Why do people think Michigan is a tossup but Wisconsin leans D? No way MI flips before WI! (Especially considering Flint)
Flint helps Trump. He is an outsider.
Higher African American turnout in Michigan due to a white Republican governor poisoning their families is not going to help Trump.
If Flint's problems continue to be painted as a Republican governance problem (I'm sure Hillary will also continue to work this angle), it will hurt his prospects in that state.
Virginia, there is no way you can connect Trump with a Republican governor or Republican governance. As I said, he is an outsider.
Clinton, on the other hand, is a Washington insider and part of the Establishment.