Iowa GOP Caucus (January 15) Megathread - Predictions, Turnout, Results, Etc.

[NOVA Green]

CNN has DeSantis in the lead in Sioux County in the northwest.

Didn't see that CNN one... if so could indicate Trump underperforming a bit in the NW IA "Bible Belt".

[NOVA Green]

In the official count so far, Haley is in 2nd, but in the caucus sites CNN is featuring, DeSantis is 2nd. Could easily end either way.

There are a *lot* of rural counties with no votes reported yet, and I would assume DeSantis will do better than Haley in those. The question is by how much, and can it offset her doing better in places like Des Moines and its suburbs.

Should be noted that Trump's % numbers could drop a bit more in Polk and Linn counties.

[NOVA Green]

Trump down to 44% in Polk County could indicate something, depending upon which precincts have reported...

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1747078440010809647

Yeah that makes sense

Yeah Haley trying to do a bit of a "Rubio" here... still nothing out of Dallas County, which one might expect she could nab a decent bag of votes.

[NOVA Green]

The thing though, the metros don’t have enough people to really dent Trump’s North Korea margins in the rurals. Polk+Linn+Scott+Johnson are only like 1/3 of the population.

However the cities are where the snow plows are working on the main drags.

If IA overall TO ends up at only something like 100-120k?

Desantis supposedly had a whole "99 County" org thing to deliver voters to polls.

Haley appears to do well mainly in the cities..

Trump???

[NOVA Green]

Haley took the lead, barely, in Polk County.

Insert Ron Paul Nuclear Elmo style memes somebody!

How much lower can Trump go in Polk County. :;

[NOVA Green]

Sioux County IA now at 52-40 (Trump-Desantis) with an estimated 9% in and 2.4k remaining TV.

[NOVA Green]

Wow!!!

These must be Absantee ballots!!!!

It's all rigged!!!

Just kidding but yeah pretty big dump there and got to have a cig before parsing....

[NOVA Green]

Trump down to 41% in Polk with the latest dump...

[NOVA Green]

Dallas County (Upper income educated 'burb of Des Moines) is not really looking like is going the way Haley would like.

Per NYT--- 

Trump=   42%
DeSantis- 26%
Haley-      24%

(24% in and est 3.8k remaining).

Looks like Haley and DeSantis are cannibilizing chunks of the '16 PUB caucus voters...

[NOVA Green]

Trump's numbers in Woodbury County really stand out compared to relatively populated counties in IA.

Is there something about Sioux City which makes this county such a Trump stronghold?

I get it that 18% of the workforce is in the MFG sector but what's up there?

Sure there's a large Tyson's Food plant but???

Maybe it's just a small rural precinct way outside of town?

Trump- 68%
Desantis- 14%
Haley- 5%

(57) TV with an est. ~3k to go per NYT.

[NOVA Green]

Haley now ahead in Polk while Trump also clears 53%.

Should be noted per NYT only 602 PUB votes counted in Polk.

[NOVA Green]

Trump's numbers in Woodbury County really stand out compared to relatively populated counties in IA.

Is there something about Sioux City which makes this county such a Trump stronghold?

I get it that 18% of the workforce is in the MFG sector but what's up there?

Sure there's a large Tyson's Food plant but???

Maybe it's just a small rural precinct way outside of town?

Trump- 68%
Desantis- 14%
Haley- 5%

(57) TV with an est. ~3k to go per NYT.

Having visited Sioux City for the first time last year, I can say that the whole place smelled like meat rendering. I assume this makes smelling Trump's BS slightly more difficult. (Apologies to anyone from Sioux City on here, but it's true.)

Could also have something do with being one of the top (5) most Latino counties in IA and a lot of RVs have better things to do like work on MLK Day rather than showing up with a bunch of grumpy old White fundies to do some weird caucus ritual.

[NOVA Green]

Now it just went to 88% likely DeSantis takes 2nd, 12% Haley. Not sure what just changed in the reporting.

Do not follow the needle.

I've seen the needle and the damage done...  (Well not to myself but...)

[NOVA Green]

Dallas County is fully in

Trump 38%
Haley 27%
DeSantis 25%

DeSantis got a lot of suburban anti-Trump vote - more than I'd have guessed - at Haley's expense.

Polk is mostly in and it's a similar spread, DeSantis a hair above Haley there.

Dallas County Whelp for Haley.

Really looking at it in both Polk & Dallas Trump is only floating around 38%, but yes these are absolutely places where both campaigns were both DeSantis and Haley were effectively dividing the "Non-Trump" PUB Caucus vote....

[NOVA Green]

Well, the Eagles are hella disappointing.  Hey, let's check in on the Iowa caucus and be disappointed all over again. 

Same boat Sister... Got my Igglies on the Tellie for background, while meanwhile checking in on IA.

[NOVA Green]

Trump down to 51% and unlikely to fall below 50%.

Looks extremely unlikely there are enough votes out there for Haley to hit #2 but haven't done the county crunches...

[NOVA Green]

Looks like Haley now took a 2nd place lead in Linn County

Trump- 43%
DeSantis- 23%
Haley- 25%

Per NYT 78% remaining and 1.5k PUB votes to be counted.

[NOVA Green]

Well ultimately calling DeSantis #2 in IA is probably the correct call considering the gap.

There simply aren't enough counties where Haley could significantly make up the gap, unless there happens to be certain precincts with tabulation errors, or dramatic shifts in results from outstanding ballots from the relatively small number of precincts remaining in which counties she has small leads.

[NOVA Green]

Haley loses Johnson County by 8 votes. 8 votes made the difference between Trump sweeping every county and not.

What?!

Source pls....

[NOVA Green]

Haley loses Johnson County by 8 votes. 8 votes made the difference between Trump sweeping every county and not.

Now it's showing Haley wins it by 1 vote....

So if it goes for Haley in the '24 PUB Primary is BRTD allowed to go there for an EMO gig???!!!

[NOVA Green]

Besides Johnson, looks like Trump underperformed his statewide vote share in Polk, Dallas, Story. Exactly where I'd expect. Any other counties I'm missing?

Linn County stands out and certainly Scott County stands out.

Oops forgot to mention that Trump only got 45% in Sioux County.

[NOVA Green]

Trump's ground game in IA was night and day from '16 to '24.

A few clips from an NYT article:

Rather than focusing on door-knocking, Mr. Trump’s campaign harnessed data it had accumulated over his past two campaigns. It reached out to those who supported him in 2016 and 2020 and to the Iowans who gave him campaign donations, and it sought to recruit them as part of his operation.

Mr. Trump’s campaign also made a critical hire: Alex Latcham, who previously worked for the Iowa Republican Party and saw firsthand the flagging ground game that the Trump campaign had in 2016, was named early states director, giving him a hand in overseeing the Iowa operation.

Much of the Trump campaign’s focus was on enlisting “caucus captains,” devoted supporters who agreed to recruit 10 friends and neighbors to caucus for Mr. Trump. To incentivize them, the campaign offered signed hats and chances to meet the former president.

The campaign also knew that Mr. Trump in 2016 and 2020 drew a significant number of followers who did not caucus but still voted for him in the general election. This year, his campaign focused on educating those voters to get them to caucus sites.

The campaign set up panels before Mr. Trump’s rallies where local politicians explained how easy caucuses were. And it deployed educational videos — one with a cartoon blob named Marlon, the other with Lara Trump, the former president’s daughter-in-law — that offered step-by-step instructions to first-time caucusgoers.

[NOVA Green]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/01/15/us/elections/iowa-republican-precinct-results.html


The precinct results really highlight how Trump successfully captures not only rural voters, but also small town and "urban" voters. He really only struggles in a particular kind of suburb which is not very populous especially in a state like Iowa.

Meant to click like on this when I first saw it.

Spent a bit of time scanning around the map...

Then I thought it might be a good idea to grab the '16 IA-PUB Caucus data sets to do a little bit of compare and contrast.

Alas I was unsuccessful in that endeavor, although I was able to nab the IA-PRIM US SEN and US-HOUSE elections...

My initial intention was to look at some of the Evangelical Belt of NW IA, and then perhaps spend a bit of time roaming around metro Des Moines.

Anybody now where we could obtain an IA '16 PUB caucus precinct data set???

Sure we have this NYT story from '16:

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/primaries/iowa

Then there is this recent one from Politico:

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/16/trump-iowa-caucus-analysis-00135949