2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)

[n1240]

Early and mail in vote will probably overstate McCormick's support in PA, McCrory's support in NC, and next week in GA Kemp's support. It may or may not come in first, but should be noted before people make some poorly aged claims.

PA returns will probably look similar to what we had in 2020, because they still have the same laws in place that prohibited them from opening mail ballots until 7 am today. Very early returns will be less Trumpy since it'll probably be the bigger counties posting partial mail results first, then a long wave of more Trumpy vote since some of the rural counties will start posting election day results first, as the big counties transition to reporting mostly election day, then a return to a mode where mail vote becomes more dominant. I can't necessarily expect the trend to be exactly the same as it was in 2020, but there will definitely be a level of choppiness in how the trends in initial returns look by county

[n1240]

The % reporting vote numbers from NYTimes were pretty nonsensical throughout last night, and still remain to be wildly off, here's my valuation of what's left in the R primary, and offering a scenario putting McCormick on top.

First it's worth considering the counties that have not reported a single mail-in vote -

Armstrong, Beaver, Cameron, Clarion, Forest, Franklin, Greene, Mercer, Mifflin, Monroe, Montour, and Tioga

I don't know the exact amount to expect from these counties, but I have a pretty good estimate which I can refine when I have the updated absentee voter file. As of now, I expect around 9000 votes from these counties that McCormick will net around 1000 votes in, due to the favorable margins he generally achieved in these counties

Next, I'll consider the counties that have reported fewer mail-in votes than ballots reported as received as of Tuesday morning:

Berks, Blair, Bradford, Carbon, Centre, Chester, Clinton, Crawford, Dauphin, Erie, Lancaster, Lebanon, Luzerene, Philadelphia.

The biggest chunk of votes from these counties will be from Lancaster which had processing issues, around 5000 should be expected. Luzerene should have more than 2000 , Berks, Blair, Erie, Crawford and Philadelphia should have more than 1000 each, the rest relatively smaller amounts. Cumulatively these counties should have around 10000 votes (excluding Lancaster) which McCormick may net around 800 votes from. It's worth noting that these votes generally aren't necessarily cast "later", so I don't think it should be expected that these votes will vary significantly from the initial early mail votes in these counties.

Lancaster appears to be an interesting case - McCormick should net around 500 votes based on election day looked like here, however in the initial mail ballot drop, Oz had slightly more votes than McCormick, which is an extremely odd result considering no other county in the state had McCormick ahead of Oz on election day and behind on early vote. Would think it could just be a very unrepresentative sample and it reverts to the norm, but if it doesn't then it's a serious blow to McCormick's chances

Next it is worth considering Allegheny and Montgomery counties - both counties have only reported slightly more mail votes than what they reported to have received as of Tuesday morning, so I'd assume that they do have more to vote, but can't confirm this yet (will be able to confirm more strongly when I get the absentee file). Allegheny I'd probably expect around 1500 votes which McCormick nets 300 from, and Montgomery maybe 500 which McCormick nets <50 from.

There is some election day from Allegheny and Philadelphia respectively as well, but I think together they'll be a wash with no net towards either candidate.

So overall, I've proposed a fairly reasonable scenario where McCormick ends up taking the lead by less than 100 votes, which around 27k votes counted. Obviously it probably won't play out exactly like this but this was just an exercise to demonstrate the reasonability of McCormick winning off the remaining mail vote, along with reconsidering some assumptions, but I think it's extremely likely the race will end within a 500 vote margin in either direction before a potential recount. I'll try and refine my estimates later when I get the updated absentee file to better refine the distribution of remaining mail.

[n1240]

Out of only 332 mail votes that just dropped in Erie, McCormick gained *40* votes. A 57-43 margin over Oz

If the estimates are true that 50k votes are left to count, I don’t see how McCormick doesn’t come close to tying it

There aren't 50K. There were at most 32K mail-ins, but that was earlier this morning, so there's probably like only 25-30k left now.

Kornacki says it’s more than 32k

Kornacki's analysis was flawed because he forgot to account for undervote and write-ins, it's probably closer to around 20k mail left after what was been counted so far today.

[n1240]

@Nova Green,
NY Times says 77 % of the 5th District Vote is in
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/05/17/us/elections/results-oregon-us-house-district-5.html

For my part I have seen enough, McLeod-Skinner defeats Schrader.

The NYTimes estimate is still very garbage for Clackamas County (in reality it's probably around 25k) but McLeod-Skinner will still almost certainly win, given the absurd margin Schrader would need to win by.