Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Associate Justice PiT]

Ugh, what an embarrassing climbdown. It looked like it was finally time to stand up to the West and challenge them but didn't even last a week. It pains me to admit it but the Americans pushed us around on this. Now this is something I need to cope over.

China ready to ‘play a role’ in Ukraine ceasefire

China signalled it was ready to play a role in finding a ceasefire in Ukraine as it “deplored” the outbreak of conflict in its strongest comments yet on the war.

Beijing said it was “extremely concerned about the harm to civilians” in comments that came after a phone call between Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi and his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba.

“Ukraine is willing to strengthen communications with China and looks forward to China playing a role in realising a ceasefire,” the Chinese statement said on Tuesday.

It added that it respected “the territorial integrity of all countries”, without indicating whether Beijing accepted Russia’s claim to the Crimean peninsula or shared its recognition of separatists in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine.

     While I deeply hope China is able to bring peace and end this war, the text that I chose to bold interests me. The choice of words is not unique to China and I have seen others say that, but given that China considers Taiwan to be part of its territory I cannot help but see this as the CCP preparing their talking points for a coming invasion.

[Associate Justice PiT]

While I deeply hope China is able to bring peace and end this war, the text that I chose to bold interests me. The choice of words is not unique to China and I have seen others say that, but given that China considers Taiwan to be part of its territory I cannot help but see this as the CCP preparing their talking points for a coming invasion.

I wouldn't be as pessimistic. The situation of 'two Chinas' is distinctly unique. While China claims Taiwan, strictly speaking constitutionally, Taiwan claims China. If anything Russia's stumbling into Crimea in the first instance and now Ukraine, with the international repercussions will have made PRC rethink whatever long term or short term plans it had for Taiwan.

And as someone has mentioned, with Europe under the guise of the EU beefing up it's defences and adjusting it's diplomacy in response to Russia, it gives the US a greater ability to look towards the Pacific and no doubt may hasten Japan into a degree of militarisation if the post-war and post-cold war order of certain countries remaining neutral (eg Finland) is disrupted.

     That is a good point, given how badly the invasion has gone for Russia. It hadn't occurred to me that China might genuinely be rethinking a belligerent stance since Ukraine didn't just immediately fold like it seemed it might.

[Associate Justice PiT]

United Nations GA resolution condemning Russia has been passed.

Yes: 141
No: 5
Abstentions: 35

No info yet on who the five dipsh**t countries were... probably Russia, Belarus, Syria, ?, ?.

Eritrea and North Korea too.

     Any idea why Eritrea voted against? The other four are obvious, but that one puzzles me.

[Associate Justice PiT]

6 months of fighting might come to an end soon

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1623391695533674496?cxt=HHwWgMDU-auJuYctAAAA

      Supposing they order an evacuation at all and don't maroon their soldiers there. Ukraine has proven very determined to hold Bakhmut, even as it has become apparent that they won't be able to continue holding it.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Seems kind of ridiculous to cite an incomplete figure for Ukrainian military aid. What's the number if we do include those?

[Associate Justice PiT]

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1630629859213934596?s=20

“The Khromove [settlement] is the key for the defense of the city. When it is captured, only one Bakhmut - Kostiantynivka road will remain to supply the city,” the soldier explained. “It is already under the enemy's fire control, and if the enemy captures it, supplies will be impossible.”

     It may not be cut off yet, but it sounds like that fate isn't too far off. They describe trying to buy time for a spring counteroffensive, but realistically how far off is that? I recall reading in here that the ground is very muddy in early spring, so such a move might have to wait until late spring.

[Associate Justice PiT]

Russia-Africa summit.  Who attended and who led the African state delegation.

     Looking at the non-attenders, they are mostly small fries economically other than Kenya. Stunning how many presidents attended the event. And apparently also Yevgeny Prigozhin.

[Associate Justice PiT]

I read this thread, and it sounds like Ukraine is annihilating Russia. Then I look at the territory map here, and it tells a completely different story. Not sure which is more correct, but wish they told the same story.

     Problem is Atlas posters are quite open about their biases and aren't giving a balanced reporting of the situation, which leads to the impression you describe. One would need to read a selection of sources on both sides of the war to come to a realistic understanding of the situation on the ground.

[Associate Justice PiT]

I read this thread, and it sounds like Ukraine is annihilating Russia. Then I look at the territory map here, and it tells a completely different story. Not sure which is more correct, but wish they told the same story.

     Problem is Atlas posters are quite open about their biases and aren't giving a balanced reporting of the situation, which leads to the impression you describe. One would need to read a selection of sources on both sides of the war to come to a realistic understanding of the situation on the ground.

Ukrainian sources can be bias but there is no good Russian source to give a realistic view of the ground especially with Putin cracking down on them in the recent months to not report any setbacks. Also it’s like Pericles said just because Russia launched a disastrous attack on Avdiivka or the Ukrainian counterattack in the south is still ongoing doesn’t mean that the Russian lines are completely collapsing

     There's no good single source anywhere to give a realistic view; the key is that you have to read both and apply discernment. It came as a surprise to a lot of people recently when the New York Times reported that Ukraine had made no net gains since January 1st of this year; it wouldn't have been surprising if people actually read a balanced selection of sources and did not simply believe that the Ukrainian ones were accurately describing the totality of the situation.

[Associate Justice PiT]

https://www.ft.com/content/5e6bcce9-7bda-4b29-b1b7-f7df6e879fd9

"The Russians returning home from self-imposed exile
More than 800,000 people fled Russia after last year’s invasion of Ukraine. Now, some have changed their minds"

     Many may not have a choice to be fair. I was reading an article about Russians trying to enter the United States through Mexico and being refused; most of those ultimately turned around returned to Russia. I could go find it if anyone is interested.

[Associate Justice PiT]

There is a majority in Congress for continued Ukraine aid. It will take a lot of screaming and performative handwringing but it will eventually pass. The only question is when and at what cost.

That's why Republicans know they can demand anything they want in exchange. Democrats care more about Kiev than any American issue.

     It also helps the GOP that American support for further Ukraine funding is cooling. It's not like Democrats can complain about the holdup to the public and expect to find a very receptive audience there. If America falls from grace as a superpower, I expect to see historians draw comparisons between us today and Athens c.400 BC, where changing tides of public opinion led them to abandon previous military commitments and lose key allies.

[Associate Justice PiT]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/12/07/senate-republicans-block-aid-to-ukraine-call-for-more-border-security-measures/71836083007/

"Is Biden's Ukraine aid package in jeopardy? GOP senators vote to block it"

The procedure vote fails 49-51.

Too bad Bernie Madoff has passed away because it should be time to bring him into the Pentagon to figure out more accounting errors to route money to Ukraine.

     Fascinating that Sanders sided with the GOP in a party-line vote. I didn't have that one on my bingo card.

[Associate Justice PiT]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/12/07/senate-republicans-block-aid-to-ukraine-call-for-more-border-security-measures/71836083007/

"Is Biden's Ukraine aid package in jeopardy? GOP senators vote to block it"

The procedure vote fails 49-51.

Too bad Bernie Madoff has passed away because it should be time to bring him into the Pentagon to figure out more accounting errors to route money to Ukraine.

     Fascinating that Sanders sided with the GOP in a party-line vote. I didn't have that one on my bingo card.

He objected to the Israel part of the package.  He wanted to make the aid to Israel contingent on the way Israel conducts the war versus no strings attached.

     I did see his rationale, but he seems like a de facto Dem most of the time. It surprised me to see him go against the unanimous position of Senate Democrats. Interesting that there isn't more anger at him causing this vote to fail, as the comments I have seen have blamed Republicans without mentioning Sanders's decisive vote.

[Associate Justice PiT]

https://www.polsatnews.pl/wiadomosc/2024-02-12/piotr-zgorzelski3-w-gosciu-wydarzen-ogladaj/

"Piotr Zgorzelski warns the mayor of Lviv. "I suggest you drink a glass of water."

Piotr Zgorzelski, deputy speaker of the Sejm (PSL), defends  Polish farmer's actions of dumping Ukraine grain.

He is now also borrowing Russian talking points on Bandera by saying "I suggest the mayor of Lviv, Sadowy, drink a glass of water before he says anything because it often seems that the mayor speaks the Bandera language"

This is in response to the mayor of Lvov saying that Polish farmers that dump Ukraine grain are "pro-Russian provocateurs."

Poland and Ukraine really need to get an understanding.

     Ethnic divisions run deep and bitter in that part of the world; Poland is finding itself torn between a desire to hurt Russia and a desire to hurt Ukraine. Hence the lack of a coherent and focused response to this conflict from the Polish people.

[Associate Justice PiT]

https://www.polsatnews.pl/wiadomosc/2024-02-12/piotr-zgorzelski3-w-gosciu-wydarzen-ogladaj/

"Piotr Zgorzelski warns the mayor of Lviv. "I suggest you drink a glass of water."

Piotr Zgorzelski, deputy speaker of the Sejm (PSL), defends  Polish farmer's actions of dumping Ukraine grain.

He is now also borrowing Russian talking points on Bandera by saying "I suggest the mayor of Lviv, Sadowy, drink a glass of water before he says anything because it often seems that the mayor speaks the Bandera language"

This is in response to the mayor of Lvov saying that Polish farmers that dump Ukraine grain are "pro-Russian provocateurs."

Poland and Ukraine really need to get an understanding.

     Ethnic divisions run deep and bitter in that part of the world; Poland is finding itself torn between a desire to hurt Russia and a desire to hurt Ukraine. Hence the lack of a coherent and focused response to this conflict from the Polish people.

Poland would love to see Ukraine win. But it also doesn't want to sacrifice itself for Ukraine.
This generates internal tension, tension Poland has a hard time resolving.

     Part of the challenge resolving it is that the common folk are far less committed to political projects in general than the leadership. The government doesn't want farmers to be sabotaging their alliances, but they also have a hard time stopping them from doing so.

[Associate Justice PiT]

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-calls-putin-crazy-sob-during-san-francisco-fundraiser-2024-02-22/

"Biden calls Putin a 'crazy SOB' during San Francisco fundraiser"

This does not sound like a smart think to say because at some point in the future if Biden is re-elected, there will have to be Biden-Putin talks to end the war.

     I doubt this would hurt that much given Putin already didn't trust America or the West for other reasons. If anything, this comment would be relatively easy to brush off as one of those things you say on the campaign trail.

[Associate Justice PiT]

Dear people that claim to be pro-peace (like Orban), does this sound like someone ready to negotiate?

"Asked about peace talks with Ukraine, Putin indicated he won't discuss surrendering territory annexed from Ukraine and appeared confident Russia’s army could advance further. “Holding negotiations now only because they are running out of ammunition is absurd for us.”"

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1767883770709876792?s=20

I think Russia's negotiation position today is similar to the USA's position toward the end of 1863 vis-a-vis CSA with the adjustment that CSA is still able to get a lot of external military and economic aid.  Namely a CSA offensive to regain round is very likely and in a long attritional war the USA will win but with significant cost.  So can there be a compromise deal where the USA limits its gains to remove the need for attritional losses it will have to incur in a long bloody victory?  Likewise, can CSA give up some of its maximalist positions at the beginning of the conflict to avoid an increasingly likely attritional defeat?

     It's ultimately the same challenge that has existed from the start; Russia and Ukraine have very different ideas of what an acceptable outcome for the war looks like. Negotiations are possible in principle, but fruitless in practice unless someone walks their stance back (or is otherwise willing to give considerable concessions). I suspect that Russia is making noise about pushing far beyond the territory they have already staked a claim to as a means of intimidating Ukraine into making concessions, because it's obvious that Ukraine won't walk back unless they are faced with a catastrophic alternative. Putin's remarks are a dominance play, because being seen as wanting negotiations smacks of weakness.