2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[n1240]

NC 10/23, day 8 early in-person vote:

Dem 71094 (30.7%)
Rep 888129 (38.0%)
Una 72576 (31.3%)
Total 231799

compared to day 7 in 2016

Dem 94466 (39.6%)
Rep 81940 (34.4%)
Una 61912 (26.0%)
Total 238318

Current Total (in-person only)

Dem 845130 (38.5%)
Rep 732715 (33.4%)
Una 616315 (28.1%)
Total 2194160

Current Total (cumulative absentee)

Dem 1206995 (41.0%)
Rep 879222 (29.9%)
Una 858117 (29.1%)
Total 2944334

Cumulative Total at same time 2016

Dem 651693 (44.5%)
Rep 451509 (30.8%)
Una 361736 (24.7%)
Total 1464938

GOP raw early vote higher than yesterday has Dem vote drops a bit, but Dems still maintain substantial early vote lead and the cumulative early vote total is about 250k short of 2016 now and probably passes it by Monday.

[n1240]

NC 10/23, day 8 early in-person vote:

Dem 71094 (30.7%)
Rep 888129 (38.0%)
Una 72576 (31.3%)
Total 231799

compared to day 7 in 2016

Dem 94466 (39.6%)
Rep 81940 (34.4%)
Una 61912 (26.0%)
Total 238318

Current Total (in-person only)

Dem 845130 (38.5%)
Rep 732715 (33.4%)
Una 616315 (28.1%)
Total 2194160

Current Total (cumulative absentee)

Dem 1206995 (41.0%)
Rep 879222 (29.9%)
Una 858117 (29.1%)
Total 2944334

Cumulative Total at same time 2016

Dem 651693 (44.5%)
Rep 451509 (30.8%)
Una 361736 (24.7%)
Total 1464938

GOP raw early vote higher than yesterday has Dem vote drops a bit, but Dems still maintain substantial early vote lead and the cumulative early vote total is about 250k short of 2016 now and probably passes it by Monday.

Seems like quite a bit more unaffiliated vs 2016?

Yeah the unaffiliated raw vote is already higher than 2016 early (839k final in 2016 and now 858k with a week to go).

[n1240]

Is someone keeping track of how many mail ballots are being received every day in FL and NC, and what their breakdown is? There are still 40% of requested ballots unreturned in Florida and almost 50% in NC, any expectation how much of this will drop by election day?

NC can continue to receive ballots after election day (unless the SCOTUS doesn't weigh in or something) but that might create chaos on election day, and Florida can't, so getting that return rate up seems like a priority for Democrats.

NC is pretty easy, haven't really been tracking Florida that closely tbh.

[n1240]

An interesting bit of insight from Nate Cohn with regard to ballot counting in Arizona:

https://mobile.twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1319969436137410562

Thing is I think there are going to be two conflicting factors in play, with R's doing better on on election day and more liberal/younger voters returning their mail-in ballots later as usual. Could be early Biden lead, then Trump comes back by end of election night or takes the lead, then Biden takes the lead once all is said and done. It'll be hard to quantify in each direction though, while the late mail vote having a Dem bias in general is an established trend seen in other elections, it might be hard to determine how large of an impact it will have this year - it's possible a chunk of Dem leaning voters who typically return their votes later on are returning it earlier this year.

[n1240]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1320129918232109056

[n1240]

Anyone know if NY will be reporting daily voting totals?

NY is very bad at reporting this type of stuff historically, definitely not expecting anything from the statewide BOE. Some counties may report them individually though, and I think NYC reports early in-person vote count daily during the early in-person voting period.

[n1240]

For the EV doomers in particular:

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1320133444144406538

Someone in the replies makes the point that, since Trump has demonized mail-in voting so much, the Republicans who actually are voting by mail at this point may be disproportionately Biden voters. Which makes sense to  me.

Yeah I think it's pretty likely that Biden does quite well among Republicans voting by mail relatively. I think up to 20% of Republican mail-in votes in Philly burbs in the PA primary were non-Trump votes

[n1240]

NC 10/24, day 9 early in-person vote:

Dem 43238 (34.8%)
Rep 46265 (37.2%)
Una 34887 (28.0%)
Total 124390

compared to day 9 in 2016

Dem 57744 (40.7%)
Rep 46591 (32.8%)
Una 37589 (26.5%)
Total 141924

Current Total (in-person only)

Dem 888368 (38.3%)
Rep 778980 (33.6%)
Una 651202 (28.1%)

Current Total (cumulative absentee)

Dem 1255960 (40.7%)
Rep 929324 (30.1%)
Una 901697 (29.2%)

Cumulative Total at same time 2016

Dem 710897 (44.1%)
Rep 499922 (31.0%)
Una 400644 (24.9%)
Total 1611463

GOP wins early in-person vote for 5th consecutive day but by smaller margin than previous days, only chip into the overall Dem raw ballot lead by 1k votes after considering mail-in vote.

[n1240]

NC 10/24, day 9 early in-person vote:

Dem 43238 (34.8%)
Rep 46265 (37.2%)
Una 34887 (28.0%)
Total 124390

compared to day 9 in 2016

Dem 57744 (40.7%)
Rep 46591 (32.8%)
Una 37589 (26.5%)
Total 141924

Current Total (in-person only)

Dem 888368 (38.3%)
Rep 778980 (33.6%)
Una 651202 (28.1%)

Current Total (cumulative absentee)

Dem 1255960 (40.7%)
Rep 929324 (30.1%)
Una 901697 (29.2%)

Cumulative Total at same time 2016

Dem 710897 (44.1%)
Rep 499922 (31.0%)
Una 400644 (24.9%)
Total 1611463

GOP wins early in-person vote for 5th consecutive day but by smaller margin than previous days, only chip into the overall Dem raw ballot lead by 1k votes after considering mail-in vote.

If Saturday was this meh for the GOP, I think Dems may actually end up winning the day today with Souls to the Polls

Last weekend Dems did better on Saturday than they did on Friday, and better than Sunday than on Friday in terms of % of vote, so it's a reasonable expectation to think Dems win in-person early vote today.

[n1240]

NC 10/25, day 10 early in-person vote:

Dem 22810 (35.2%)
Rep 21377 (33.0%)
Una 20530 (31.7%)
Total 64717

compared to day 9 in 2016

Dem 21048 (48.8%)
Rep 10711 (24.8%)
Una 11405 (26.4%)
Total 43164

Current Total (in-person only)

Dem 911178 (38.2%)
Rep 800357 (33.6%)
Una 671732 (28.2%)
Total 2383267

Current Total (cumulative absentee)

Dem 1281302 (40.6%)
Rep 952136 (30.2%)
Una 924243 (29.3%)
Total 3157681

Cumulative Total at same time 2016

Dem 731945 (44.2%)
Rep 510633 (30.9%)
Una 412049 (24.9%)
Total 1654627

Dems manage to bolster their large lead slightly by narrowly winning early in-person vote yesterday, ending the streak of consecutive days where GOP was doing better. Early vote total is currently 35k short of 2016's final early vote total (mail + in-person) and will likely pass it sometime today.

[n1240]

NC 10/25, day 10 early in-person vote:

Dem 22810 (38.2%)
Rep 21377 (33.6%)
Una 20530 (28.2%)
Total 64717

compared to day 9 in 2016

Dem 21048 (48.8%)
Rep 10711 (24.8%)
Una 11405 (26.4%)
Total 43164

Current Total (in-person only)

Dem 911178 (38.2%)
Rep 800357 (33.6%)
Una 671732 (28.2%)
Total 2383267

Current Total (cumulative absentee)

Dem 1281302 (40.6%)
Rep 952136 (30.2%)
Una 924243 (29.3%)
Total 3157681

Cumulative Total at same time 2016

Dem 731945 (44.2%)
Rep 510633 (30.9%)
Una 412049 (24.9%)
Total 1654627

Dems manage to bolster their large lead slightly by narrowly winning early in-person vote yesterday, ending the streak of consecutive days where GOP was doing better. Early vote total is currently 35k short of 2016's final early vote total (mail + in-person) and will likely pass it sometime today.

Wait, how did Dems overall % lead go down when they won the day in both in person and mail?

Won today by 3.3% (2.2% on just in-person, I input the total in-person early percentages on accident for yesterday's in-person early, just edited my post to correct percentages).

[n1240]

Think this happened a few hours ago but NC has passed their 2016 early vote total (currently at 3.26 million, was 3.19 million in 2016). At current pace I think they'll reach 90% of 2016 total turnout by the end of the early voting period.

[n1240]

The mixed primary / last voted in D primary percentage compared to mixed primary / last voted in R primary and previous elections is pretty interesting. Of course it's a small percentage overall but it could provide a signal that Dems are doing comparatively strong among the voters without prior primary or general election history.

[n1240]

NC 10/26, day 11 early in-person vote:

Dem 65330 (30.8%)
Rep 82641 (38.9%)
Una 64323 (30.3%)
Total 212294

compared to day 11 in 2016

Dem 91127 (40.2%)
Rep 77740 (34.3%)
Una 57547 (25.4%)
Total 226414

Current Total (in-person only)

Dem 976508 (37.6%)
Rep 882998 (34.0%)
Una 736055 (28.4%)
Total 2595561

Current Total (cumulative absentee)

Dem 1356540 (39.9%)
Rep 1041160 (30.7%)
Una 999173 (29.4%)
Total 3396873

Cumulative Total at same time 2016

Dem 823072 (43.8%)
Rep 588373 (31.3%)
Una 469596 (25.0%)
Total 1881041

GOP gets back to the pace they were hitting on Friday in early vote, to chip away at the Dem lead a bit, which still remains substantial (314k raw ballot lead). Current overall total is also about 200k more ballots cast than 2016, and the Dem raw ballot lead is slightly higher than the final 2016 lead (Dems led by 304k ballots at the end of the 2016 early voting period).

[n1240]

The return rate for NC mail-in ballots is just 54% right now, significantly lower than Florida (where it's past 2/3) let alone other states where it's reaching 80%. Any idea why that is? And how much of a concern is that? Should we expect it to pick up soon, and where do you think it will end up on Election Day?

Not sure, I'll probably have to review old return rates in NC or maybe check if voters who requested a ballot changed their mind and decided to vote in-person instead. I think the rate of return should pick up a bit, as it has over the past week and speed up relatively closer to election day, at least based on my tracking of other elections. I don't think the current return rate is that concerning considering Dems are maintaining a decent overall lead, but it definitely could be better. 80% is still a baseline of what I'd expect, but I'll need to review things before I can make a better estimate.

[n1240]

NC 10/27, day 12 early in-person vote:

Dem 61395 (30.1%)
Rep 78437 (38.5%)
Una 63842 (31.3%)
Total 203674

compared to day 12 in 2016

Dem 88695 (39.2%)
Rep 78099 (34.5%)
Una 59446 (26.3%)
Total 226240

Current Total (in-person only)

Dem 1037903 (37.0%)
Rep 961435 (34.3%)
Una 799897 (28.6%)
Total 2799235

Current Total (cumulative absentee)

Dem 1432590 (39.4%)
Rep 1122985 (31.1%)
Una 1068317 (29.6%)
Total 3614892

Cumulative Total at same time 2016

Dem 911767 (43.3%)
Rep 666472 (31.6%)
Una 529042 (25.1%)

Similar trend as last three weekdays, D/R split being roughly 30/38 among early in-person voters and total amount of single day voters going down a bit. Unaffiliated voters are also consistently making up more than 30% of single day vote, and a considerably higher number of unaffiliated voters have voted early compared to 2016 now (total early vote is 13% higher than 2016 final early vote total, unaffiliated vote is 27% higher). D vs R raw gap is now smaller than 2016 final total (301k now vs 304k final in 2016), but overall total is also 42k higher.

[n1240]

NC 10/27, day 12 early in-person vote:

Dem 61395 (30.1%)
Rep 78437 (38.5%)
Una 63842 (31.3%)
Total 203674

compared to day 12 in 2016

Dem 88695 (39.2%)
Rep 78099 (34.5%)
Una 59446 (26.3%)
Total 226240

Current Total (in-person only)

Dem 1037903 (37.0%)
Rep 961435 (34.3%)
Una 799897 (28.6%)
Total 2799235

Current Total (cumulative absentee)

Dem 1432590 (39.4%)
Rep 1122985 (31.1%)
Una 1068317 (29.6%)
Total 3614892

Cumulative Total at same time 2016

Dem 911767 (43.3%)
Rep 666472 (31.6%)
Una 529042 (25.1%)

Similar trend as last three weekdays, D/R split being roughly 30/38 among early in-person voters and total amount of single day voters going down a bit. Unaffiliated voters are also consistently making up more than 30% of single day vote, and a considerably higher number of unaffiliated voters have voted early compared to 2016 now (total early vote is 13% higher than 2016 final early vote total, unaffiliated vote is 27% higher). D vs R raw gap is now smaller than 2016 final total (301k now vs 304k final in 2016), but overall total is also 42k higher.

What was the final EV total in 2016 again?

Dem 1327487 (41.6%)
Rep 1023651 (32.1%)
Una 839455 (26.3%)
Total 3190593

[n1240]

NC 10/28, day 13 early in-person vote:

Dem 59066 (29.2%)
Rep 77320 (38.3%)
Una 65753 (32.5%)
Total 202139

compared to day 12 in 2016

Dem 93736 (38.5%)
Rep 83495 (34.3%)
Una 66344 (27.2%)
Total 243575

Current Total (in-person only)

Dem 1096969 (36.5%)
Rep 1038755 (34.6%)
Una 865650 (28.8%)
Total 3001374

Current Total (cumulative absentee)

Dem 1493822 (38.8%)
Rep 1208633 (31.4%)
Una 1146929 (29.8%)
Total 3849384

Cumulative Total at same time 2016

Dem 1005503 (42.7%)
Rep 749967 (31.9%)
Una 595386 (25.3%)
Total 2350856

R lead in early in-person vote gradually increasing each weekday once again, but total votes down. Interestingly the raw number of unaffiliated voters who voted early in-person yesterday was higher than two days ago, while the raw number of D and R voters decreased. The share of unaffiliated voters voting by mail is also interestingly high, 40% of new mail-in ballots were from unaffiliated voters (35% Dem, 25% GOP).

[n1240]

NC 10/29, day 14 early in-person vote (quick update, will add 2016 comps later):

Dem 52142 (28.5%)
Rep 69418 (38.0%)
Una 61158 (33.5%)
Total 182718

Current Total (in-person only)

Dem 1149111 (36.1%)
Rep 1108173 (34.8%)
Una 926808 (29.1%)
Total 3184092

Current Total (cumulative absentee)

Dem 1556483 (38.3%)
Rep 1286508 (31.7%)
Una 1220771 (30.0%)
Total 4063762

[n1240]

What day is last day of NC early vote?

Also, wow. NC at 86% of 2016 turnout.

Tomorrow with reduced hours (most close around 3 pm instead of 7/8 pm I think).

[n1240]

NC 10/28, day 15 early in-person vote:

Dem 69303 (29.4%)
Rep 86121 (36.6%)
Una 80076 (34.0%)
Total 235500

compared to day 15 in 2016

Dem 117430 (37.7%)
Rep 103153 (33.1%)
Una 90631 (29.1%)
Total 311214

Current Total (in-person only)

Dem 1218414 (35.6%)
Rep 1194294 (34.9%)
Una 1006884 (29.4%)
Total 3419592

Current Total (cumulative absentee)

Dem 1633774 (37.8%)
Rep 1378537 (31.9%)
Una 1310505 (30.3%)
Total 4322816

Bit of an uptick in early in-person vote raw total, likely due to being the last in-person early weekday, Rep margin lead is slightly smaller than yesterday, but their gain in raw ballot lead is roughly the same as yesterday. The trend of unaffiliated voters increasing also continues, the overall share of unaffiliated voters is considerably larger than 2016 in early voting (26.3% vs 30.3%). Planning on posting a bit of an analysis on unaffiliated voters in a bit. Another thing that I haven't been tracking that closely but probably should've is the % of non 2016 voters. I'm not sure how to determine this myself with the available data but from ElectProject the share has gone from 26.8% to 27.6% today. That means roughly 40% of the voters who voted yesterday did not vote in 2016.

[n1240]

NC 11/01, final day of early in-person vote

Dem 54116 (33.0%)
Rep 54727 (33.4%)
Una 54916 (33.5%)
Total 163759

compared to final day in 2016

Dem 83034 (41.6%)
Rep 59063 (29.6%)
Una 57372 (28.8%)
Total 199469

Current Total (in-person only)

Dem 1272530 (35.5%)
Rep 1249021 (34.9%)
Una 1061800 (29.6%)
Total 3583351

Current Total (cumulative absentee)

Dem 1694831 (37.6%)
Rep 1438047 (31.9%)
Una 1374183 (30.5%)
Total 4507061

Interestingly unaffiliated voters voted at highest rate on the last day of early in-person voting in North Carolina, and the gap between D and R is marginal, Dem raw vote margin expanded slightly after considering new mail-in ballots received. Still time for some mail-in ballots to arrive, but NC ends the early vote period at 95% of 2016 total vote.

[n1240]

NC share of non-2016 voters over recent days has been impressive. On Friday 40% of voters did not vote in 2016, yesterday 45% of voters did not vote in 2016.

[n1240]

Any word on NC? I imagine Democrats would want to do better today, with Souls to the Polls and all.

Early in-person ended yesterday in NC.

[n1240]

Seems unlikely there will be a "massive surge" for Trump on ED in NC

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1323276663703166978

He's misinterpreting the data. 72% of black voters already voted in the survey, and 30% of those who indicated they haven't are indicating they will vote on election day, which comes out to 8.4% of black voters voting on election day.