WI-SEN 2022 Megathread: Who stole my cheese?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I would assume Ron Johnson is looking forward to run against the Wisconsin version of Charles Booker.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

My question is where does Barnes make up ground from Biden? I'm sure Johnson does worse in Waukesha county than his 69% in 2016 but I still think he does better than Trump's 59% in 2020. The driftless is rapidly trending away from Democrats, and Barnes isn't the best candidate to appeal there. That leaves us with Dane which he probably does well there but will it be enough ? There is Milwaukee but he will have to do better than Biden there. The Milwaukee metro isn't very big actually - it is comparable to Pittsburgh.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

My question is where does Barnes make up ground from Biden? I'm sure Johnson does worse in Waukesha county than his 69% in 2016 but I still think he does better than Trump's 59% in 2020. The driftless is rapidly trending away from Democrats, and Barnes isn't the best candidate to appeal there. That leaves us with Dane which he probably does well there but will it be enough ? There is Milwaukee but he will have to do better than Biden there. The Milwaukee metro isn't very big actually - it is comparable to Pittsburgh.

Blue Milwaukee is about 1/8th of the state and Madison about 1/10th so a swing is not enough for Barnes, they’d need to have the lowest drop off in turnout.

Perhaps Barnes could overpform in Kenosha and Racine? In 2020, it seems like the riots def had an impact on how they voted keeping arguably keeping both counties in Trump’s favor and barely budging from 2016 despite demographically one would have expected them to swing slightly left.

Overall, rural areas and small towns really are what dominates WI, but the state is competitive due to many of the rurals being relatively light R and Dems insane margins out of Dane County.

That should scare Dems, because if rural Wisconsin starts voting like rural Minnesota let alone Iowa, then it becomes a comfortably red state.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Gay marriage was massively unpopular pre Obergefell. Johnson was first elected when even LA county voted for prop 8 just 2 years prior. Vast majority of Republicans are neutral on the issue now, but I doubt it loses him votes to Mandela Barnes of all people. However he was better off keeping his mouth shut.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

The entire quote is even worse

https://twitter.com/HeartlandSignal/status/1567607996275908610

Johnson and Baldwin absolutely hate each other, so it's not surprising that he would be denigrating her in his remarks here.

One of the funniest parts of Wisconsin senate races is seeing Baldwin or Johnson actively campaign against the other. It makes sense why they don't care for each other to put it lightly. Most split senate delegations have more moderate Senators or at least more mainstream Dems and Republicans. Baldwin is one of the more progressive Democeats in the Senate, while Johnson is one of the more conservative. It speaks to how evenly split the state is.

I think Walker/Ossoff will be up there if Georgia flips this year.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I didn't expect Mandela Barnes to crumble this early. I thought the polling would have Barnes with a slight lead and Johnson outperforming Wisconsin polls and winning. However, he is now polling in the average at R+3 which is terrible news for Barnes. A 2016 sized polling error would have Johnson+9! Even if you say the polls will be accurate this time and cite 2018 Barnes still loses. Dems should just triage this race and spend that money somewhere else. Baring some unforseen event it doesn't look like Barnes can win.