The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[Rowan]

The new map starts today. I'm not going to differentiate between whether he is at 51% or 65% approval. Green is if he is over 50% approval, and red is if he is under 50% approval. It might take me a bit to go back and find the last legitimate polls for each state, so bear with me(if you want to help to, that would be great).

[Rowan]

Okay guys, how's this? I tried to go back and find the polls. I am almost 100% sure there was a Georgia poll somewhere but I must have missed it going back, so if someone could bring it up that would be great. Also, if you know any of the other states that I have as gray on this map, that would be great as well. Also, if you feel like I have made any mistakes on the states please let me know. I want this as accurate as possible.

[Rowan]

Obama is at 60% in only one state(MD), so it is dark green. He is at 60% disapproval in some states, so they are dark red.

[Rowan]

How do I do that?

[Rowan]

I can't get Maine and Nebraska to not show up. The rest are all good though.

[Rowan]

Gracias, .

What did you do to the code to get it like that?

[Rowan]

Kentucky(PPP)

Approve 35%
Disapprove 59%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_KY_1223.pdf

No change to the map, essentially the same as the SUSA poll.

[Rowan]

Does anyone want me to start making a map?

A few rules I would follow:

1. All polls must be approval, not favorability

2. No Excellent/Good/Fair/Poor polls

3. No internal polls

In theory, you should not mix adult, RV and LV voters polls but I know that it's impossible due to the weak number of polls. 

I would definitely agree, but like you said, there simply aren't enough polls to do this.

[Rowan]

If both LV's and RV's are over 50%(or under 50%), the map doesn't make a difference anyway. If there is a discrepancy(one over 50%, one under 50%), I would probably just take the average of the two.

[Rowan]

Is there any chance the shading could be made more dramatic-- especially since there are only 2 or 3 shades max? It's hard to see the difference currently.

I was thinking about that. Maybe something like a different shade for 55% or 60%?

[Rowan]

This thread has turned into a giant clusterfock.

[Rowan]

How is this guys?

30-39%- Dark Dark Red
40-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% but Approval is higher than Disapproval- Pink
50-54%- Light Green
55-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

Let me know if you guys have any suggestions.

[Rowan]

Ok, fixed the NY one(I had the right poll numbers, just put 7 in the wrong part of the code). I don't see why the Nevada has to change, it's in the 45-49% range so it's red.

Also, I have implemented a 6 month expiration date on polls. As a poll from June or July is not very indicative of where he is at this moment.

[Rowan]

If I start doing averages, then Arizona goes to dark red as Rasmussen had a 40/60 poll of him there. I'd rather just stick with the latest poll, mainly because it's easier that way.

[Rowan]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

His maps are not fundamentally different to Rowan's.

I just like the Yellow-Green distinction better but prefer Rowan's numbering for the dates of the polls instead of the letters.

Let them create their own maps and everybody is happy.

I think they mean that he mixes favorability polls, excellent/good/fair/poor, and has used internal polls(Indiana is one IIRC).

[Rowan]

Nebraska(Rasmussen)

Approve 38%
Disapprove 61%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2012/nebraska/toplines/toplines_2012_nebraska_senate_election_december_28_2009

We finally get a Nebraska poll and it's no surprise.

[Rowan]

Nebraska(Rasmussen)

Approve 38%
Disapprove 61%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2012/nebraska/toplines/toplines_2012_nebraska_senate_election_december_28_2009

We finally get a Nebraska poll and it's no surprise.

Maryland that bad too?

Huh? Maryland is dark green.

[Rowan]

A 38/61 Approval rating is actually good for Obama in Nebraska at this point.

How so? He won 42% there in 2008.

[Rowan]

A 38/61 Approval rating is actually good for Obama in Nebraska at this point.

How so? He won 42% there in 2008.

He won by 53% nationwide. This means that Nebraska is R+11. Nebraska is only R+8(in theory) according to this approval rating because Obama is getting 46% nationwide currently according to Rassmussen.

Point is Obama still has a good chance of winning that Nebraska CD in 2012.

Good point. But sometimes Rasmussen's approvals are just a little out there, for example his 45% in South Carolina when he was 47% nationally.

[Rowan]

New Hampshire(ARG)

Approve 39%
Disapprove 47%

http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/nhp04.html

[Rowan]

Are we preferring likely voters over the total sample? Total sample was approve 40, disapprove 44, likely voters was 39-47. It's hard to tell how meaningful 'likely voters' is 10 months out, IMO.

It's registered voters. The total sample was 600 adults, broken down to 566 registered voters.

[Rowan]

ARG = joke. Everyone seems to have forgot their wretched track record.

Actually they weren't that bad in 2008. Better than the RAS even:

[Rowan]

Updated with Massachusetts.

[Rowan]

Connecticut gets a little lighter.

[Rowan]

AR(Rasmussen)

Approve 38%
Disapprove 61%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/arkansas/toplines/toplines_2010_arkansas_senate_race_january_5_2010

No change to the color, just the date.