New Hampshire Primary (January 23) Megathread

[NOVA Green]

ddhq has it now at 55-44 Trump with 57k PUB votes counted (Ahead of NYT numbers).

[NOVA Green]

Let's see what we get from Nashua here in a little bit...

Manchester is roughly currently tracking state averages with est 49% in.

[NOVA Green]

DDNN PROJECTION: TRUMP & BIDEN WIN NH PRIMARY

DDHQ also checks the Trump box.

[NOVA Green]

nyt just called it for Haley.

[NOVA Green]

DDHQ is still way ahead of the Times...

Now 55-44 Trump with 64.1k.

Seen various townships flip get colored live on NYT right after scanning DDHQ.

Still think Haley might do well in "The Kasich Belt" of Western NH near the VT border...

[NOVA Green]

First votes just came in from Nashua...

DDHQ is showing it yellow.

[NOVA Green]

First votes just came in from Nashua...

DDHQ is showing it yellow.

53-47 Haley 1.6k total (No idea which wards)

[NOVA Green]

Nashua now virtually tied with 3,5k tv in PUB PRIM.

[NOVA Green]

Trump just narrowly took lead in Nashua...

5.9k TV PUB PRIM (50.3% Trump).

[NOVA Green]

HALEY TAKES HANOVER WITH 86%

BOOOOMMMMMM

LOLZ...

[NOVA Green]

Largest Cities in NH:

Manchester (59-40 Trump) 12.0k PUB ballots counted (DDHQ)  est. 62% reporting
Manchester (57-42 Trump) 11.6k PUB ballots counted (NYT)     est 69% of vote in

Nashua (52-47 Trump)  13.6k PUB ballots counted (DDHQ)   est. 83% reporting
Nashua (53-46 Trump)  11.0k PUB ballots counted (NYT)      est 80% of vote in

Concord (52-46 Haley)   7.8k PUB ballots counted (DDHQ)  est 96% reporting
Concord (52-45 Haley)   7.9k PUB ballots counted (NYT)     est >95% in

Dover    (55-45 Haley)   4.4k PUB ballots counted (DDHQ)   est 82% reporting
Dover    (54-46 Haley)   3.1k PUB ballots counted (NYT)      est 60% of vote in

Rochester (63-37 Trump)  5.5k PUB ballots counted (DDHQ)   est 91% reporting
Rochester (64-36 Trump)  5.2k PUB ballots counted (NYT)      est 85% of vote in

[NOVA Green]

Why would Haley drop out? It's not like she has much of a political future anyway. Doesn't seem like a bad idea to stick around as the Trump alternative and get 20-30% of the votes.

She only did as well in NH because Independents and Democrats were allowed to vote in the Republican primary

REG DEMs can't vote in NH PUB PRIM...

[NOVA Green]

Well, there was no real surprise, but at least it was a little more interesting to watch than the Iowa caucus.

In Iowa rural conservative areas counted first, while in NH urban liberal areas counted first.

That, plus the overconfident Exit Poll for Haley made it for a brief moment look competitive.

For some reason I'm having a bit of a brain block at the concept of "Urban Liberal Areas" within the context of NH...

[NOVA Green]

NYT:
Trump 53.2% — 72,840
Haley 45.7% — 62,541

CNN:
Trump 54.6% — 73,652
Haley 43.7% — 58,860

Where are the extra 4k Haley votes coming from in NYT?

Slightly different counts, but mostly Hanover (college town).

Even then the projected NYT result is the same as CNN's current count.

DDHQ has it at:

Trump 54,9% — 97,585
Haley  44,1% — 78,386

PUB TV= 177.7k

[NOVA Green]

A lot of vote is still not reported yet from the Taxachusetts refugee suburbs like Salem, Pelham, Hudson, Windham, Derry and Londonderry. This will be a lot of votes, and I expect Trump to still be pretty strong in at least the ones that directly border MA. Londonderry might be better for Haley.

We call it "Free Derry" in my humble history lessons...

[NOVA Green]

3. Londonderry. A mix of Salem and Bedford in terms of income and Trumpiness.

4. Derry. A more working class town in the middle of this suburban region. Also has some wealthier corners. Should be a Trump win, but how much?

New Hampshire: a town that plays the moderate hero so much that there’s both a Derry and a Londonderry.

Derry: (65-35 Trump) 4.5k Trump- 2.4k Haley (DDHQ 91% est reporting).
Derry: (62-31-7 Biden-Phillips- Williamson) 1.7k TV (DDHQ est 78% est reporting).



Londonderry results not in yet...

[NOVA Green]

Looks like there will be around 320,000 votes cast in total in the GOP primary, up from 286,000 in 2016 which was the previous record. I think if turnout had been more like 2016, Trump would have done better, a 2016 level GOP turnout probably gives him a 15 - 16% margin instead of 11%. 

Was not there a poster on this very thread way back today before any votes had been counted who claimed that record PUB turnout would benefit Haley and even had some sort of weird little non-embed chart thingie where supposedly NH PUB PRIM TV's would start hitting critical mass at about 275k PUB PRIM votes and by the time you hit 300K PUB votes would basically become a total Haley upset?

Hell, wish Trump had lost NH Tonight for the sake of American Democracy, while also understanding how PUB War Hawks and Neo-Libs doing dicey deals with China shortly after T-Square.