Congressional Primary Results Megathread

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https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1267950961923969025?s=20

Might be waiting a while. Too many people didn't get the EV memo.

Yeah it is quite unfortunate, here in Lake County they only received 27338 ballots compared to 15373 in 2016 - granted 2016 was much more competitive but the relative increase given that everyone could've requested an absentee ballot online is pretty disappointing. Only took me a few minutes to request ballots for me, my sister, and my mom and we received the ballots only a few days after requesting them.

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First reasonably large update from IN-01

Mrvan 8001 41.1%
McDermott 5656 29.0%
Reardon 1559 8.0%
Borom 1532 7.9%

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Hale has slightly increased her lead slightly over Thornton as a more of IN-05 comes in:

Christina Hale - 3,077 (33.1%)
Dee Thornton - 2,690 (29.0%)
Andy Jacobs - 1,935 (20.8%)
Jennifer Christie - 1,455 (15.7%)   
Ralph Spelbring - 126 (1.4%)

9,283 votes, 98 of 596 precincts reporting

Hale leads by a very large margin in first Marion County report

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First reasonably large update from IN-01

Mrvan 8001 41.1%
McDermott 5656 29.0%
Reardon 1559 8.0%
Borom 1532 7.9%

Hopefully that sticks, McDermott would be terrible

It's coming from Lake (which they both rep in different capacities) so if the results are evenly sampled then Mrvan probably carries it using the other counties via the Vis endorsement.

McDermott doing well in LaPorte oddly enough (even though it's a pretty small percentage of the district as a whole).

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Woodbury County

Feenstra 2981 38%
King 2570 33%
Taylor 1474 19%

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Feenstra leads by a very large margin in Plymouth County, which is in his district, if he leads by a comparable margin in Sioux county it could be real bad for King.

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Sioux County

Feenstra 4229 82.8%
King 712 13.9%

Stick a fork in it

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Can't find any corroborating data anywhere else but BOTH of Idaho's incumbent congressman are about 10 pts away from being primaried. The only source I can find is a local station:

https://www.kmvt.com/elections/?configID=2147

Almost certainly test data since virtually every 2 way race is 55/45

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For PA-08, aren't there mail-in ballots that need to be counted?

Probably, some counties have dumped their absentees votes while others haven't, looking at Lackawanna they're apparently 100% reporting but have 25% of their 2016 turnout (at least comparing the dem primary numbers), so almost certaintly there are absentee votes to be counted there

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Mr. Bognet is the apparent winner in PA-8 R

That completes PA

Lackawanna county hasn't counted absentees.

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Swearengin leads Ojeda by 28% on early vote in Monongalia County.

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Swearengin also up big in Jefferson County, Ojeda narrowly leads in Cabell (where Richie Robb is doing quite well).

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GA-7 D: RUNOFF between Bourdeaux and Romero
GA-13 D: RUNOFF between Scott and Waites

How can you declare either of these races a runoff? Looking at GA-07 in particular, half of Gwinnett has not yet reported mail-in absentees, and Forsyth hasn't reported any mail-in absentees. Bourdeaux is doing very well in the mail-in absentees reported in Gwinnett, earning 67% of the vote among them (whilst winning 48% of the vote in these precincts overall). Based on this information I think she will avoid a runoff.

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GA-7 D: RUNOFF between Bourdeaux and Romero
GA-13 D: RUNOFF between Scott and Waites

How can you declare either of these races a runoff? Looking at GA-07 in particular, half of Gwinnett has not yet reported mail-in absentees, and Forsyth hasn't reported any mail-in absentees. Bourdeaux is doing very well in the mail-in absentees reported in Gwinnett, earning 67% of the vote among them (whilst winning 48% of the vote in these precincts overall). Based on this information I think she will avoid a runoff.

I did not make either call until the AP did in either case here. So take it up with the AP.

Fair, irresponsible call by the AP in my opinion then.

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Terry Neese holds 13 vote lead (.12%) over Stephanie Bice from early vote in OK-05 GOP primary.

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https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1280652835416408067

Could be premature but we'll see!

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Mehta just took the lead over Singh in the Republican primary for Senate and it looks like his lead will get a little bigger BUT it seems that all that's been counted in New Jersey are early and mail-in ballots and I would wager that in-person votes may favor Singh (who campaigned as a more right-wing alternative to Mehta) considering the trend across the country.

Traditional in-person vote is essentially non-existent but is somewhat supplemented by late mail-ins / ballot dropoffs. Seems like New Jersey has effectively held this election like heavy/all mail-in states on the west coast do.

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Mehta just took the lead over Singh in the Republican primary for Senate and it looks like his lead will get a little bigger BUT it seems that all that's been counted in New Jersey are early and mail-in ballots and I would wager that in-person votes may favor Singh (who campaigned as a more right-wing alternative to Mehta) considering the trend across the country.

Traditional in-person vote is essentially non-existent but is somewhat supplemented by late mail-ins / ballot dropoffs. Seems like New Jersey has effectively held this election like heavy/all mail-in states on the west coast do.

Whatever in-person vote there is will be heavily Singh. Look at the Republican presidential primary in Delaware. Trump got 75% among mail-ins and 96% with in-person.

Edit: I did some research and it looks like in-person voting is solely provisional ballots and is barely used, like you said. I still think Singh will win them but I doubt it will be enough to swing the race unless it ends up really close.

They is a fairly substantial backlog of ballots particularly in the larger counties. About 950k ballots reportedly received as of yesterday morning but looks like only about 600k have been counted. Many counties likely have not counted their election day dropoff ballots as well.  Mehta probably has a considerable advantage as it seems like many counties in the north are lagging behind. Ocean County is about 23% of the R primary vote currently, because they're one of the few counties that is nearly complete, and is probably the reason why the race seems close (Ocean County was 12% of the 2018 R senate primary for reference).

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Looks like Tony Gonzales will pull out the win in TX-23. He's down by just 300 votes and all the outstanding precincts are in Bexar County, where he leads 60-40. Great news for the GOP - he could easily be another Mike Garcia (although Gina Ortiz-Jones is a much better candidate than Smith).

Right on cure Bexar hits 100% and Reyes maintains a 130 vote lead. Last three counties with Precincts are El Paso and two tiny rurals. Reyes leads El Paso, each candidate has a rural.

https://home.bexar.org/el45a.html

Bexar has 10/214 voting centers unreported.

And we both can be right. Bexar has not hit 100% reporting, but it has in the borders of TX23.

Problem is NYTimes/Edison"precincts reporting", I'm pretty sure is actually expected vote now rather than actual precincts reporting in some states. Some of their percentage reporting numbers do not make any sense at all, looking at some in the Dem primary runoff. For example they say 58% reporting in Harris County but they've reported from 101/109 vote centers and with an average of 354 votes reported per vote center, extrapolating this result would give about 154k votes which is way off from the extrapolated result of 260k votes from NYTimes/Edison.

There's also the issue to consider that voters can choose to vote at any vote center within the county, therefore making it nearly impossible to exclude the possibility that there are no votes remaining the TX-23 portion of the district, unless NYTimes/Edison has data on every voter who showed up to the polls in Bexar County today, which seems unlikely.

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More evidence towards how obscure the NYTimes precincts reporting number is:

Despite being at "100% reporting" in the TX-23 portion of Bexar County, and having 95% of vote centers reporting, they somehow have TX-20, which is entirely in Bexar County, at 45% reporting.

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Well Bexar is done according to their website and Gonzales is ahead by 3(!) votes.

Looks like recount territory at this point since the amount of outstanding vote is very small. El Paso claims 14/22 precincts reporting in the TX-23 portion of the county. Gonzales clearly leads election day vote 87-75 there.

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Well Bexar is done according to their website and Gonzales is ahead by 3(!) votes.

Looks like recount territory at this point since the amount of outstanding vote is very small. El Paso claims 14/22 precincts reporting in the TX-23 portion of the county. Gonzales clearly leads election day vote 87-75 there.

Further analysis based on precinct data:

Early vote in precincts reporting some election day votes: Reyes 99 Gonzales 95
Early vote in precincts reporting no election day votes: Reyes 63 Gonzales 24

Would expect Reyes might be able to take a lead again based on this information once El Paso releases the rest of their results.

edit: Gonzales ended up increasing his lead by 4 votes from remaining El Paso vote. Probably some provisional ballots/military ballots districtwide to consider as well but I'd assume this would favor Gonzales?

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Random observation I noticed in yesterday's TN Senate GOP primary last night - Sethi overall did better on election day votes than early vote sometimes up to 15% in Nashville and surrounding counties, and about 13% better in Memphis. However, in most of the eastern portion of the state he generally did worse on election day - for example he was winning Washington County on early returns but ended up losing it, slightly behind in Sullivan County on early returns but ended up losing by 5%. There were a few counties where he did better such as Knox and Hamilton which might be explained by his generally stronger performance in urban areas, but this trend wasn't necessarily unique to urban areas - in the central and western portions of the state Sethi still did better on election day votes in more rural counties. Curious to know what could explain this trend - of course there have been detectable trends of early vs election day vote splits but I haven't really observed a this type of geographic divide in behavior of early vs election day vote before.

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Only a couple precincts from Holyoke but Neal is up, looking pretty poor for Morse but it's very early.

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Mermell has taken the lead with the latest update, but still way too close for comfort.

I'd rather Kennedy just stayed in his seat,  this is too stressful :-(

Mermell's lead is buoyed by Brookline where she will definitely do very well and Auchincloss very poorly. However Mermell and Auchincloss will run pretty similarly to each other in Newton, but everything outside of these towns are terrible for Mermell, which make up around 70% of the district.