%   
   Gary Johnson   James P. Gray   Libertarian   7,392   2.46%

John S. McCain, III   Sarah Palin   Republican   193,841   59.42%   3
   Barack H. Obama   Joseph R. Biden, Jr.   Democratic   123,594   37.89%

George W. Bush   Richard Cheney   Republican   190,889   61.07%   3
   John Kerry   John Edwards   Democratic   111,025   35.52%   0

George W. Bush   Richard Cheney   Republican   167,398   58.62%   3
   Albert Gore Jr.   Joseph Lieberman   Democratic   79,004   27.67%   0
   Ralph Nader   Winona LaDuke   Green   28,747   10.07%   

Except Hillary Clinton only got 5,000 more votes than John Kerry.
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