Rate Arizona

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Lean R, it doesn't look good at all for Mark Kelly. Both Republican candidates aren't amazing, but they are much stronger than Martha McSally was. Additionally, Kelly looks much more like a Dem hack compared to moderate Sinema. The toughest obstacle of course is Biden's approval rating is horrible in the state plus a red wave year. Not saying he can't win, but he is in a pretty tough situation right now.

Democrats would like to think that there is a chance that Trump comes in and screws it up, which isn't impossible but very very unlikely. This isn't Georgia, and Trump doesn't have the same anger towards Ducey(who is hopefully retiring)/Brnovich that he does Kemp/Raffensperger. I also really doubt that many genuinely undecided voters are going to remember the Cyber Ninja stuff from over a year ago from election day and base their ballot decision off that. 

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Who do you think the GOP Nominee will be against Kelly???

It will be Brnovich unless Masters gets the Trump endorsement. I don't see him mustering more than 15% of the vote without it.