Pennsylvania Statewide Election Discussion - 11/2

[Mexican Wolf]

I was Voter 110 at my precinct earlier this morning. Mostly voted for Dems except for the write-in township offices where I just wrote in people I know.

[Mexican Wolf]

I was Voter 110 at my precinct earlier this morning. Mostly voted for Dems except for the write-in township offices where I just wrote in people I know.

Is that considered good turnout for your precinct?

For an off-year, non-midterm election, I'd say it's around average. IIRC, I think there's usually around 400-500 votes cast in my precinct on off-years like this. Btw, my precinct usually goes around 60% R to 40% D, give or take a few points, in elections.

[Mexican Wolf]

Didnt see a countywide race thread but Ds held all Chesco row offices albeit by lackluster margins, maintaining their gains from 2017 and 2019.

I still find it so fascinating that this year is now only the third time in county history that the Chester County Dems swept the row offices on the ballot.

Since the Ds won all the row offices again as well as the countywide vote in all the court elections, I think Chester County will remain a blue county for at least the next several voting cycles. The D margins probably won't be as lopsided as they were during the Trump years, though.

[Mexican Wolf]

Brobson's lead over McLaughlin has shrunken to 34,815 votes (1.26% margin). There are still some mail-ins and provisionals left to count, but definitely not enough for McLaughlin to make up the deficit. Pain.

Dumas's lead over Crompton has grown to 12K, so it's safe to say that she has secured a win.

McLaughlin won Erie county county by 14 points while Timika lost it by 9... that's kinda interesting. Is Sullivan from that area?

Also, McLaughlin getting 62.5% of the vote in Allegheny county is quite impressive. It looks like Democrats clearing 60% there is the new normal, thanks to the realignment.

At least according to the Northeast Times, Sullivan was born in Juniata and lives in Paoli now.

I was also surprised how strongly McLaughlin won Erie County, especially since she's still trailing narrowly in Dauphin and Bucks. I know state supreme court races don't always match up with other statewide partisan results, but I still wouldn't have guessed she would carry Erie in a landslide before those two.

[Mexican Wolf]

Here are the shifts currently from the last SC race in 2017 to now. Really jarring shifts that would make you think McLaughlin won this race, since Woodruff lost by 4.5%.

I'd have to take a closer look, but given these crazy swings here, the rurals must've gotten even more red though than last time to counter act this (plus low turnout in Philly again did not help), and the minor ~1.5% swing in Allegheny didn't help either, since that's the biggest turnout county.

Erie
2017: Mundy (R) +9.5
2021: McLaughlin (D) +14.5

Allegheny
2017: Woodruff (D) +26.4
2021: McLaughlin (D) +25

Centre
2017: Woodruff (D) +1.3
2021: McLaughlin (D) +3.2

Luzerne
2017: Mundy (R) +22.7
2021: Brobson (R) +13.2

Lackawanna
2017: Mundy (R) +3.8
2021: McLaughlin (D) +18.6

Lancaster
2017: Mundy (R) +30.5
2021: Brobson (R) +24

Dauphin
2017: Mundy (R) +19
2021: Brobson (R) +3.5

Monroe
2017: Mundy (R) +10.3
2021: McLaughlin (D) +3.2

Northampton
2017: Mundy (R) +3.2
2021: McLaughlin (D) +2.3

Lehigh
2017: Mundy (R) +2.8
2021: McLaughlin (D) +2.2

Berks
2017: Mundy (R) +21.5
2021: Brobson (R) +14.7

Bucks
2017: Mundy (R) +1.9
2021: Brobson (R) +2.2

Montgomery
2017: Woodruff (D) +14.3
2021: McLaughlin (D) +20.4

Chester
2017: Woodruff (D) +0.9
2021: McLaughlin (D) +6.7

Delaware
2017: Woodruff (D) +0.9
2021: McLaughlin (D) +10.2

Philadelphia
2017: Woodruff (D) +60.8
2021: McLaughlin (D) +65.1

 That Luzerne County flip is brutal. Does Brobson live there?

As far as I know, Brobson is from Lycoming County and currently lives in Dauphin.