2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

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https://twitter.com/DeFede/status/1323699365077258242

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https://twitter.com/PhilPrazan/status/1323747428730896385

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Boone county partially in IN-05 is Trump+16 and about 86% of their 2016 turnout (was Trump+29)

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Biden+10 in Maricopa

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Biden+15 in Douglas county Nebraska.

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Clark NV

Biden 388772 (54.41%)
Trump 314646 (44.04%)
Total 714520

Biden statewide lead about 50k in NV right now I believe

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Kenosha actually finished mail a while ago

https://twitter.com/CassidyWtv/status/1323916855556349954?s=19

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Results aren't final in Detroit yet and a decent chunk of these aren't included in Wayne County reports but this is what the vote is like right now there:

Biden 201841
Trump 10978

Unfortunately it is hard to parse together what is and what isn't included in the Wayne County result to get a better estimate of Biden's standing there, but would still think he can reach Clinton's raw margin from 2016.

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FYI - Wayne County would still only be 54% reporting after this update.

Their precincts reporting count is weird and is definitely not right but there are probably at least 100k absentees outstanding + some eday vote. Could milk out 200-250k more total votes out of Wayne.

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Ingham County just finished counting -

Recent dump:
 
Biden 29859
Trump 6916

Total:

Biden 94221 (65.2%)
Trump 47640 (33.3%)

Big improvement from Clinton 2016 and helps Biden inch closer to a likely victory in Michigan.

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Can anyone TLDR on how much is out in GA and when its expected?

Biggest vote sinks are DeKalb with about 133k (in-person early + mail mix) and Fulton with 60k (mail). Houston missing all mail-in (about 20k). Chatham missing significant amount of mail-in (about 21k).

Some may report today, others could take an extra day or two.

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New batch from Brown

Biden 25036
Trump 21123

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So, do the Green Bay numbers mean that Trump is basically out of votes in Wisconsin?

Yeah everything except Richland (which Biden also probably wins on their outstanding ballots) in terms of what is left to be counted.

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So, do the Green Bay numbers mean that Trump is basically out of votes in Wisconsin?

Yeah everything except Richland (which Biden also probably wins on their outstanding ballots) in terms of what is left to be counted.

So there's Richland, a little bit of Eau Claire and Milwaukee, and then the Biden gains from Kenosha that're for some reason taking forever to get released?

Eau Claire is likely done based on their county website. Milwaukee also seems effectively done.

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New dump from Macomb

Biden 36733
Trump 25391

Still some absentee votes left to count here but Biden keeps narrowing the margin here.

Media results seem to be missing Ingham county final results still so Trump lead in Michigan is something like 30k right now. Biden could very well end up winning the state by around 3%.

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The New York Times hilariously has Peters winning Genesee County while Biden loses it. I'm assuming that's an error.

It would be an error on part of Genessee County then, because the results were from the county site, which were just recently updated. Peters is doing better than Biden here.

https://www.gc4me.com/departments/county_clerks1/docs/Elections/202011/Cumulative%20Results-11-4-2020%2007-04-43%20AM.pdf

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https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/1323967408311279616

Trump has since increased his lead to 27,398.

They're using DDHQ which is missing Monroe County, while other sources which is where you got the 27,398 from have it.

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Recent batch from Montgomery County (mail)

Biden 25857 (84.2%)
Trump 4792 (15.6%)

83k outstanding in the county

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Yeah, speaking of what Dave said, do we have a list of completed counties in PA and their shift from 16?

For most part I defined counties as having greater than 100% of 2016 vote to be completed with a couple exceptions.



Basically Trump is doing roughly the same margin wise in rural areas on average while Biden is doing better in two pop centers (Dauphin and Lackawanna).  Turnout wise the rurals generally have a bit higher vote relative to 2016 compared to the two Biden counties, but it isn't really that different (Dauphin and Lackawanna are both about 8% higher, rurals about 10% higher on average).

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Wayne still has a lot of juice, along with healthy absentee chunks remaining in Kent and Kalamazoo. Definitely don't think Michigan will be that close in the end.

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Biden ahead in MI by ~3k votes now.

He is now leading by ~25k!

Peters is also leading by ~1250 votes according to DDHQ

If you're using DDHQ, they're lagging behind because they're missing results in Monroe County which is a modestly pro-Trump county.

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Chester PA recent mail dump

Biden 24570 (80.8%)
Trump 5447 (17.9%)

50k mail-in outstanding in the county.

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Chester PA recent mail dump

Biden 24570 (80.8%)
Trump 5447 (17.9%)

50k mail-in outstanding in the county.

if all of these dumps are as pro-Biden as this, things are looking good.

Biden vote sinks are looking very good compared to 2016. Montgomery county has about the same number of votes for Biden that Clinton had, and Trump same number of votes that he had in 2016, but 70k mail-in still outstanding in the county, so he's clearly on pace to blow out his margin there.

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Northampton county appears to be done with their absentee count (at least what arrived up to yesterday)

Countywide total:

Biden 83163 (49.5%)
Trump 82416 (49.1%)

Trump won this county by 3.8% in 2016.

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Philadelphia new mail-in batch

Biden 40984
Trump 3329

Biden wins these by 85%, approximately 160k uncounted mail in the county.