Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[Double Carpet]

Does anyone have any TV links that don't require subscription etc?

Thanks!

[Double Carpet]

Mike many thanks, that's great.

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https://g1.globo.com/politica/eleicoes/2022/apuracao/presidente.ghtml

[Double Carpet]

In India, which is also electronic voting/counting, first seat call in 2019 IIRC was about 7 mins after counting started.

[Double Carpet]

455/472K reporting, Lula 51% Bolsonaro 37%

[Double Carpet]

Why did the polls close so early?

5pm Brasilia (3pm Acre) seems quite early - eg France (cities), Spain, Sweden are 8pm

[Double Carpet]

Hope and reality are often opposites in election results.

[Double Carpet]

So in Rd 2 we would expect Tebet to back Bolsonaro and Gomes to back Lula?

Maybe it will all come down to the fake priest.

[Double Carpet]

A couple of questions:

How do the overseas results so far compare to 2018?

Given that the voting & counting is all electronic, what would explain why some areas take longer to declare than others, as more votes counted shouldn't equate to taking longer to count?

Presumably it's just a matter of running the same procedure everywhere, are the votes counted at polling stations?

Thanks

[Double Carpet]

This story about the police in the Nordests seems to be snowballing. Could lead to the polling stations being closed later so that people can actually vote. And if extending opening times to let voters in the North East  goes in tandem with a narrow Lula victory, well then you can imagine how that will go down with Bolsonaro supporters...

Well a conspiracy theorist might say that the police were acting on orders from Bolsonaro or his supporters...

[Double Carpet]

A couple of questions:

How do the overseas results so far compare to 2018?

Given that the voting & counting is all electronic, what would explain why some areas take longer to declare than others, as more votes counted shouldn't equate to taking longer to count?

Presumably it's just a matter of running the same procedure everywhere, are the votes counted at polling stations?

Thanks

The overseas results are not so representative for Brazil. It is a continental country and the internal politics have a great weight.

Some areas in Brazil are more developed than others. Computational processing power and network capacity are factors that make data travel faster. The pro-Lula vote coincides with many poorer areas that have this lower technological efficiency and therefore take longer to reach the central.
There is another reason, which is the queues, which are more common on the outskirts of large centers which, in some cases, can also coincide with the pro-Lula vote.
I also have a hypothesis that poor people vote later because they work more on election day, especially informal workers, while the middle class likes to vote in the morning and go out to lunch afterwards. As votes are sent in a linear way, this can make a difference. But this is my hypothesis and I would also need to see the scope of this phenomenon.

Thanks for this - it would be interesting to know how the overseas results compare with 2018, even if they are a tiny fraction of the overall vote.

I certainly get that some polling stations might stay open later due to queues, but wouldn't have thought that IT variations would make that much difference? But might be wrong.

[Double Carpet]

Are there likely to be exit polls or is it just the long count?

No exit polls afaik.

[Double Carpet]

Lula: 43,617,271 (50.13%)
Bolsonaro: 43,388,178 (49.87%)
73.45% REPORTING

How likely is it Lula wins?

Well Bolsonaro is 25-1 on Betfair.