MI-SEN 2024 Megathread - Meijer out

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Who is the best possible candidate for the Rs?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Hopefully Rs nominate a good candidate, John James came within 2% of winning in 2020 and now with no incumbent the seat is absolutely winnable for the GOP. A credible R candidate has the ability to put this race as tossup and its totally worth it especially if Trump manages to win Michigan in 2024. Besides, they have much better chances here than Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Minnesota due to the lack of a Dem incumbent.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Moving this one from Lean D to Tossup pending the Republican Primary.

This is still Lean D, given the state of the presidential race in the state.

The presidential race isn't going to be an easy walk for Biden in Michigan. He might be favored but it will be close. Trump surprised everyone in 2016 by winning Michigan, and then again in 2020 by keeping it within 3. John James also outperformed him against incumbent Gary Peters. I think Lean D is a fair assesment for now, but imo its closer to tilt D than likely D.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I'd argue that Stabenow retiring makes this a tougher pickup for Republicans than if she ran for reelection.

Incumbency is still a net advantage vs an open seat. I'm trying to think of a single senate race that an elected incumbent lost in the general, that would have been better for the incumbent party with an open seat. Even though people like Mark Kirk and Doug Jones got destroyed, they still did better compared to an open seat situation. I had to go back to 2008 to find Ted Stevens.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Craig not being the R nominee last year might have been a blessing in disguise since he was likely going to lose to Whitmer anyway. Now he gets a fresh start in a tossup senate seat.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1719732696186777882

Looks Like Meijer getting in. Would be a strong GE candidate should he get there. (primary will be difficult)

Super weird that this race has multiple solid to decent candidates but there is seemingly no one in WI

Open seat dynamics are naturally better for prospective candidates. If I was the NRSC, I would triage Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and go all in on this race and Ohio in the midwest.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1719732696186777882

Looks Like Meijer getting in. Would be a strong GE candidate should he get there. (primary will be difficult)

Super weird that this race has multiple solid to decent candidates but there is seemingly no one in WI

Open seat dynamics are naturally better for prospective candidates. If I was the NRSC, I would triage Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and go all in on this race and Ohio in the midwest.

Yeah, Republicans are lucky Stabenow is a decade older than Baldwin and Casey.

Stabenow is actually a weaker incumbent as well. Even if she was running for re-election, Michigan would still be an easier flip than the other two.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I'm honestly impressed that the MI GOP has found decent candidates. Mike Rogers, James Craig, and Peter Meijer are all solid recruits.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

The abortion amendment worked out quite well for Dems in 2022, and they won't have that boost in 2024. However, I've wondered if it possible for them to put up another one on the ballot again by just changing up the language ever so slightly. Could be an infinite win glitch if courts allow it?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

So we will now have a Republican Primary between Mike Rogers and Peter Meijer. Fantastic Outcome as both can give Slotkin a real run for her money this fall.

Rogers is a pretty solid candidate. He represented the same area as Slotkin and thus cancels out her regional advantage. That being said, if Rogers were to win in November, his coalition would be more suburban friendly than Trump, winning Kent county, and doing better in Oakland as well. John James was less "MAGA" than Trump, but came closer to winning than him against  Gary Peters who was considered to be a star with wwc voters. Assuming Rogers is the nominee, I would probably move this to tossup.