MD-SEN 2024: Cardin retiring, Hogan IN

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1755991741516128724?t=aMwSHNW7Up4hW1bd1OvOj...

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Wowowow. Obviously no chance he actually wins, but he will force Democrats to divert a lot of money into this race.

I think there is a chance, purely because it's an open seat. If he was running against the incumbent Cardin, he would be DOA, but the dynamic of elections without one are a bit different. Besides, the Dem nominee is either going to be Trone or the leftist person.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Wowowow. Obviously no chance he actually wins, but he will force Democrats to divert a lot of money into this race.

I think there is a chance, purely because it's an open seat. If he was running against the incumbent Cardin, he would be DOA, but the dynamic of elections without one are a bit different. Besides, the Dem nominee is either going to be Trone or the leftist person.

As happy as I'd be to see him in the Senate, Trump will lose MD by well over 30 points. I believe in ticket-splitting, but right now, I don't think that it can happen to that degree in a federal race.

I don't think he will win, but let's hope for the best, and I would love to see Trone go bankrupt in the process of buying out his senate seat. Also it's very likely Hogan will carry MD06, so it's possible Rs an flip that seat downballot on his coattails perhaps.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/VoteMarsha/status/1755996250992750932
I actually don't think he'll have so much trouble in the primary.

I mean its Maryland, whatever Kari Lake knockoff alternative they have doesn't even have a shot of winning. At least with Hogan they have a small chance.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I will say, though, I did not have Larry Hogan running for Senate on my bingo card… he declined to run in the past, and said he had no interest in the Senate. With the way he’s criticized Trump, I thought a No Labels/third party presidential bid from Hogan was more likely than a Senate run.

Hogan is Republicans Bullock

I disagree because Bullock was running against an incumbent. If it was an open seat, I think Bullock could have absolutely come within 5 points. The better comparison for this race would be Bredesen in 2018 TN.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Didn't a Trumpy Republican beat out whoever Hogan endorsed for governor last midterm? Why is everyone assuming he'll breeze through the primary?

His opponents are borderline no names with barely any funding.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Trone should be fine but Hogan might be able to pull it off against Alsobrooks. She is very similar to the typical Anthony Brown, Ben Jealous tier candidates he has faced in the past. And if Trump improves in Maryland a bit, that 30 pt defecit suddenly becomes a more manageable 25 point one. Factor in that Alsobrooks isn't a self funder like Trone, and suburban whites using Hogan and Trumps contrast to justify ticket splitting, a Senator Hogan starts becoming more and more of a possibility.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Any path to a Hogan GE victory will require Hogan winning back a large number of college-educated moderates and softer liberals who really do not like Trump and the current state of the Republican Party.

If Hogan wants any chance, he needs to carve out concrete positions around questions like if he will support McConnel for speaker, if he will support national legislation to enshrine abortion, ect, ect.

Any failure to take clear stances of these things will quickly erode trust and allow Dems to attack him in ways that close any path to victory.

Keeping this at safe D for now. Nearly everything has to go right for Hogan for me to move it to likely D.

Hogan will likely come out in support of abortion rights and Obamacare. I think Mitch McConnell is going to let him say what he needs to say to have the best chance of getting elected.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/WesternLensman/status/1771148570734805227?t=Ge6PJIHylAl9X7cV...

[Arizona Iced Tea]

It would also be asshaty of Trone to not give Alsobrooks a decent chunk of money if he looses. Not saying he has to open the vaults but he’d look like a sore loser if he keeps his wallet closed.

No he doesn't have to give her a cent. This is his own money from his own business and he is allowed to keep it and that decision shluld be respected. It's not even like he got it from ActBlue or anything. The only thing Alsobrooks is entitled to is an endorsement for the general from Trone.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

What percent of Romney-Clinton/Biden voters does Hogan end up getting?