WI-Marquette: Trump in the lead

[Cinemark]

Probably an odd sample. Shame we have to wait a month to find out.

[Cinemark]

Looking at the crosstabs, a substantial amount of Democrats stopped supporting impeachment and the potential dem nominee from October to November. Would explain the shift. Definitely seems like an outlier.

[Cinemark]

So Trump is leading by a healthy margin in WI but he is losing GA ?

Are we already in 2028 ?

Virginia is proof states can have very rapid transitions. But I think both states are close and polls a year away aren't all that useful. Hillary was up 15 points in WI in November of 2015 according to Marquette after all. 

[Cinemark]

An important caveat about the Klobuchar and Booker head 2 heads.

While the half-samples were selected randomly, the half with Booker versus Trump has significantly more younger voters than the half with Klobuchar. Sanders also does better in the Booker half-sample, although no other candidates do significantly better in either half-sample.

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2019/11/20/new-marquette-law-school-poll-finds-shifts-in-wisconsin-public-opinion-favorable-to-president-trump-on-impeachment-and-presidential-election-preferences/

[Cinemark]

Here’s a bold prediction: Democrats could absolutely win AZ and GA even if they lose WI. It’s a must-win state only for Republicans.

And people thought the 2016 electoral map was ugly, just wait untill 2020 when we have a blue(red atlas) Georgia enclave sandwiched between a red(blue atlas) North Carolina and Florida.  

[Cinemark]

Impeachment is clearly backfiring

I'd agree with you if democrats didnt just win in Kentucky and Louisiana.

[Cinemark]

Interesting to look at the candidates by favourability in this poll, they even asked about Obama and Romney

Trump 46/50
Biden 39/48
Warren 29/46
Sanders 36/54

Obama 54/41
Romney 28/44

The numbers are worse for Biden than I thought they would be, the numbers are about as bad for Sanders and Warren as expected. Not surprisingly Obama is above water. 

Harry Enten has said this sample is more favourable for Trump than the previous poll but the sample in their October poll was 31R/29D/30I or a R+2 sample, the sample in their current poll is 28R/28D/40I so its 2% less Republican and in all other areas like education, age and income its identical.

I think Enten meant that the democrats in the sample were more favorable to Trump, i.e, that impeachment fell by about ten points amongst democrats even though there are no signs of that nationally(ignoring the Emerson poll).

Still, those favorbility ratings are horrific for everyone. Biden's numbers will probably recover a smidge once he wins the nomination and democrats get behind him. But Sander's numbers are probably worse than Hillary's were, and Warren's will be too once her name I.D is 100%.