Predict KY-GOV

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Beshear+4

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Beshear+4
Reeves+8

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Beshear +2-3

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I still want to stick with Beshear+3, but I might revisit this on Tuesday morning.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Prediction:



Daniel Cameron (R) - 921,375, 51.26%
Andy Beshear (D, inc.) - 875,691, 48.72%
(Write-in) - 90, 0%

Total vote estimate: 1,797,156 | Margin +R 2.54 (45,684)

I personally think Beshear will win, but right now the numbers show that Cameron will narrowly win. In all calculations, Cameron ranged from 49-51%. The fact that there is no Libertarian nominee on the ballot helps Cameron. I had a similar map to 2019 with a few flips for both sides and better suburban margins for Beshear. Despite being a popular Governor in the state, Beshear can chalk up this loss to a nationalized race due to Biden's unpopularity. I may update this on Tuesday.


This was my 2019 call. I had predicted a narrow margin for Bevin 49-47, but the map  would be a Beshear win 49-48.

I don't see how Cameron can win if he lost Elliott county.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Prediction:



Daniel Cameron (R) - 921,375, 51.26%
Andy Beshear (D, inc.) - 875,691, 48.72%
(Write-in) - 90, 0%

Total vote estimate: 1,797,156 | Margin +R 2.54 (45,684)

I personally think Beshear will win, but right now the numbers show that Cameron will narrowly win. In all calculations, Cameron ranged from 49-51%. The fact that there is no Libertarian nominee on the ballot helps Cameron. I had a similar map to 2019 with a few flips for both sides and better suburban margins for Beshear. Despite being a popular Governor in the state, Beshear can chalk up this loss to a nationalized race due to Biden's unpopularity. I may update this on Tuesday.


This was my 2019 call. I had predicted a narrow margin for Bevin 49-47, but the map obviously would be a Beshear win.

If this comes to pass it will prove approval rating doesn't mean a darn thing and tribalism and partisanship matters more.

Bashear is simply not entitled to win this race. Nor, is Cameron entitled to win this race. Who wins this race is solely the decision of Kentucky voters. If Cameron wins, an if, it merely means a majority of the voters preferred to be governed by Cameron rather than Bashear, no more, no less. Surely, you can imagine a voter who approves of Cameron more than he does Bashear. If Bashear loses, an if, I would put it down to him associating himself with people some voters don't like rather than "tribalism" or "partisanship." Since when was it wrong to judge someone with company they keep?

Never said he was entitled to win. What I said was it will prove approval ratings mean nothing.

Nor, did I quote you as saying Bashear was entitled to win. You merely implied that he was entitled to win, presumably because of his approval rating. When you cast to alternative to him winning as "tribalism," you are delegitimizing a Cameron victory [a very odd claim given Cameron will win among Whites and Bashear among Blacks.]  The "partisanship" accusation also delegitimizes a Cameron win. People support parties for a reason. There are distinctions on policy that make a difference. The same policy preferences that make one support the Republican party are apt to make one prefer Cameron over Bashear, and the policy preferences that make one support the Democrat party are apt to make one prefer Bashear over Cameron. People voting their political beliefs is not sinister.

A governor with Beshear's approval numbers should really be waltzing to victory. I think if this was a popular R incumbent in a strong blue state, they'd probably be cruising to a double-digit win like Phil Scott last year. It's just very noticeable how popular R governors in blue states still seem to crush it in reelection bids while popular D governors in red states only tend to squeak through by a whisker. Opinion polling has consistently shown that people in the state approve of Beshear's job performance, but he might well be about to get thrown out anyway because he has the wrong letter in front of his name. All the indications I see suggest Cameron has run an uninspiring campaign and has no real platform/vision; just shout Joe Biden's name a lot and hope that gets people angry and charged up to pull the R lever en masse.

Phil Scott was basically a liberal, and Charlie Baker was a centrist with a slight Dem tilt. Beshear is not a DINO, or centrist, he is pretty obviously a liberal Democrat that you could see speak at the DNC. A better comparison for someone like Beshear would be Hogan who was a moderate R in a safe state.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Prediction:



Daniel Cameron (R) - 921,375, 51.26%
Andy Beshear (D, inc.) - 875,691, 48.72%
(Write-in) - 90, 0%

Total vote estimate: 1,797,156 | Margin +R 2.54 (45,684)

I personally think Beshear will win, but right now the numbers show that Cameron will narrowly win. In all calculations, Cameron ranged from 49-51%. The fact that there is no Libertarian nominee on the ballot helps Cameron. I had a similar map to 2019 with a few flips for both sides and better suburban margins for Beshear. Despite being a popular Governor in the state, Beshear can chalk up this loss to a nationalized race due to Biden's unpopularity. I may update this on Tuesday.


This was my 2019 call. I had predicted a narrow margin for Bevin 49-47, but the map obviously would be a Beshear win.

If this comes to pass it will prove approval rating doesn't mean a darn thing and tribalism and partisanship matters more.

Bashear is simply not entitled to win this race. Nor, is Cameron entitled to win this race. Who wins this race is solely the decision of Kentucky voters. If Cameron wins, an if, it merely means a majority of the voters preferred to be governed by Cameron rather than Bashear, no more, no less. Surely, you can imagine a voter who approves of Cameron more than he does Bashear. If Bashear loses, an if, I would put it down to him associating himself with people some voters don't like rather than "tribalism" or "partisanship." Since when was it wrong to judge someone with company they keep?

Never said he was entitled to win. What I said was it will prove approval ratings mean nothing.

Nor, did I quote you as saying Bashear was entitled to win. You merely implied that he was entitled to win, presumably because of his approval rating. When you cast to alternative to him winning as "tribalism," you are delegitimizing a Cameron victory [a very odd claim given Cameron will win among Whites and Bashear among Blacks.]  The "partisanship" accusation also delegitimizes a Cameron win. People support parties for a reason. There are distinctions on policy that make a difference. The same policy preferences that make one support the Republican party are apt to make one prefer Cameron over Bashear, and the policy preferences that make one support the Democrat party are apt to make one prefer Bashear over Cameron. People voting their political beliefs is not sinister.

A governor with Beshear's approval numbers should really be waltzing to victory. I think if this was a popular R incumbent in a strong blue state, they'd probably be cruising to a double-digit win like Phil Scott last year. It's just very noticeable how popular R governors in blue states still seem to crush it in reelection bids while popular D governors in red states only tend to squeak through by a whisker. Opinion polling has consistently shown that people in the state approve of Beshear's job performance, but he might well be about to get thrown out anyway because he has the wrong letter in front of his name. All the indications I see suggest Cameron has run an uninspiring campaign and has no real platform/vision; just shout Joe Biden's name a lot and hope that gets people angry and charged up to pull the R lever en masse.

Phil Scott was basically a liberal, and Charlie Baker was a centrist with a slight Dem tilt. Beshear is not a DINO, or centrist, he is pretty obviously a liberal Democrat that you could see speak at the DNC. A better comparison for someone like Beshear would be Hogan who was a moderate R in a safe state.

And Hogan ended up winning re-election, so that portends well for Beshear.

I agree which is why I have Beshear as the slight favorite. Although I think the difference is that in 2018 Dems pretty much triaged the race, whereas Rs found a good candidate and Cameron has nationalized the race.