Virginia 2009 Megathread

[Rowan]

Let's go Terry, you can do it!

[Rowan]

Come on Terry, spend those millions, you know you want to. Heck, even get Hillary to come stump for you! You can do it!

[Rowan]

Hopefully Deeds and Moran split the Anti-McAuliffe vote, and Terry wins with 35%.

[Rowan]

Does Virginia have open or closed primaries?

[Rowan]

http://notlarrysabato.typepad.com/doh/2009/04/virginia-republicans-are-for-lesbian-lovers.html

Looks like someone forgot which account he was logged into.

[Rowan]

McDonnell 45%
Deeds 30%

McDonnell 44%
Moran 34%

McDonnell 45%
McAuliffe 33%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2009/virginia/election_2009_virginia_governor_election

[Rowan]

Disgusting.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mKdyEPGiM7o&feature=player_embedded

[Rowan]

Just Terry being Terry.

[Rowan]

In the primary debate, all three Democratic candidates said they opposed the state's gay marriageban, and Moran even said he would fight to repeal it.

I mean, I'm sure NoVA won't care, but I wonder how well that'll play in the rest of Virginia...

And, Moran is really the only one who cares about the environment. u go moran

Fixed it for ya.

And I don't think it will make a difference really.

[Rowan]

Beautiful.

[Rowan]

The polls have McDonnell getting at least 21% of the black vote against each of the candidates. Needless to say, that's not going to happen. But it brings up an interesting point, why do blacks poll for Republicans but don't end up voting for them?

[Rowan]

The polls have McDonnell getting at least 21% of the black vote against each of the candidates. Needless to say, that's not going to happen. But it brings up an interesting point, why do blacks poll for Republicans but don't end up voting for them?

subsample MoE

It's 17% of the sample. It's not that small.

[Rowan]

The polls have McDonnell getting at least 21% of the black vote against each of the candidates. Needless to say, that's not going to happen. But it brings up an interesting point, why do blacks poll for Republicans but don't end up voting for them?

subsample MoE

It's 17% of the sample. It's not that small.

Yes, but the MoE is still quite large. 17% of 1,396 is only 237. The MoE on a sample size of 237 is 6.5%. And MoEs are just an estimate for medium-ish sample sizes. At small sample sizes (smaller than ~400), MoEs really should grow faster than the standard calculation, which is 100/sqrt[sample size].

I just used a MOE calculator that is on ARG's website. Approximately 736,907 blacks voted in Virginia in 2008. A sample of 237 of them would give a MOE of 6.36%.

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/moe.html

[Rowan]

PPP:

I know SurveyUSA's Virginia Democratic primary poll this week caused a stir, and we happened to be on schedule to poll it this weekend anyway. We'll have that Tuesday.

The thing that surprised me most in the SUSA numbers was only 18% of the electorate being undecided. We've already started our poll and continue to find it more around 40%.

It's possible the difference could be explained by Survey USA using a tighter likely voter screen than us. I'm not sure there's really a 'right' or 'wrong' at this point.

We do join them in seeing movement toward Terry McAuliffe so far although I don't know if we're seeing quite the magnitude of that they did.

We'll poll the primary two more times- the week before Memorial Day and the weekend before the election. And by popular demand we'll also poll the Democratic candidates against Bob McDonnell probably two weekends before the election so that if there are any clear general election viability disparities that information will be out there.

[Rowan]

PPP

McAuliffe 30%
Moran 20%
Deeds 14%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_VA_505.pdf

[Rowan]

Well, time to line up behind Terry.

Over my dead body.

PUMA!!!!

[Rowan]

Moran's poll, by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, shows McAuliffe with 31 percent; Moran, 29 percent; and Deeds, 18 percent. The survey was conducted from April 30 to May 3. Based on interviews with 606 likely Democratic primary voters, it has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

http://www.timesdispatch.com/rtd/news/state_regional/state_regional_govtpolitics/article/GUBS06_20090505-222609/265968/

[Rowan]

Moran really needs to pull this out.  McAullife will lose this race.  By the way, when is the actual primary?

June 9.

[Rowan]

SUSA Virginia Governor

Dem Primary
McAuliffe 37%
Deeds 26%
Moran 22%

General Election Matchups
McDonnell 46%
McAuliffe 40%

McDonnell 46%
Deeds 40%

McDonnell 47%
Moran 37%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=51ed4b5b-05e4-4828-a866-eee035fb91dd

[Rowan]

Low enough turnout and Creigh might have an outside chance of winning this thing.

PPP says pretty much that:

A pretty clear divide is emerging. Among the frequent primary voters Terry McAuliffe, Brian Moran, and Creigh Deeds are basically in a three way statistical tie based on the interviews conducted so far. But among the more casual primary voters who did not find Webb-Miller compelling enough to head to the polls but who are intending to come out this time McAuliffe has a substantial lead.

[Rowan]

R2K/KOS VA-GOV

Dem Primary
McAuliffe 36%
Moran 22%
Deeds 13%

General Election Matchups
McDonnell 44%
McAuliffe 34%

McDonnell 42%
Moran 35%

McDonnell 45%
Deeds 32%

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2009/5/21/13304/2537

[Rowan]

I'd argue that a higher turnout favors Deeds because more Independents and Republicans will have voted.

[Rowan]

I'd argue that a higher turnout favors Deeds because more Independents and Republicans will have voted.

Something tells me Democratic turnout matters more...

Well obviously. But the more Independents show up the better it is for Deeds.

[Rowan]

I'd argue that a higher turnout favors Deeds because more Independents and Republicans will have voted.

Something tells me Democratic turnout matters more...

Well obviously. But the more Independents show up the better it is for Deeds.

No, not really. The scant polling we have suggests Moran does best with Independents. (These may be liberal Independents; they probably are, since they're voting in the Democratic primary.) Deeds is not the sort of candidate with a lot of Independent appeal for a primary. His appeal is to old-time Democrats.

Independents will not be more than, say, 15% of the electorate, anyway, and Republicans less than 5%.

SUSA had Republicans as 12% of their sample. And I stand corrected on Independents, PPP has McAuliffe and Deeds tied with the lead among Indies, and SUSA has McAuliffe leading by 4 over Deeds. Moran is in last place in all categories.

[Rowan]

I'd still bet that Moran comes in second.

My prediction:

Deeds: 37%
McAuliffe: 34%
Moran: 29%

It's good to be optimistic, but do you really think he has a shot?