AZ (Data Orbital): Biden +5

[Ljube]

Refused 4?

I remember my post four years ago about those who refused.

Refused=Shy Trump

[Ljube]

Pre-rounding changes:

October 16-18
550 likely voters
MoE: 4.18%
Changes with October 3-5

Biden 47% (-1)
Trump 42% (-1)
Refused 4% (+2)
Jorgensen 3% (n/c)
Other 1% (not previously included)
Undecided 2% (-1)

Interesting that it's "Refused" that went up. It's possible that there are a lot of people who will tell you who they *plan* to vote for but may not be willing you to tell you who they *actually voted* for, which may explain the rise in undecideds in some polls recently: Some people who have already voted early (in person or by mail) are now unwilling to respond to polls.

Because they voted for Trump.

[Ljube]

Based on state fundamentals and not taking polls into consideration too much, I think that this is the most likely outcome.

Too early to consider polls. I will take the polls into consideration during the next week.

[Ljube]

Based on state fundamentals and not taking polls into consideration too much, I think that this is the most likely outcome.

Too early to consider polls. I will take the polls into consideration during the next week.

Why is Nevada Republican based on fundamentals? If anything's given Republicans hope there (although I think it's safe D anyway), it's the polls.

Nevada was hit hard by coronavirus restrictions.
It will swing toward Trump.

[Ljube]

Guys, this is how I see the race based on state fundamentals. I may be wrong, of course, it's too early for a real projection.