MO-PPP: Huckabee and Romney ahead against Obama (user search)
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  MO-PPP: Huckabee and Romney ahead against Obama (search mode)
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Author Topic: MO-PPP: Huckabee and Romney ahead against Obama  (Read 3592 times)
Associate Justice PiT
PiT (The Physicist)
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« on: March 09, 2011, 05:34:32 PM »

     I think this is the first time we've seen Huckabee really outclassing Romney in a general election matchup anywhere. Combined with Romney's lackluster primary polling recently, is it possible that he's collapsing? It seems rather absurd for a major change to happen at this early juncture, but the pattern is quite bizarre.
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Associate Justice PiT
PiT (The Physicist)
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Posts: 31,271
United States


« Reply #1 on: March 09, 2011, 08:54:25 PM »

     I think this is the first time we've seen Huckabee really outclassing Romney in a general election matchup anywhere.

What are you talking about?  Just look here:

link

and here:

link

There have been plenty of general election polls (both national and statewide) in which Huckabee has done at least a point or two (and sometimes more) better than Romney.  Heck, look at Tennessee, Texas, and West Virginia, where Huck is doing at least 5 points better than Romney, just like here.


     I haven't really paid much mind to nationwide polls, for what it's worth.

     Also, the statewide polls more or less support what I said. There are six states that have had polls come out this year before this showing Huckabee doing more than 1-2% better against Obama: California, Iowa, North Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, & West Virginia. North Carolina's the only one where this has made an actual difference, & the state had another poll this year where they were within 1% of each other.

     Anyway, my comment was also in reaction to the recent primary polls out of Wisconsin & Maine, showing Romney polling a very poor fourth place. I don't see how he could get the nomination if he's polling fourth in a state where he beat McCain by 31%, though granted caucus polling tends to be rather crummy.
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Associate Justice PiT
PiT (The Physicist)
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« Reply #2 on: May 14, 2011, 03:46:16 PM »

Still, the point that this sample is too R stands.

     Not really, or at least not definitely so. If the President is unpopular, some people who actually voted for him will say they voted for his opponent. Likewise, if the President is popular, people will claim they voted for him when they didn't.
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Associate Justice PiT
PiT (The Physicist)
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,271
United States


« Reply #3 on: May 15, 2011, 03:56:52 AM »

Still, the point that this sample is too R stands.

     Not really, or at least not definitely so. If the President is unpopular, some people who actually voted for him will say they voted for his opponent. Likewise, if the President is popular, people will claim they voted for him when they didn't.

It's an anonymous poll.

     So? People don't like stating that they voted for someone that is unpopular, whether or not they know whomever is hearing the statement. PPP does robo-calls, though, so the effect probably isn't as strong as it would be if they did live calls.
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