In 2022, there was the possibility that localized factors could have shaped the race and this worked to Republicans’ favor in some deep blue states like New York. 2022 also seemed to be a break in polarization somewhat, and I don’t expect that to be repeated in 2024.
Trump on the ticket will help Hogan as it provides contrast between "MAGA" and "moderate". There are hundreds of thousands of suburban voters out there who are frothing at the mouth to punish Trump and also get the opportunity to vote someone like Hogan. Dems have told me that Trump on the ticket hurts the R brand downballot in the suburbs, but both 2016 and 2020 show the opposite result. Sadly, Hogan will likely lose since Maryland is just too blue to overcome but I wouldn't be surprised if he makes it to single digits against Alsobrooks mainly due to his suburban support.
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