OH-SEN 2024: Brown (D) vs Moreno (R)

[Arizona Iced Tea]

DeWine revenge tour?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Brown shouldn't be that difficult to dislodge, I maintain that the trickiest seat for the GOP is defeating Tester.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Despite Obama winning Ohio by 3% in 2012 Brown only beat Josh Mandel by 6%. So assuming the GOP candidate in this race isn't like him (very likely) and Trump wins Ohio by 8+ again (probable), it's very tricky for Brown to win.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

For people who think Brown survives in 2024, what do you have Ohio voting on the Presidential level?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Trump will win with a Republican House and a Democratic Senate.

This is basically impossible unless Rick Scott or Ted Cruz goes down.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

What makes Bernie Moreno a bad candidate?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I think Dolan would be close to locking up the seat, whereas while Moreno would be mildly favored, there is still a good opening for Brown to win. The Trump/Brown working class voters are not going to be kinder to Moreno over Dolan. They are going to be voting Sherrod anyway. What Dolan unlocks however, is being able to outrun Trump in those key urban/suburban counties like Hamilton, Montgomery, Franklin, Delaware, Cuyahoga, and Summit. By preventing Brown from making up ground in the suburbs vs Moreno, Dolan is the much stronger candidate.

People saying there is no way Brown/Tester outrun Trump by that much are being somewhat naive honestly. 18 years of incumbency is worth something, and its something that should absolutely scare Republicans. This is the same way its foolish for Dems to dismiss Hogan's senate prospects.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I think Dolan would be close to locking up the seat, whereas while Moreno would be mildly favored, there is still a good opening for Brown to win. The Trump/Brown working class voters are not going to be kinder to Moreno over Dolan. They are going to be voting Sherrod anyway. What Dolan unlocks however, is being able to outrun Trump in those key urban/suburban counties like Hamilton, Montgomery, Franklin, Delaware, Cuyahoga, and Summit. By preventing Brown from making up ground in the suburbs vs Moreno, Dolan is the much stronger candidate.

People saying there is no way Brown/Tester outrun Trump by that much are being somewhat naive honestly. 18 years of incumbency is worth something, and its something that should absolutely scare Republicans. This is the same way its foolish for Dems to dismiss Hogan's senate prospects.

Well the thing is the state has changed in those 18 years and Brown has not change with it. This is a different Ohio than the one he faced in 2006 or 2012. We have seen many examples of politicians being swept out when the electorate changes under them but they refuse to change with it.

Barring a wave year how many long term incumbents have been defeated? In recent history I can only really think of Bill Nelson and Collin Peterson.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/OregonMapGuy/status/1768438345946865674
If Brown actually did this he would win honestly.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Things are getting UGLY. One of the most vile anti gay mailers I have seen in years.

https://twitter.com/AudreyFahlberg/status/1768776722411934153

This is a terrible campaign strategy. LaRose was never going to even be in the top 2 and his campaign is close to dead. The race is between Dolan and Moreno now. Lowering LaRose's numbers will increase Dolans.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

When Vance got Trumps endorsement he started running away in the polling and survived the Dolan surge. Moreno is stagnating and Dolan is slowly inching ahead.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Ohio turnout seems fo be very low.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/gobrien86720525/status/1770460834344452387?t=qJjx6wRPFrCr4WC...

Does this suggest that Moreno will be a moderate in the Senate on LGBTQ issues?