If Palin wants it, and she does, who could stop her from the Iowa Caucus in '12?

[Associate Justice PiT]

We'll see what happens in two weeks. I still think Huckabee is going to be in a stronger position. He'll be in the public spotlight for the next couple of years through his new Fox News TV show, he has a large PAC, he has a big evangelical and populist following (which has rapidly become the GOP base). Moreover, I think if the alternative is Palin, even the establishment may decide to back Huckabee (keeping with their pattern of supporting the runner-up from the last cycle, even one they previously hated).

Neat observation....but wasn't Romney the "Runner Up" in this election? Or was it really the Huckster?

     How many runner-ups actually get the nod next time without being put on the ticket the first time? There's McCain, but his nomination in 2008 was far from a fait accompli.

[Associate Justice PiT]

We'll see what happens in two weeks. I still think Huckabee is going to be in a stronger position. He'll be in the public spotlight for the next couple of years through his new Fox News TV show, he has a large PAC, he has a big evangelical and populist following (which has rapidly become the GOP base). Moreover, I think if the alternative is Palin, even the establishment may decide to back Huckabee (keeping with their pattern of supporting the runner-up from the last cycle, even one they previously hated).

Neat observation....but wasn't Romney the "Runner Up" in this election? Or was it really the Huckster?

     How many runner-ups actually get the nod next time without being put on the ticket the first time? There's McCain, but his nomination in 2008 was far from a fait accompli.

Reagan and Dole (Dole's case is complicated, because he was put on the ticket in '76, but didn't get the nomination until 1996, following his being the runner up in '88)......4 of the last 5 GOP nominees (Reagan, GHW Bush, Dole, and McCain) got the GOP nomination after having been the runner up in the previous competitive GOP nomination cycle, regardless of whether they were on the ticket before.  Yeah, it wasn't really a fait accompli in each of those cases that each of those guys would win, but that's a heck of a trend.

     As I recall Rockefeller did not run in 1980 & Quayle did not run in 1996. Fact is, being the runner-up last time probably does not give odds as good as being the running mate/VP does (though it is a definite boon).