Iowa Caucus Results Thread (pg 148 - full results)

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Port Charlotte Satellite Caucus First Alignment results

Klobuchar 48
Buttigieg 38
Biden 33
Warren 12
Steyer 2
Sanders 1
Yang 1

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https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1224477506645807105

I mean, this doesn't mean much, but do we think this kind of thing lowers the chance of a Sanders blowout (40%+)?

Sanders is better at satellite caucuses frequented by younger people and worse at satellite caucuses frequented by older people, basically what we've expected anyways. Can't really draw any actual conclusions from the satellite caucus results, even though they're fun to watch.

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https://twitter.com/jeffzeleny/status/1224525985464356864

Grinnell precinct, I believe

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https://twitter.com/SenhorRaposa/status/1224576144307036165

Makes me wonder if Buttigieg is claiming victory off SDEs while Sanders campaign (possibly) is claiming victory off first choice.

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Nevada Democratic Party saying they won't be using the reporting app employed in Iowa.

https://twitter.com/frankthorp/status/1224749061539938314

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https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1224828399115390976?s=20

His analysis is pretty simplistic, only assuming the precincts that have finished reporting are fully representative of the remaining precincts, which may not be the case.

I've done a bit of comparison between the Buttigieg campaign's more complete precinct data (although only showing numbers for Buttigieg) and the AP results, and it turns out that the AP results have a lower first choice % than the Buttigieg results in Polk County, possibly implying the remaining precincts may be slightly more favorable for Buttigieg (although it's still very possible these precincts may be stronger for Sanders as some other candidates may be weaker in general).

I'll try and see what numbers I can find in other large counties, and maybe try and crosscheck the Pete + AP precinct data to get a better idea of what to expect from remaining precincts.

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Have spent a little bit of time parsing together precincts that are recorded in the Buttigieg campaign's precinct data and the AP/NYTimes data, and summing the SDE totals from the Buttigieg data in precincts that are not currently included in the AP/NYTimes data, and then comparing these SDE sums to the estimated SDEs remaining the NYTimes model, to try and determine whether the model is overestimating or underestimating Buttigieg. Important caveat is that while Buttigieg may be doing better/worse than the projections, it may not necessarily imply Sanders is doing better/worse in the opposite direction, as Buttigieg may be doing better or worse in the opposite direction at the expense/benefit of other candidates. Precinct reporting for most counties is still not 100% even when parsing the two data sources, but tends to be 90%+, which is better than what the AP/NYTimes have now.

Polk County: NYTimes projection - 43.37; Buttigieg count - 46.76; 167/177 precincts accounted for
Blackhawk County: NYTimes projection - 16.77; Buttigieg count - 11.51; 51/62 precincts accounted for
Linn County: NYTimes projection - 14.50; Buttigieg count - 12.32; 81/86 precincts accounted for
Scott County: NYtimes projection - 16.12; Buttigieg Count - 15.68; 57/63 precincts accounted for
Dubuque County: NYtimes projection - 8.8; Buttigieg count - 10.4; 33/35 precincts accounted for

Among these counties with the largest amount of vote outstanding, it appears that Buttigieg will do better than the NYTimes currently projects in Polk County, Dubuque County and probably Scott County (would only need one more county level delegate to reach the NYTimes projection). Appears to be doing reasonably worse in Blackhawk than what is expected, but there is still a reasonable amount of precincts unaccounted for, extrapolating the 11.51 would imply about 15.47 SDEs which isn't too far off from the projection. Slightly down in Linn county as is too, but similar extrapolation would imply about 15.4 SDEs there. Overall from these five counties which consist of about 51% of the outstanding SDEs, it would appear Buttigieg is doing slightly better than what the NYTimes seems to be projected, which implies his win probability among SDEs may well be higher than the 74% chance that NYTimes is currently projecting. Still as I've mentioned before, Sanders may still be exceeding what the NYTimes is projecting as well at the expense of other candidates, but it may be hard to overcome the 25 SDE gap based on how it appears Buttigieg may be doing.

I may try and do more counties, but doing it manually gets a little tedious especially considering the large amount of counties in the state.

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Nate Cohn reports that new data will bring us up to 71% and has Buttigieg in a 25 SDE lead.

https://results.thecaucuses.org/

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Possible that Warren wins Jefferson County and we'll have five different candidates winning at least one county. NYTimes currently projects the county to be tied between Sanders and Warren.

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Can't find raw numbers but change in %

Buttigieg: 26.8% -> 26.9%
Sanders: 25.2% -> 25.2%
Warren: 18.4% -> 18.2%
Biden: 15.4% -> 15.6%
Klobuchar: 12.6% -> 12.5%

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Black Hawk County Iowa supervisor, fed up with waiting, posted the full county results on Facebook

1. Sanders 2,149 votes 155 County Delegates
2. Buttigieg 1,578 votes 111 County Delegates.
3. Warren 1,244 votes, 87 County Delegates.
4. Biden 986 votes, 85 County Delegates.
5. Klobuchar 862 votes, 55 County Delegates.
6. Yang 33 Votes, 4 County Delegates
7. Steyer 27 votes, 4 Delegates.

Full SDE count in the county based on these numbers:

Sanders: 31.25
Buttigieg: 22.38
Warren: 17.54
Biden: 17.14
Klobuchar: 11.09
Yang: .81
Steyer: .81

Compared to NYTimes projection:

Sanders: 31.11
Buttigieg: 23.64
Warren: 18.38
Biden: 13.13

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There is obviously something wrong with the results if Deval Patrick randomly jumped up to 22 SDEs after having none

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In some newly reported Polk county precincts, Sanders SDEs were given to Patrick while Warren SDEs were given to Steyer it looks like

statewide SDE lead is probably closer to 22 for Buttigieg

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Hidden in the midst of this data reporting error is that Warren has taken the lead in Johnson County - now all of the top five lead in at least one county.

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https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1225219245610610689

Seems like hot air to me considering the remaining vote appears to be more favorable to Buttigieg

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Most of the recent vote dump seems to be from satellite caucuses

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Precincts Reporting---- (1623/1765 Precincts)---  92.0%

Outstanding "Traditional"--- FINAL Non Sat precincts by largest County:

Polk County: (165/177 Precincts)

Des Moines--- Precinct (66) & (83)--- South... Bernie generally leads in surrounding precincts with Pete 2nd

Des Moines--- Precinct (24)--- NE... Sanders 1st, Pete 2nd

Urbandale--- Precinct (3) ---- Warren/Bernie/Pete all pretty strong in surrounding precincts

West DM--- Precinct (212)--- Strong Bernie Country around here, with both Warren & Pete competitive

Clive--- Precinct (4)--- Strong Pete Country to the West with Warren, Klob, & Warren doing well....

Ankeny--- Precinct (---- Bernie/Pete Country in surrounding precincts

Bondurant--- Precinct (1)---- Likely Pete

Sheldahl- Precinct (1)--- Looks to be Pete/Biden/Klob Country

Polk City--- Precinct (1)--- Looks to be Pete/Biden/Klob Country

Allen--- Precinct (1)--- Looks to be Pete/Biden/Klob sort of area

So I'm missing one because of small NYT Map Size (or possible Polk County has it's own Sat???)

I have no idea of the relative total vote within those precincts, but it looks like Bernie has a decent shot at placing 1st in 6/11 listed, and Pete the others (or even possibly a Warren or Klob grab)....

You're missing Washington-01

Here are the Pete SDE totals in these precincts (along with total SDEs in the county)

Ankeny-08: Pete .84/2.8
Bondurant-01: .84/1.68
Clive-04: .84/2.8
Des Moines-24: .28/1.12
Des Moines-66: 1.12/3.36
Des Moines-83: .56/2.24
Polk City-01: 1.12/3.08
Sheldahl-01: 0/.28
Urbandale-03: .84/2.8
Washington-01: .28/.28
WDM-212: .84/3.08

Don't have Pete data on Allen-01 but it only has .28 SDEs for the precinct

Pete earns 7.56 from this precincts, a bit better than than 7 SDEs currently projected by the NYTimes.

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So looks like after the dump a brief survey of the most populated counties:

169/177 Polk
85/86 Linn
59/63 Scott
55/57 Johnson
60/62 Black Hawk
41/44 Woodbury

There are 47 traditional precincts in 29 counties still out. It appears that they are working all counties simultaneously. Maybe they have brought the county chairs in, along with the paper records? This last dump finished up 21 counties.

I would imagine the intervention of the DNC to resolve this SNAFU with massive level of resources involved, data verification, regular updates to all of the Campaigns, transparency, etc might actually give us a good chance of knowing something close to the final results by early tomorrow AM or Noon at the latest....

So of the counties I listed that is (20) traditional precincts in the (6) largest Counties by pop....

What else is outstanding in traditional county precincts?

Story County--- (2) precincts... Rurals or

Bernie/Warren Country Overall, but....

Pattowamie County--- (2) Precincts....

One is rural small, the other ()

Warren County--- (2) Precincts

DM-86 Bernie/Pete  (?)
Palmyra Twsp--- Pete/Warren (?)

There is (26) of the remaining (47) traditional precincts....

Can't find the number of total SDEs from Story County precincts, but Collins Twp-Collins and Grant Township appear to be the remaining precincts there. Pete has .42 SDEs (15/37 on final alignment) in Collins Twp-Collins and 0 in Grant Township (14/32 on final alignment, might only have one county level delegate?)

Pottawatomie has Hancock and Carter Lake 2 missing, Pete earns .12 and .24 SDEs respectively; with a total of .24 and .84 SDEs to be awarded

In Warren, Pete earns 0 in DM-86, and .23 in Palmyra; each of them have .23 total SDEs

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If only NYT would update their precinct maps on time.

Give them a break. Matching tabular data into GIS is a pain, and I'm speaking from experience.

My apologies to NYT.

OK now I'm wondering what's taking them so long to update. They did so much more quickly the other times. I hope they didn't just go to bed...

Looks like it's updated now.

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New update decrease SDE lead to 3.427, CD1 satellites still outstanding

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Making an attempt to collect data on the CD-01 satellites:

Cedar Rapids Public Library: Sanders 9 Warren 6 Buttigieg 5
Hoover Elementary: Sanders 107
Mayflower Retirement Community Carmen Center: Klobuchar 4 Buttigieg 2 Warren 1 Biden 1
RWDSU Local 110: Sanders 18 Biden 2

Sanders also reportedly received 7 county level delegates at the Kirkwood CC satellite caucus, not sure how that would translate to SDEs though.

4/12 (kinda 5/12) accounted for, will be a matter of how many satellites are like Hoover Elementary

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So basically, this will come down to:

1) How much Sanders wins the final satellite by, and

2) If the remaining in-state precincts go the way we think they will

That right? How likely is a pledged delegate tie, at this point?

Will have to redo my calculations with the new results, but at the 94% update I found that it's extremely probable there is a pledged delegate tie if Sanders wins on SDEs; if Buttigieg leads on SDEs he would be ahead on pledged delegates 14-12 over Sanders.

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So here is where we are with 7 of the 13 caucus sites accounted for:

CD1 Satellite: Cedar Rapids Public Library, Whipple Auditorium: 24
CD1 Satellite: Hoover Elementary School: 121
CD1 Satellite: RWDSU Local 110: 20
CD1 Satellite: UAW Local 838: 20
CD1 Satellite: Mayflower Retirement Community Carmen Center: 72
CD1 Satellite: Kirkwood Community College Recreation Center : at least 61
CD1 Satellite: Drake Library: 98

Might be mid sized
CD1 Satellite: University of Dubuque Blades Chapel; Charles and Romonda Myers Center

Union Halls
CD1 Satellite: UAW Local 893
CD1 Satellite: UAW Local 94

Retirement Homes
CD1 Satellite: Edgewood Convalescent
CD1 Satellite: Faith Luthern Home
CD1 Satellite: The Meth-Wick Community

There were at least 416 caucus attendees, so there need to be 185 more to reach 601 to double the number of delegates.

What's the source on 98 at Drake Library? Co-Chair of the Poweshiek Democratic Party claims 15; massive and crucial difference.

https://www.facebook.com/groups/209580075744899/permalink/2679596665409882/

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So updated counts with better sourced data:

CD1 Satellite: Cedar Rapids Public Library, Whipple Auditorium: 24
CD1 Satellite: Hoover Elementary School: 121
CD1 Satellite: RWDSU Local 110: 20
CD1 Satellite: UAW Local 838: 20
CD1 Satellite: Mayflower Retirement Community Carmen Center: 72
CD1 Satellite: Kirkwood Community College Recreation Center : 77
CD1 Satellite: Drake Library: 15

Likely to be mid sized
CD1 Satellite: University of Dubuque Blades Chapel; Charles and Romonda Myers Center

Union Locals
CD1 Satellite: UAW Local 893
CD1 Satellite: UAW Local 94

Retirement Homes
CD1 Satellite: Edgewood Convalescent
CD1 Satellite: Faith Luthern Home
CD1 Satellite: The Meth-Wick Community

We have sadly dropped down to at least 349 attendees, leaving 252 to make up from the 7 remaining precincts. Definitely an uphill climb, though a picture I saw on twitter did seem to show UAW Local 893 to have quite a few people there.

Who knows, those union halls + higher turnout in the retirement communities (prob benefiting Klobuchar narrowly at the expense of Pete) and the University of Dubuque satellite could push the number over 601.

Is there any university satellite equivalent to compare the Dubuque site to?

It's a small private Presbyterian university, bit different than some of the other universities in terms of it's characteristics.

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Also kind of stumped as to how NYT does not factor in Woodbury County's outstanding traditional precincts into their total SDE votes remaining. Am I missing something? It's only 93% reporting.

It's some sort of graphical error, if you click on one of the candidate buttons under "Where Votes Remain for Each Candidate" you'll see the bubble pop up.