Kirk will not win. The Dems could lose PA, DE, CT, but they're not gonna lose IL.
Republicans said the same of AK, NC and VA (in 06) i'm sure. Dems shouldn't get complacent with a still rocky economy and an apparently bungled attempt at health care reform. Although, I really hope Kirk doesn't pick up this seat.
If the Dems lose ANY one of IL, PA, DE, or CT, it will be their fault. Kirk, Simmons, and Castle are ok moderates, but their states are just too Democratic and there's no way they should win and in the case of DE, you have Beau Biden. PA could vote for a GOP candidate, but Toomey is too far to the right for the Southeast and I doubt he'd win a single county in the region- Chester included. No one has won PA without at least 3 of the 5 and Specter or Sestak would be unbeatable there. The rest of the state could not outvote the Southeast and I think Sestak could match or beat Toomey in the grittier blue collar areas of the state.
I agree on MO but I would hesitate before calling Rob Portman and Kelly Ayote "weak GOP Candidates" Fisher and Hodes are not exactly strong Dems in the mold of Mark Warner or Bob Casey either.
