What states are anti-abortion?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Most states are pro choice, but what states do you think the majority of voters support strict abortion bans if it were to come to referendums (and assuming their state offered referendums)? This is what I'm thinking:

TX, GA, MO could really go either way

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Wyoming is really interesting because it used to be much more pro-choice. The Dakotas to an extent as well.

I don’t think Wyoming is quite as staunchly anti-abortion as OP’s map indicates. Maybe this has changed, but I always got the impression that Wyoming’s conservatism was more about wanting to be left alone by the government as opposed to the religious flavor in the South or Utah/eastern Idaho.

It's still a very social conservative state. Alaska and Montana are more libertarian.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

As noted, Mississippi voters rejected a fetal personhood amendment in 2011...and it wasn't particularly close, no won 58-41. 

A more moderate position (i.e., a 15 week ban) could probably pass in Mississippi and some other Deep South states but I don't think it would be popular nationally. 

The thing is Louisiana passed a no right to abortion amendment in 2020, and it wasn't even close outrunning Trump. Mississippi is even more conservative.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

It's hard to say what states pro-life would win a referendum because of two big questions:

-Is it conducted with off-year, midterm, or presidential turnout?  The higher the turnout, the better the pro-life side will do (since the pro-abortion side is more enthusiastic about voting right now).

-Is it a "right to abortion" or a "no right to abortion" referendum?  I think the "no" side of both of those does a couple points better than you'd expect.

In presidential year turnout, I think the pro-life side can win a yes/no referendum in Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Wyoming, Utah, Idaho, and North Dakota.  Kentucky and South Dakota would probably be dependent on which side is "no" with presidential year turnout.  South Carolina isn't totally out of the question either.

While it wouldn't win a yes/no referendum, the pro-life side would do a lot better than you'd expect in Georgia, probably just losing by a few points.

My question basically was could the pro life side win a referendum in at least one situation? Yes side/ No side 15 weeks, 6 weeks, midterm, presidential year, that's up to you decide.