2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)

[NOVA Green]

Polls now closed in OR and ID.

OR now has a thing where all ballots submitted through the mail are not only free but can be counted so long as they are received by the USPS by ED.

Not quite Cali level of closeness, but still if we get any major close races might take a few days to know the results.

[NOVA Green]

LMAO Schrader  is getting blown out, good riddance!

He probably didn't even know Bend was added to his district.

Still... tons of votes out there...

If I were in the Schrader campaign would be very concerned about the MultCo numbers (Relatively small % of district), but perhaps might be more indicative of the massive number of DEM PRIM voters in NW ClackCo.

Still curious about where the Marion County numbers are coming from...

LinnCo has yet to report, and unless stuff has changed dramatically used to be a bunch of older DINOs in rurals from just a couple GOV elections back.

[NOVA Green]

LMAO Schrader  is getting blown out, good riddance!

He probably didn't even know Bend was added to his district.

Still... tons of votes out there...

If I were in the Schrader campaign would be very concerned about the MultCo numbers (Relatively small % of district), but perhaps might be more indicative of the massive number of DEM PRIM voters in NW ClackCo.

Still curious about where the Marion County numbers are coming from...

LinnCo has yet to report, and unless stuff has changed dramatically used to be a bunch of older DINOs in rurals from just a couple GOV elections back.

Schrader won Linn about 55-45 with 64% in,  if that margin is similar to what he gets in his base in Clackamas it probably won't be enough.   What happens in northwest Clackamas is probably key.

Prob is we don't know many TVs are even out there, ESP since OR has gone Cali with acceptance of late ballots bcs of election law changes.

No idea if me and my spouses ballots have been counted yet in LinnCo, since we just dropped it into the mailbox Sunday.

LinnCo numbers look a bit low and suspect later ballots will tend to be more favorable to Skinner.

Obviously we need to start to see much more results from ClackCo before making assumptions.

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile in OR-CD-05:

Got some prelims from ClackCo: 57-43 Schrader with 1.3k TVs.

Suspect these are predominately rurals and olders...

Marion County: Still tons of votes out there but according to the County website only 1.6k votes (56-44 Schrader).

NYT currently showing it as 1.5k (56-44 Schrader) but we have to remember that basically most of Metro Salem was stripped from the district, and rural and small town DEMs might be a bit more pragmatic...

Personally if I were Schrader would be worried about the LinnCo numbers, since if these are anything close to accurate, most likely he got defeated among DEM voters in Albany (Heavily), and most likely Lebanon and Sweet Home as well, and only his rurals are keeping him alive...

LinnCo numbers theoretically might be worse than Marion Co numbers in Rurals and Small Town Dems, since at least he was known in the district.

Still many of us OR REG DEMs used to solid Progressives like DeFazio wanted something different from our new REP post redistricting....

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile in Oregon Q-Anon poster girl Jo Rae Perkins is leading for an encore of her 2020 drubbing for the Senate.

Still wouldn't be betting on her to win...

EVs likely tend to be more FAV than LV's.

Her numbers aren't exactly overwhelming at this point, even in some of PUB PRIM "Breadbaskets" such as Marion County, WashCo, Polk County, Douglas County, etc...

[NOVA Green]

OR-CD-05 Update

Skinner up 7k votes (60-40) with an estimated 42k votes outstanding.

As I have previously posted OR VBM, AVR, and now ballots are free is received by the USPS come election day.

Vast majority of estimated votes outstanding are from ClackCo (~30k), Marion County (~4k), plus an additional 4k from Multco (57-43 current Skinner).

Schrader better hope he has a major breakthrough in ClackCo and adds to margins in Marion County, but at this point looks like his deficit might be hard to overcome if MultCo Suburban PDX numbers are any potential indicators of results in ClackCo Cities and Uninc areas, where we really haven't seen any major numbers in yet.

Dude should have answered by phone calls when I called his FED and Local Office and told him that although he wasn't my current REP would be come NOV, and that if he continued to opposed Biden's BBB would vote against him in a DEM PRIM or even possibly in a GE.

Sorry, guy should go back to milking cows and dealing with sheep with fertility issues, instead of being a poseur in chief who somehow feels entitled to his office, while simultaneously blocking real s**t that can get real stuff done for Oregonians.

Happy to have voted for the real candidate with agricultural experience and not the rich vet farmer wanna be.

[NOVA Green]

https://www.kgw.com/article/news/politics/elections/primary-election-2022-results-oregon-portland/283-3d3554f8-23b7-4dd9-99b6-11bee5bfe48e

OR-5 is potentially winnable


Republicans are only 1k behind in the total votes in that district than the Democrats

NYT is estimating another ~42k for the Democratic side and another ~32k for the Republican side. If those are estimates are correct, it'd be about D+8 overall, only very slightly worse than the Biden+8.85% result. Of course, as we all know, trying to forecast the general election with primary turnout should be taken with a generous dose of NaCl.

Still closed PRIM State so can't look at DEM & PUB TV PRIMs to infer.

Honestly if anything, where NPAs / NPV RV's tend to lean a bit DEM vs PUB might even be a bit worse than that.

Still, Linn County DINO RVs can sometimes bag 15-20% of DEM PRIM votes, perhaps even a larger chunk than even in Clatsop County.

Ancestral DEM RVs still float around in places, where after all Jimmy Carter did quite well in '76 and Dukakis overperformed national % numbers in the GE in '88.

[NOVA Green]

OR-Cd-05:

Marion County added another small batch of votes earlier today and percentages remained effectively unchanged.

Schrader:           +1,039   (56.0)
Mcleod-Skinner:  +  815    (44.0)

TOTAL:  1,854

Clackamas County also finally released their first reports today (a Couple small batchs) early today.

Both of these had Schrader at 57% versus Mcleod-Skinner's 43%.

Still too early to say what's going on there since it is a relatively small sample and we don't really know where the votes are coming from.

Hopefully Clackamas County will speed up processing, despite the initial glitches now that the Secretary of State is turning up the heat on the local election officials.

[NOVA Green]

Considering Clackamas has reported around 5800 votes in OR-5 for the GOP primary and only about 2600 for the Dem primary I have to assume most of the reported areas are more in the southeast than the northwest.   

Wouldn't be so sure about the locations of the ballots...

For example Clackamas County has only 3,581 total DEM GOV votes reported versus 6,249 PUB GOV reported votes.

Currently Clackamas County currently has only 65,786 Total Ballots Returned (As of 5/18/22 1703 PM Update) with only a 21.5% return rate, while meanwhile the OR-SoS website is showing an average of 33.2% returned total ballots.

Total returned DEM ballots in ClackCo are 31.3k / 103.0k eligible ballots vs 23.5k PUB total returned ballots / 82.9k eligible.

Still, you do raise a good point in that overall it does appear that the ballot issues might be disproportionately hitting NW ClackCo, despite the fact that it is not just heavily DEM precincts getting hit on this...

As an Oregonian Live subscriber can share elements of their subscriber exclusive:

Clackamas County elections officials were woefully unprepared to handle a known ballot counting challenge and likely won’t finish counting votes until early next week at best, county commissioners learned Wednesday.

That could leave key races, including Congressman Kurt Schrader’s difficult reelection bid for the 5th District, hanging. Two county commission seats, the presidency of regional government Metro, several seats in the Legislature and other outcomes hinge on near-final Clackamas results.

County Clerk Sherry Hall didn’t assign anywhere near enough workers to handle the routine number of ballots that voters turned in during the final week of the election cycle, Hall and other county officials disclosed Wednesday. The majority of those ballots were marred by a printing error, first discovered at least two weeks ago, that requires affected ballots to be hand-duplicated onto new ballots that then can be read by vote tallying machines. Even though her office was aware that it would be tedious to duplicate the defective ballots, Hall said that workers did not process ballots over the weekend because most did not want to work.

Another article from yesterday on OregonLive:

Oregon Secretary of State Shemia Fagan admonished Clackamas County election officials Tuesday night for failing to provide timely results from the May primary, calling the delays “unacceptable.”

Even before Tuesday’s worst-in-state performance, a substantial portion of results from Clackamas County were expected to be delayed due to a printing error affecting two-thirds of ballots that required election workers to hand-duplicate votes onto new ballots. The majority of the defective ballots were Democratic ones.

In theory we might not know the results until this coming Monday unless Clackamas County picks up their game, where despite diverting extra county resources into manually transferring ballots, plus the reluctance of election workers to do weekend OT, might end up being a "long haul".

Early on on the 5/17/22 ED, I had warned Atlas to be prepared for election results to take longer to be counted because of changes that allow same day postmarked mail ballots to be counted, which in theory could impact extremely close election results being confirmed.

Now it looks like we have an entire other clusterf**k, which was not something that most independent observers were anticipating....

But yeah... you might well be right on the tea leaves, but it is still extremely frustrating nonetheless.

[NOVA Green]

Is there any reason why Oregon is taking so long to count? Feel like there haven’t been any ballots counted for OR-5 in 2 days

Apparently Clackamas has to copy all the votes onto new ballots manually.

McLeod-Skinner has expanded her lead again to 9.670 Votes in the latest batch of Results.

So aside from Clackamas...

The last batch from Multnomah was extremely more favorable to McLeod-Skinner, which as I had posited on election night that in general the later the ballots cast the more favorable, which might potentially be a poor omen for Schrader's overall chances on top of having to essentially win big in Clackamas to overtake since unless outstanding ballots are being segregated by precinct in Linn and Marion (Which I very much doubt), depending upon how many outstanding ballots are out there it is not unfeasible that Schrader's total raw vote margin in both could continue to shrink with an outside chance that Linn county could even flip if there are really 3k outstanding DEM ballots there.

Not sure how many more outstanding ballots there are from Multnomah, but regardless this will just add to her margins and not subtract from them.


Multnomah County went from 7,359 to 9,128 Total DEM PRIM votes counted.

5/18/22 7:14 AM PST:

McLeod-Skinner:  4,272    (58.1%)         +16.4%       +1,200 Votes
Schrader:            3,072    (41.7%)

5/19/22 6:00 AM PST:

McLeod-Skinner:  5,419    (59.4%)         +19.0%        +1,729 Votes
Schrader:            3,690    (40.4%)

Change:

McLeod-Skinner:   + 1,147   (64.8%)     +29.9%          + 529 Votes
Schrader:             +    618   (34.9%)

[NOVA Green]

So just for fun thought I would throw together a quick map of the precinct results thus far from Multnomah County so that maybe people could chime in on the potential implications in neighboring precincts in Clackamas County while we are waiting.   

Should be pretty self explanatory the two numbers are the McLeod-Skinner vs Schrader % and the 2nd number if Maroon are the McLeod Skinner RAW VOTE margins or if in Black the Schrader RAW VOTE margins.

[NOVA Green]

Looks like part of delays in Marion County election results are possibly also impacting election counting.

Have avoided commenting for the most part on the OR-PUB-SEN and OR-PUB-GOV races thus far, but suspect Marion County issues might also be part of the reason we aren't seeing calls yet in both races.

Marion County Clerk Bill Burgess said county officials missed a step in posting a file to the Secretary of State's website. While county election results were posted on its own website soon after 8 p.m., those results were not included as part of the larger state tallies until later Tuesday night.

Burgess apologized Wednesday morning to voters for the "inconvenience" and "aggravation" the issue caused. He said he doesn't think it is going to be a problem in the future.

More people appear to have cast ballots this year than the most recent comparable election. In 2018, roughly 60,000 Marion County voters participated in that year's primary, Burgess said.

https://www.statesmanjournal.com/story/news/politics/2022/05/18/2022-primary-election-results-marion-clackamas-county/65356416007/

[NOVA Green]

Neglected to post this earlier, but however for context about those wondering about OR-22 PRIM election results, this will likely be a major factor in many higher profile DEM/PUB PRIM elections considering the sheer total numbers of RVs from both parties in on the most populated as well as a key statewide wide "swing county" for GOV and SEN elections:

The massive delay in tabulating election results for Oregon’s third-largest county could continue until mid-June, the Clackamas County clerk said Wednesday.

Clerk Sherry Hall defended herself from accusations that she failed to plan to handle a huge influx of ballots that must be processed by hand due to defective barcodes, even though she learned about the printing flaw two weeks before Election Day. But the veteran election official acknowledged she and her staff are struggling and said that voters — and candidates — may not see final tallies until the June 13 deadline to certify the election.

https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2022/05/clackamas-county-ballot-counting-could-stretch-to-mid-june-unapologetic-county-elections-head-says.html

[NOVA Green]

OR-CD-05-DEM PRIM UPDATE:

A few minor updates...

Marion County added a small number of new ballots today.

Their next scheduled update isn't until Wednesday 5/25/22, but maybe they'll provide some update prior since they ran into some vote counting / ballot delays (Although to a much lesser extent than Clackamas County).

5/18/22 Update:

McLeod-Skinner:  1,494    (44.1%)         
Schrader:            1,892    (55.9%)        +11.8%       +398 Votes

5/20/22 Update:

McLeod-Skinner:  1,896    (45.8%)         
Schrader:            2,246    (54.2%)        +8.4%        +350 Votes

TOTAL CHANGE 5/18 > 5/20:

McLeod-Skinner:  +402    (53.2%)        +6.4%        +48 Votes       
Schrader:            +354    (46.8%)       
TOTAL New Votes: 756

Clackamas County added a small numbers as another poster noted.

5/18/22 Update:

McLeod-Skinner:  1,129    (42.4%)         
Schrader:            1,517    (57.0%)        +14.6%       +388 Votes

5/19/22 Update:

McLeod-Skinner:  1,785    (43.9%)         
Schrader:            2,257    (55.5%)        +11.6%       +472 Votes

TOTAL CHANGE 5/18 > 5/19:

McLeod-Skinner:  +656    (46.7%)           
Schrader:            +740    (52.6%)      +5.9%        +84 Votes       
TOTAL New Votes:  +1,406


NOTE: Deschutes, Marion and Linn Counties don't have new vote updates scheduled until Wednesday, 5/25/22.

Not sure about Multnomah....

Jefferson county has only one precinct, which honestly I don't believe to have very many voters at all let alone a ton of Democratic Primary voters:

Suttle Lake (Precinct 15), but honestly if it comes down to this one precinct we are definitely in automatic recount territory....

Still keeping it on my radar...

Couple brief notes:

1.) Generally what we have observed thus far within all counties within the district is that the more election results come in the better McLeod-Skinners numbers improve.

This has been observed in Multnomah, Marion, and Linn Counties (Although I will exempt Clackamas County for the time being for obvious reasons).

2.) We don't really have a total solid handle on exactly how many outstanding votes are remaining to be counted, since this is looking more like a "Cali Style" election now that ballots are counted so long as they are post-marked / received by election day if they are Mail-In-Ballots.

Hopefully we have greater clarity on Total Votes (TV) outstanding by Monday for all of the counties involved...

[NOVA Green]

OR CD-06: A Trickle of new votes added when I checked this morning with Mcleod-Skinner winning all three batches.

Breakdown below:

Clackamas County-  (71) new votes added

Mcleod-Skinner-     +39    (54.9%)           +11.2%       +8 Votes
Schrader-              +31    (43.7%)

Marion County-           (517) new votes added

Mcleod-Skinner-     +273    (52.8%)           +6.7%       +40 Votes
Schrader-              +233    (45.1%)

Multnomah County-       (110) new votes added

Mcleod-Skinner-     +68   (61.8%)           +23.6%       +26 Votes
Schrader-              +42    (38.2%)

[NOVA Green]

Schrader campaign apparently was allowed to enter the Clackamas County elections office early to observe ballot counting, in the latest problems emerging for the Clackamas County elections office.

On Thursday, McLeod-Skinner filed a formal complaint with the Oregon Secretary of State’s office — as reported by Willamette Week — alleging that someone from Schrader’s campaign was allowed to observe the ballot counting process before the office opened.

Hall told reporters that a Schrader campaign representative was let into the building around 7 a.m., but they shouldn’t have entered the building until it opened at 8:30 a.m. Someone from McLeod-Skinner’s campaign wasn’t allowed into the observer’s area until after 8:30 a.m.

Reporters at the Friday press conference drilled Hall about whether this raised security concerns with the ballot count. Hall said all rooms in the building can only be accessed with security badges, and not every badge can access all rooms. Hall also said the room where votes are tallied can only be accessed by her, the elections manager, and a third person, whose job title she couldn’t remember.

https://www.opb.org/article/2022/05/20/clackamas-county-clerk-doesnt-know-how-schrader-campaign-accessed-elections-office-before-opening/

The complaint, obtained by WW from the Secretary of State’s Office, says an observer for the Schrader campaign was allowed into the building at 7:30 am Thursday—an hour before the McLeod-Skinner campaign observer was allowed into the observation room. (The McLeod-Skinner campaign says a Clackamas County logbook shows when the Schrader campaign’s observer entered the room.)

“Early access for one campaign and delayed access for an opposing campaign is not just unequal treatment,” says the May 19 complaint filed by Jamie for Oregon campaign manager Nichole van Eikeren. “It expressly violates ORS 254.482 as well as Clackamas County’s own SOS Security Plan.”

The campaign asked the secretary of state to investigate.

https://www.wweek.com/news/state/2022/05/19/in-state-elections-complaint-mcleod-skinner-campaign-alleges-unequal-access-to-clackamas-county-vote-count/

[NOVA Green]

OR-CD06- DEM PRIM Update:

So not too much in the way of major developments...

The official OR SoS website still shows 48,684 Total Votes thus far, but the New York Times now shows 48,813 Total Votes.

Numbers don't match and SoS numbers between counties remain unchanged since my last update.

So I was curious and decided to compare NYT numbers against OR SoS numbers to see if maybe they caught a variation between a county level update not uploaded yet to the OR-SoS website.

Interestingly enough:

Deschutes County data sets for TV's match between NYT and SoS.

Multnomah County the (24) vote delta appears to be NYT not counting Write-Ins.

Linn County the (101) vote delta appears to also be the NYT not counting Write-Ins.

Marion County the (53) vote delta appears to also be the NYT not counting Write-Ins.

Still, the data-sets for Clackamas County does not match:

OR SoS currently shows 4,140 TVs and NYT shows 4,551 TVs.

So clearly Clackamas County is the source of the newest updates, regardless of the different ballot counting methods (NYT doesn't include Write-In ballots for at least many of the counties within the district).

Checked the ClackCo website and sure enough newest batch of ballots identified appear to be new votes:

OLD (OR SoS Website)

McLeod-Skinner:  1,824    (44.1%)        
Schrader:            2,288    (55.3%)        +11.2%       +464 Votes


NEW: (Clackamas County Elections website Link Below)

McLeod-Skinner:  2,012    (43.9%)        
Schrader:            2,539    (55.1%)        +11.2%       +527 Votes

Batch Difference: + 442 New Total DEM CD-05 PRIM Votes

McLeod-Skinner:  +188   (42.5%)        
Schrader:            +251   (56.8%)        +14.3%       +63 Votes

Better batch for Schrader than the last small batch, but still without knowing exactly where numbers are coming from with the whole ballot printing SNAFU 57-43 Schrader margins isn't going to cut it going forward to erase the Deschutes County and Multnomah County raw vote totals, regardless of how many votes might currently be "in reserve" in both counties.

Wednesday obviously might provide a greater degree of clarity, since hopefully Marion and Linn will dump most of their remaining ballots...

Clackamas County is facing dramatically increasing level of local and statewide frustration, not to mention the National Profile currently on this election.

Also turns out the head of the elections department is apparently is either a partisan Republican and/ or incompetent in her job since way back in 2014 by referring officially on a ballot instead of the "Democratic Party" apparently the "Democrat Party".

Either way she should be able to get a good OR PERS retirement package since not only Democrats but also Republicans in Oregon are extremely frustrated by what should have been a completely preventable fiasco in the state of Oregon which practically invented the 100% all VbM state.

Very embarrassing performance, and clearly we need a competent public official to oversea the department who actually delves into the details and performs their fiduciary job responsibilities, rather than apparently someone who is "just coasting" and maxing their retirement $$$ at the hands of OR taxpayers.

EDIT: Forgot to link to Clackamas County Elections website.

https://dochub.clackamas.us/documents/drupal/34a8e57a-ef9c-4c89-9672-e356f69557d3

[NOVA Green]

Clackamas County election clerk continues to buy time and defy the Secretary of State when it comes to providing a timeline for ballot counting...

Clackamas County’s top election official on Monday provided Oregon’s secretary of state with a verbal update on the county’s progress processing ballots, but said the county wouldn’t be able to submit a timeline detailing when it will finish tallying votes until Tuesday.

Oregon Secretary of State Shemia Fagan had demanded that Clackamas County Clerk Sherry Hall submit a written plan by Monday amid ongoing delays that have upended multiple primary races and sullied the state’s celebrated vote-by-mail system.

However, Ben Morris, a spokesperson for Fagan, said late Monday that the county had requested another day to provide its full plan to the state because it didn’t start hand-duplicating ballots marred with a printing error until Monday morning at 7 a.m.

On Monday, Hall did not respond to text messages or emails sent by The Oregonian/OregonLive. Reached by phone in her office twice, she each time said she was in the middle of a meeting and promptly hung up.

In an emailed response sent by a county spokesperson but attributed to Hall, she failed to answer basic questions, including how many volunteer election workers counted votes over the weekend and how many workers from other counties were assisting with the effort. In a press release Monday evening, county officials said that 88 people processed ballots Sunday and 156 processed ballots Monday.

https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2022/05/clackamas-county-clerk-mum-on-ballot-count-timeline-demanded-by-oregon-secretary-of-state.html

[NOVA Green]

@Nova Green,
NY Times says 77 % of the 5th District Vote is in
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/05/17/us/elections/results-oregon-us-house-district-5.html

For my part I have seen enough, McLeod-Skinner defeats Schrader.

The NYTimes estimate is still very garbage for Clackamas County (in reality it's probably around 25k) but McLeod-Skinner will still almost certainly win, given the absurd margin Schrader would need to win by.

Very much agree with this...

Still every new batch of ballots we see doesn't appear like Schrader is coming anywhere close to where he needs to be in Clackamas.

This AM just a few more numbers posted from Clackamas.

Numbers like this just aren't going to come anywhere close to overcoming the large Mcleod-Skinner leads in Deschutes and Multnomah...

+2,216 new DEM ballots added to the count:

Mcleod- Skinner:   + 1,043      (47.1%)
Schrader:             + 1,163      (52.5%)             +5.4%       +120 Votes

[NOVA Green]

What's the recount laws in Texas?

Applying the above formula:

Henry Cuellar*
23,735 +50.5%50.5%
Jessica Cisneros
23,234

Difference: 501


23,735 * .1 = 2,373.5

So yes, Cisneros can request one. Historically speaking it would be rare for a recount to overturn a 500 vote difference in a congressional race though.

This is going to be super close

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1529309739313774593?s=20&t=B1RP4nmPClV...

Per the TX SOS’s site
https://results.texas-election.com/landing-page

17% of precincts are out and they are all Bexar.
We don’t know how many votes those are, but that seems good for Cisternos.

Hopefully we can take out the crook () and run a clean progressive DEM in this seat and carry it on to victory.

https://www.texastribune.org/2022/02/01/henry-cuellar-fbi-raid-election/

https://www.tpr.org/government-politics/2022-05-23/fbi-raids-open-borders-and-abortion-heres-what-cisneros-and-cuellar-are-fighting-for-in-the-d28-runoff

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2022/04/13/rep-henry-cuellar-not-a-target-after-fbi-raided-home-campaign-office-lawyer-says/

[NOVA Green]

Held off posting last night out of deference to primary night, but for anyone interested since in CD-05-DEM PRIM results, since the race has not been called yet by any of the reputable news outlets (Wasserman and Atlas pundits don't count).   

Clackamas County has had a few dumps and is now up to 13,048 TOT VOTES in that election (+6,250):

Mcleod- Skinner:   + 2,952     (47.2%)
Schrader:             + 3,263     (52.2%)             +5.0%       +311 Votes

*** NOTE- NYT hasn't yet updated to reflect and looks to be about 5k behind official figures. Assuming their estimates of 21k remaining DEM ballots from ClackCo were accurate that number would then shrink to only ~ 16k.  ***

Deschutes County added another 1,448 DEM Votes about 1 1/2 hrs ago:

Mcleod- Skinner:   + 932     (64.4%)            +29.5%       +427 Votes
Schrader:             + 505     (34.9%) 

*** NYT is updated and shows and estimated 3k remaining, but again I don't totally trust these numbers. Interestingly enough Mcleod-Skinner's margin went down. ***

Jefferson County     makes it first appearance with a grand total of (1) total DEM vote for Mcleod-Skinner.

** NYT is estimating (100) total DEM PRIM voters remaining. We shall see... haven't checked how many REG DEMs are in the one precinct in CD-05 ***

Linn County added a few more votes since my last update (+786)

Mcleod- Skinner:   + 396     (50.4%)            +2.4%       +19 Votes
Schrader:             + 377     (48.0%) 

*** NYT is updated. They estimate <1,000 votes remaining. Even if Schrader were to get a decent closing here (Which isn't really how things have been trending) can't imagine that he bags more than a couple hundred extra votes. ***

Marion County had a small update since my last posting  (+ 213 Votes).

Mcleod- Skinner:   + 78     (36.6%)           
Schrader:             +132     (62.0%)       +25.4%       +54 Votes

*** NYT is updated. Pretty decent Schrader % here! NYT is estimating <1k ballots, so might be a couple hundred more for Schrader out there best case scenario for his campaign ***

Multnomah County: has a trickle more in (+ 65 Total Votes)

Mcleod- Skinner:   + 38   (58.5%)       +18,5%       +8 Votes         
Schrader:             + 26    (40.0%)       

*** NYT is updated and shows an estimated 1k votes remaining. Call me slightly skeptical. ***

Overall one of the frustrating things about this election not just the giant SNAFU in ClackCo, but is also that we don't have a very good handle on estimated votes remaining. Unless the NYT is actually calling up the various County Election Offices and getting updates, I suspect many of their estimated votes remaining are just math algorithms based upon some type of statistical modelling rather than actual hard data.

 

[NOVA Green]

OR-CD-05-DEM
:
Another decent sized Clackamas County dump since Yesterday posted on their county website a half-hour ago, so not updated on OR SoS or NYT of 5,876 additional votes:

Mcleod- Skinner:   + 2,818      (48.0%)
Schrader:             + 3,031      (51.6%)             +3.6%       +213 Votes

Needless to say if the NYT's estimates of 15k votes remaining from ClackCo were accurate that now leaves only about 9k remaining in that county.

If Mr. Schrader has not yet started writing his concession speech now might be an opportune time to start.

[NOVA Green]

Does Schrader actually lose Clackamas?

My guess would be no, though I think he could end up with only 51-52% once all the votes are counted. I'm thinking McLeod-Skinner probably wins by about 10% when all is said and done.

So although I tend to also suspect Schrader will hold Clackamas I thought it might be interesting to take a bit of a peek at the 2018 DEM PRIM House Precinct results from ClackCo to see WHERE the DEM vote Share in DEM Non-GE PRIMs come from.

In 2018 there were a total of 36,937 DEM ballots cast for US House races in the May Primary in all of Clackamas County.

Oregon City-  2.5k
Gladstone-    1.2k
Milwaukee-    2.5k
Molalla-         0.8k
Portland-       
Canby-         1.2k
West Linn-    3.2k
Lake Oswego- 4.7k
Wilsonville-    1.8k
Sandy-         
Tualatin-        0.3k

Difficult trying to translate precinct results by municipality between '18 / '20 and new precinct lines, and although there are many areas around Happy Valley now absorbed into CD-03, it's still pretty clear that even among DEM voters in the current CD-05 that relatively wealthy PDX burbs such as Lake Oswego and possibly even places such as West Linn might be Schrader Country, while meanwhile likely JMS heavy margins in places such as Milwaukee, Oregon City, and even Uninc areas around Oak Grove.

My general assumption is that Schrader did pretty decent within the "Exurban" and "Rural Dem" areas around places like Sandy & Canby.

Wilsonville is a bit of a question mark in my mind when it comes to DEM PRIM votes.

So obviously missing quite a bit of numbers from the '18 votes in my brief presentation, but truth be told many of those not listed are either in the current OR-CD-03 or heavily RUR or UNINC.

[NOVA Green]

Got distracted and turns out Clackamas County is getting closer to closing as of their update a couple hours ago.

Chance of Clackamas County flipping starts to become increasingly slimmer for anybody placing odd bets.

Very much looking forward to looking at precinct results once all of the dust has settled down...

As I posted previously some earlier precinct maps from the Multnomah County sections of the district, looks like upper-income PDX DEMs in the 'Burbs likely backed Schrader by moderate margins but he got hit hard in more traditional Working and Middle-Class PDX burbs.



+ 4,708 new votes for OR-CD-05-DEM-PRIM

Mcleod- Skinner:   + 2,273    (48.3%)
Schrader:             + 2,418    (51.4%)             +3.1%       +145 Votes

[NOVA Green]

CNN finally projects McLeod-Skinner in OR-5!

That Donkey Network still claims that they are the "Most Trusted News Leader".

I have my doubts though.

When it comes US Politics they sound like an leftwing Propaganda Network it the mould of MSDNC!

Those certainly are words

Yeah... no idea whatever the OP was referencing in his random rant, but it is interesting that basically the new OR CD-05 effectively has shown an overwhelming Progressive DEM vote within the handful of precincts within Multnomah County combined with the Deschutes County precincts around Bend to effectively create a Progressive Majority DEM-PRIM electorate.

Clackamas County PRIM numbers were underwhelming for Schrader, most likely from predominately working and middle-class "Inner PDX 'Burbs" such as Milwaukie, Gladstone, Oak Grove (Uninc), while meanwhile I suspect wealthier PDX 'burbs voted Schrader, combined with DEMs in rural and Exurban ClackCo.

Marion County effectively has a small number of precincts and RVs compared to the old district, with much fewer DEMs now that Metro Salem has been stripped out of the district.

Linn County in theory, since basically it all went from CD-04 to CD-05 after redistricting should be a more favorable place for a conservative DEM, but reality the vast majority of reg dems in the county live in swing cities such as Albany, and even in Lebanon, not to mention a pretty solid base of REG DEM voters in "East Corvallis" precinct across the river.

DEM-PRIM doesn't tell us what OR-05 GE will look like, but as I posted previously in the '20 OR-House-GE-Thread, DeFazio's 2020 numbers in OR-04 were tracking only 1-2% above Biden numbers in many places in Linn County, so doubtful Schrader would have been able to do much better in 2022 (Quite possibly worst bcs of depressed DEM TO #s).

Regardless TO will likely be very high in 2022 in CD-05 DEM strongholds in 2022, including College educated voters in places like Bend and NW ClackCo, where you also have tons of NPA's, registered through AVR and get a chance to vote easily through VBM.

If anything one might wonder if PUB TO will be depressed w/o Trump on the ticket, with a Q-Anon nut running for OR-SEN.

The "trying to seize our guns" argument only goes so far where there are a lot of gun owners who like to hunt and do the shooting range scene who also vote DEM regularly for FED elections....