Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[Cinemark]

Is Rasmussen okay?

They've gone from Trump +1 to Trump -10 to Trump +1 in a single week. Thats extreme even for them.

Edit: Their twitter has also become increasingly Trump like in tone.

[Cinemark]

Is Rasmussen okay?

They've gone from Trump +1 to Trump -10 to Trump +1 in a single week.

Go back a few more days and it's even worse: -11 to +1 to -10 to +1 over the last 11 days.  I've been wondering the same thing.  They used to be extremely stable.

You'd think a 1500 LV sample would be more stable.

[Cinemark]

Emerson:

RV:
Approve - 48%(+5)
Dissaprove - 47%(-1)

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/november-national-poll-support-for-impeachment-declines-biden-and-sanders-lead-democratic-primary

Emerson has been one of Trump's best pollsters this years.

I personally think its because they use 65% robo landline polls myself.

Edit: And for the love of all that is holy, stop using Amazon Turk.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/11/15/nyregion/amazon-mechanical-turk.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur&mtrref=t.co&gwh=69D80EA020147C9059B6171DF2C88B3C&gwt=pay&assetType=REGIWALL

[Cinemark]

Also should be noted that the 2018 WI exit polls had Trump at 48/51.

[Cinemark]

Seems like Trump got hit by impeachment but has recovered to his usual -10% range.

Mark my words, i think Trump's approval in the 2020 exit polls will be almost identical to the 2018 exit polls: 45/54

[Cinemark]

Fox News, Dec. 8-11, 1000 RV (prior poll OCt. 27-30)

Approve 45 (+3)
Disapprove 53 (-4)

Impeach and remove Trump?  Yes 50, No 46 (was 49/45)

Biden 48, Trump 41 (was 51/39)
Sanders 49, Trump 43 (49/41)
Bloomberg 45, Trump 40 (no prior)
Warren 46, Trump 45 (46/41)
Buttigieg 43, Trump 42 (41/41)

An interesting question: do you THINK <candidate> can beat Trump in 2020?

Biden: Yes 77, No 17 (was 68/17)
Sanders: 60/31 (54/34)
Warren: 59/34 (57/25)
Bloomberg: 55/33 (no prior)
Buttigieg: 48/42 (30/44)

Just as a reminder, in November 2016 (the last few days before Election Day), Trump's poll average had him at 44%, with Hillary Clinton leading him at 47%.

We all know how that turned out...  

Yeah, Trump got 46% and Hillary got 48%. Pretty close to be honest.

Edit: If your saying national polls are going to underestimate Trump, then I have to disagree with you. The national polls were pretty spot on in 2016, and Trump's approval rating in the 2018 exit polls was 45/54, which is spot on with where the polling aggregates had him and continue to have him.

[Cinemark]

Suffolk continues to be one of Trump 's best pollsters.

On another note, I've noticed its quite common for presidents to get a holiday bump. Happened to Trump last year and multiple times for Obama. I'd wager Trump is in the middle of one now.

[Cinemark]

Trump is at 43-52 in new Qpac poll, his highest rating ever in this poll

Nope. He was at 43-52 in June of 2018.

[Cinemark]

Trump definitely seems to be in the middle of a bump, probably driven by some positive economic news and voters getting weary of impeachment. But, as always, Trump has reverted back to his normal -10% net approval range. Sometimes he goes above -10%, sometimes he goes below -10%, but he always returns to -10%. Even impeachment couldn't break this rule.

[Cinemark]

interesting. looks like these was a significant drop in impeachment support amongst democrats. I guess the shine wore off. could also just be holiday ambivalence.

[Cinemark]

Its gonna be a long 11 months.

[Cinemark]

I really hope that this bump, by Trump standards, is mostly due to the holiday season. In spite of that though, that's a really stupid phenomenon:

There is no evidence to support a "holiday bump" in approval rating. Going by 538, on Dec 16, 2017, Trump actually hit his all time lowest approval rating of 36.4. In 2018, his approval rating was essentially stagnant at ~42.0 from October all the way through January.

Obama routinely got holiday bumps.

[Cinemark]

I really hope that this bump, by Trump standards, is mostly due to the holiday season. In spite of that though, that's a really stupid phenomenon:

There is no evidence to support a "holiday bump" in approval rating. Going by 538, on Dec 16, 2017, Trump actually hit his all time lowest approval rating of 36.4. In 2018, his approval rating was essentially stagnant at ~42.0 from October all the way through January.

That makes me feel even worse...

Also, not to be rude, but your recent posts make me think you should take a break. We're 11 months from the election. Trump will have more bumps and downtrends. If you freak out every month because of polling movement, your gonna have a miserable 2020.

[Cinemark]

So...anyway

I think one of the reasons Trump's numbers have improved so quickly in the 538 aggregate is how in sync all the high quality, heavily weighted polls are and just the sheer volume of how many have been released this last week. Seems like they've all centered around -8% and since they're weighted so heavily, its turned the average into something resembling RCP. You'll notice RCP hasnt seen much movement due to them weighing all polls equally in their average.

[Cinemark]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

I just kind of felt like reaffirming my point that Holiday bumps are a real thing. If Trump is currently in one is a matter of debate, but Obama got one every year between Thanksgiving and New Years.

[Cinemark]

Michigan: Glengariff Group, Jan. 3-7, 600 LV via live phone interviews

Approve 47
Disapprove 49

Strongly approve 29
Strongly disapprove 44

Biden 50, Trump 43
Bloomberg 47, Trump 41
Sanders 49, Trump 45
Buttigieg 45, Trump 43
Warren 46, Trump 44

This is the one that has Peters up only by 4? This poll has Trump as more controversial than unpopular.

Theres always the usual note about Michigan polling. Even Nate Cohn had trouble getting a representative sample.

[Cinemark]

Morning Consult usually has extreme outliers like that.

[Cinemark]

Here's the CNN poll.  Jan. 16-19, 1156 adults including 1051 RV (1-month change)

Adults:

Approve 43 (nc)
Disapprove 53 (nc)

Strongly approve 34
Strongly disapprove 44

Remove Trump?  Yes 51 (+6), No 45 (-2)

RV:

Approve 45
Disapprove 51

Strongly approve 37
Strongly disapprove 45

Remove Trump? Yes 49 (+4), No 47 (-1)

I cant seem to find the separate RV numbers in the CNN poll, what page are they on?

[Cinemark]

Here's the CNN poll.  Jan. 16-19, 1156 adults including 1051 RV (1-month change)

Adults:

Approve 43 (nc)
Disapprove 53 (nc)

Strongly approve 34
Strongly disapprove 44

Remove Trump?  Yes 51 (+6), No 45 (-2)

RV:

Approve 45
Disapprove 51

Strongly approve 37
Strongly disapprove 45

Remove Trump? Yes 49 (+4), No 47 (-1)

I cant seem to find the separate RV numbers in the CNN poll, what page are they on?

You have to pull them out of the crosstabs for each question (the crosstabs are at the end of the release).  That's why I didn't go back to last month's poll to get the changes...more work than I'm in the mood to do.

Found it.

Approve 45(+1)
Disapprove 51(-1)

[Cinemark]

He's not even at 51% on Rasmussen right now.

[Cinemark]

Approval is up a lot right now, especially among registered voters. That poll by ABC/WashPost has him at 47/50.

ABC polls tend to be very jumpy, but since this is their first poll in 3 months, it looks especially drastic.

[Cinemark]

It is absolutely stunning to me that the Ukraine impeachment stuff has had zero effect on his numbers

I'm not sure how many times I have to post this:

Trump is always at or around -10. Sometimes he goes above that, sometimes he goes below that. But his numbers always return to the -10 range.

[Cinemark]

I think the one two punch of ABC and Emerson have really moved the aggregates. But neither Monmouth or Fox showed any movement in Trump's direction so I think we'll revert back to his normal range soon.