Afghan government collapse.

[NOVA Green]

A bit of a fun story from Afghanistan at last:

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/afghanistan-deutscher-kommt-mit-spd-parteibuch-durch-taliban-kontrolle-a-2dd804cb-9330-4f74-94c2-1612bac6db0e

A German citizen of Afghan descent sucessfully bluffed his way through Taliban checkpoints at the Kabul airport by passing off his SPD membership book as a passport.

Fortunately I have such one in my cubboard. Lmao.

Hopefully this getting posted in a major German news magazine doesn't prevent others from successfully using such a tactic.

I would imagine in a country with a 57% illiteracy rate there could likely be a black market for official looking documents to make it through various checkpoints for those looking to find a way out.

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile in Afghanistan (source: BBC liveblog)

National flag-waving Afghans have been seen protesting in several cities on Thursday, which marks the 102nd anniversary of Afghanistan's independence and falls at a time of great uncertainty and upheaval for the country.

One clip shared on social media appears to show a crowd in Kabul chanting "our flag, our identity" about the black, red and green tricolour national flag.

The Reuters news agency, citing witnesses, reports that several people may have been killed at a similar protest on Thursday in Asadabad - either by gunfire or in stampedes the firing triggered.

The reports of casualties come a day after several deaths were also reported at flag-related demonstrations in the eastern city of Jalalabad.

Videos on social media have shown some protesters appearing to remove and replace Taliban flags in places - pocket displays of defiance against the group's swift rise to power.

Additionally, there were protests in Kabul with folks waving the Afghan National Flag, while meanwhile the Taliban provided security for the Shiite population to celebrate the Ashura Holiday in the City (Possibly to prevent a terrorist atrocity from more hardline Sunni factions?).

The protest in Kabul included one near the Presidential palace, with another demonstration of about (200) broken up by the Taliban shortly after people had begun to assemble.

The Taliban also announced a curfew in the city of Southeastern city of Khost after protests there.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/interactive/2021/taliban-kabul-protest/?itid=lk_fullstory

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/08/19/world/taliban-afghanistan-news

[NOVA Green]

I am seeing reports that Twitter suspended Saleh's account claiming "violation of guidelines"?

Does anybody have an easy way to verify, since I don't necessarily trust the sources at this point?

Doesn't look as if he provided any updated Tweets within the past (17) hours.

[NOVA Green]

German opinion poll on the Afghanistan mission of the German military (2001-21), conducted August 17-18.





Mission was a mistake from the start: 40%
Mission and withdrawal were correct decisions: 10%
Mission was the right thing to do, but should have been continued: 41%

Wowzers!

Looks like support for the German military engagement in Afghanistan might even have higher level of support than US support for the American engagement in Afghanistan.

Granted the character and scale of both countries military involvement is substantively both quantitatively and qualitatively different, but for many Germans my understanding is that this mission was arguably and effectively the first "True" combat mission since WW II.

I was in Hungary for a week travelling with a friend of mine whose Father was Donauschwaben, along with a French-Vietnamese friend between Christmas and New Years back in '94, visiting some of his Hungarian family members who he had never met until nach dem wende, watching parades of NATO military vehicles on a Highway some 20-25 km weg from the border with Serbia, where debate around what role if any Germany should play in the upcoming conflict was being fiercely debated within Germany.

I also remember how Joschka Fischer, former APO / Sponti leftist activist from the late '60s / early '70s, later to become a more prominent figure within Die Grünen as the Junior partner with Schroeder's SPD GVT, and German Foreign Minister in 1999 supported the NATO bombing campaign in Serbia...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/1999/may/14/greenpolitics

It is strange to see these types of poll numbers in 2021 from Germany and am curious if we have any idea of regional breakdowns, party positions on the former and current German role within Afghanistan.

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/Oriana0214/status/1428445114762997765

Hmm... if true not cool.

I mean, it's not like the US Gvt and US Military are Travel Agencies or Airline Companies, where you have to pay up front and have a ticket to get on the plane in a "for profit" corporate scenario.

Sounds like basically they're saying more like "Here's the cost and we'll collect later" type deal.

I would imagine at some point there will likely be a line item in the budget to cover the cost for those airlifted so nobody has to pay out of pocket, but last thing you want people just trying to get out is to hear is that "You'll have to at some point pay the cost of a last minute one-way ticket".

So let's say hypothetically, the US ends up doing helicopter evacs of US Citizens in remote areas not able to make it to Kabul, would they then have to pay an add-on cost something like what you might have to pay for a Med-Evac bill without insurance if you had to get lifted out of some remote wilderness area in the US to make it to a major regional Hospital after getting in a car wreck???

[NOVA Green]

Afghan authorities have confirmed that a young footballer fell to his death after trying to stow away on a US military plane leaving Kabul airport.

Zaki Anwari, 19, had played for Afghanistan's national youth team.

Further details of when he died have not been disclosed.

Since the Taliban's recapture of Afghanistan, thousands of people have scrambled to Kabul's airport as Western countries rush to evacuate their citizens and Afghan colleagues.

Images emerged on Monday showing hundreds of people running alongside a US air force plane as it moved down a runway. Some people were seen clinging to its side.

Local media reports said that at least two people fell to their deaths after it took off. The US air force has also confirmed that human remains were found in the landing gear of an aircraft after it arrived in Qatar.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-58272740

Sad story and I read it earlier today.

The part that tripped me up from the quote: "Afghan authorities confirmed...."

Who are the authorities considering there isn't a real Government in any sense of the word yet, despite Taliban military control over most of the country?

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/MSharif1990/status/1428755292171481088?s=19

Newsweek is reporting the number could be as high as (3) / (15) districts of Baghlan Province:

Resistance fighters in Afghanistan have recaptured three areas in the country's Baghlan province from the Taliban, according to reports on Friday, as locals fight back against the recent takeover.

Anti-Taliban forces reportedly took back control of the Banu, Pol-e-Hesar and De Salah districts in Baghlan province, while around 60 Taliban fighters were killed or injured in the fighting.

https://www.newsweek.com/anti-taliban-resistance-recaptures-multiple-areas-afghans-fight-back-1621437

It should also be noted that the province is majority Ethnic Tajik and Hazara, as well as partially adjacent to Panjshir Province, both of which could have future significance from both a political and military perspective with Taliban forces much more stretched out as they try to garrison large cities where historically they have had much less support than in many rural areas within the country.

[NOVA Green]

https://www.twitter.com/AirMobilityCmd/status/1428700131524845569

823?? That's incredible (if not insane).

Yeah, these planes are work-horses with a load something like the following:

Mission

The C-17 Globemaster III is the most flexible cargo aircraft to enter the airlift force. The C-17 is capable of rapid strategic delivery of troops and all types of cargo to main operating bases or directly to forward bases in the deployment area. The aircraft can perform tactical airlift and airdrop missions and can transport litters and ambulatory patients during aeromedical evacuations. The inherent flexibility and performance of the C-17 force improve the ability of the total airlift system to fulfill the worldwide air mobility requirements of the United States.

The ultimate measure of airlift effectiveness is the ability to rapidly project and sustain an effective combat force close to a potential battle area. Threats to U.S. interests have changed in recent years, and the size and weight of U.S.-mechanized firepower and equipment have grown in response to improved capabilities of potential adversaries. This trend has significantly increased air mobility requirements, particularly in the area of large or heavy outsize cargo. As a result, newer and more flexible airlift aircraft are needed to meet potential armed contingencies, peacekeeping or humanitarian missions worldwide. The C-17 is capable of meeting today's demanding airlift missions.

Load: 102 troops/paratroops; 36 litter and 54 ambulatory patients and attendants; 170,900 pounds (77,519 kilograms) of cargo (18 pallet positions)

https://www.af.mil/About-Us/Fact-Sheets/Display/Article/1529726/c-17-globemaster-iii/

[NOVA Green]

Low hanging fruit and most of you who post have likely already seen this report (Still we have tons of viewers and few posters so some of them might not have seen this), but still note-worthy in terms of the extension of US Military Evacuations from outside of the secured airport in Kabul:

The U.S. military rescued 169 Americans from a hotel near Kabul airport on Thursday in an expansion of the U.S. military’s operation to evacuate Americans from Afghanistan after the fall of the Kabul government to the Taliban.

The Americans were at the Baron Hotel, which is near the airport, a U.S. official familiar with the situation said. The official said the operation, carried out with Chinook helicopter flights, was the only Defense Department mission of its kind so far.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/08/20/afghanistan-kabul-taliban-live-updates/#link-PNKGXLIH2VCX5IF33TF7NIRRSQ

[NOVA Green]

Another story which hasn't really gotten any coverage on this thread has to do with not only the US Supplied weapons in which the Taliban seized from ANA bases, but ALSO which weapons might have ended up in the hands of the current Anti-Taliban Military Forces (Not including ISIS / Daesh in the mix).

A few highlights for those of you not able to get behind the paywall, which I can do as a paid subscriber:

As the Taliban swept into power across Afghanistan, it captured many millions, perhaps billions, of dollars worth of U.S. military equipment that had once belonged to Afghan forces.

Footage from areas captured by the militant group shows bedraggled but celebratory fighters in control of U.S.-made guns, armored vehicles and even Blackhawk helicopters and drones. Beyond the flashy hardware, experts are also concerned that the extremist group would now be in charge of sophisticated technology, including biometric devices used by the U.S. military to identify Afghans who assisted Americans and allies.


...

Before it was captured by the Taliban, the Afghan air force had more than 40 operational U.S.-made MD-530 helicopters, the report said, and more than 30 UH-60 Blackhawk helicopters. There were also more than 23 usable A-29 Super Tucano attack planes, some of which had been upgraded to drop laser-guided bombs.

...

Open source analysts Stijn Mitzer and Joost Oliemans have tracked videos and images released by forces loyal to the insurgents and recorded over 30 pieces of equipment that now belongs to what they dubbed the “Taliban Air Force,” ranging from at least one A-29 Super Tucano to seven Insitu ScanEagle unmanned aerial vehicles — drones — made by Boeing.

Four Blackhawk helicopters, if not more, appeared to be in Taliban control. At a cost of $10 million each, it represents an expensive catch.

....

Some of the more expensive U.S. equipment appear to have been disabled or removed by departing Afghan officials and forces.

Mitzer said that video evidence showed that a number of aircraft, including three Blackhawk helicopters, had been taken to Panjshir Valley north of Kabul, where anti-Taliban forces have gathered under the leadership of Vice President Amrullah Saleh and Ahmad Massoud, the son of late Northern Alliance leader Ahmad Shah Massoud.

Uzbekistan claimed on Monday that around 22 planes and 24 helicopters from Afghanistan had been forced to land after entering Uzbek airspace. Dempsey said that satellite imagery supported these claims, which if accurate would represent around a quarter of all Afghan Air Force aircraft.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/08/20/us-weapons-taliban-afghanistan/

I don't want to exceed quote % on the article, but definitely worth a look for those of you who have a limited number of free WP articles per month interested in the topic.

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/MSharif1990/status/1428755292171481088?s=19

Newsweek is reporting the number could be as high as (3) / (15) districts of Baghlan Province:

Resistance fighters in Afghanistan have recaptured three areas in the country's Baghlan province from the Taliban, according to reports on Friday, as locals fight back against the recent takeover.

Anti-Taliban forces reportedly took back control of the Banu, Pol-e-Hesar and De Salah districts in Baghlan province, while around 60 Taliban fighters were killed or injured in the fighting.

https://www.newsweek.com/anti-taliban-resistance-recaptures-multiple-areas-afghans-fight-back-1621437

It should also be noted that the province is majority Ethnic Tajik and Hazara, as well as partially adjacent to Panjshir Province, both of which could have future significance from both a political and military perspective with Taliban forces much more stretched out as they try to garrison large cities where historically they have had much less support than in many rural areas within the country.

Pro Taliban accounts on social media have begun to share a propaganda message confirming the seizures by "betrayers" and that 15 "Mujahideen" were martyred.. so the 60+ number is likely correct.

Thanks!

Baghlan Province on the surface might appear like an unusual choice of a counter-attack from the Non-Talib armed formations, even while I had previously alluded to the potential future strategic political and military rationale.

We are talking about a province which is 80% of the population lives in rural districts and only 20% in urban districts.

Still with a total population of 750k > 1 Million, it is not insignificant as a population center, although not nearly as well known to most Americans since the largest City only has a population of some 240k (8th largest city in Afghanistan).

It is also strategically located not that far away from Mazar-i-Sharif (Population ~500k) and roughly 120 Miles from the province, which has only one of four International Airports in Afghanistan and only 34 Miles from the Uzbek border (!)

Roughly 70% of the terrain is Mountainous or Semi-Mountainous, which can both allow the Anti-Taliban Movement flexibility in military tactics, but also contains a major highway as part of a theoretical drive to potentially push back most of the Taliban advances in the North and combine with Afghan ANA forces who retreated over the border into Uzbekistan with a decent chunk of the Afghan National Army Air Units, as well as Military Helicopters, APCs, etc....

Interestingly enough Baghlan Province was one of a relatively small number of rural provinces which stayed supportive towards the Red Army, even in the latter days of their War in Afghanistan, mainly because the local population was extremely skeptical and fearing the hardline elements within the (7) main Mujahideen political-military formations, as well as legacy goodwill towards the Soviet Union which had invested considerable resources in rural agricultural development programs within the province going back the mid '50s.

Looking at it from a Military perspective, it is interesting that the first military attack against the Taliban is using a similar route, which effectively in ran from Panjshir to the NW, and eventually across the border to Uzbekistan to chase the Red Army out.

The political support levels for the Taliban in 2021 are unclear, despite the fact that as of 12/20 it was considered one of the Provinces in NE Afghanistan with the highest levels of Taliban Military / Political control:

Baghlan province has a population of approximately 1 015 000. The main ethnic groups in the province are Tajiks, Pashtuns and Hazaras. It borders the provinces of Bamyan, Samangan, Kunduz, Takhar, Panjshir, Parwan, and Balkh on a short stretch, and is divided into 15 districts. Baghlan’s capital, Pul-e-Khumri, is known to be an economic hub connected to eight other provinces by the Kabul-North highway - the major transit route between Kabul and the north of the country - which is also of strategic importance for military operations and considered to be decisive for the security situation in the province. The stretch on Highway One between Kabul and Pul-e-Khumri was described by a source as sufficiently safe. On the road further north, however, several incidents and road closures and obstructions as a result of clashes and non-State armed groups’ presence and activity were reported.

Baghlan is among the provinces with a high Taliban presence and Afghan forces have been engaged in deadly battles in parts of it. Baghlan is considered to be one of the most Taliban-controlled or influenced provinces in the north-eastern region. Besides Taliban fighters, local pro-government militias supported by the NDS are reportedly active in the province. Jundullah, which has affiliated itself with ISKP, also had presence in the province. However, reference was only made to the existence of smaller groups of ISKP supporters, with no security incidents specifically attributed to ISKP within the reporting period.

The majority of the districts were categorised by LWJ as contested, with two districts considered under Taliban control, and one district categorised as under government control.

https://easo.europa.eu/country-guidance-afghanistan-2020/baghlan

We can also look at a fairly recent article from the New York Times, which does a bit of compare /contrast with the Soviet and American experience in Afghanistan:

In the spring of 1987, Artyom Borovik, a Russian journalist covering the Soviet war in Afghanistan, bumped along the Kunduz-to-Baghlan road in the back of an armored personnel carrier. As Borovik wound over the pockmarked terrain, damaged by mines and mortar shells, the Soviets had already been at war there for nearly eight years.

“If roads could howl in pain, I would prefer to be deaf between Kunduz and Baghlan,” Borovik wrote in his 1990 book, “The Hidden War.” On Borovik’s lap was a weathered map from the 1950s, the same map a British journalist and his family had used three decades earlier while they traveled across Afghanistan in a white Jaguar.

Last week, I climbed into the back of an American CH-47 Chinook helicopter in Kunduz, 10 days after the United States’ war in Afghanistan turned 18 years old. The helicopter’s destination: an Afghan base in Baghlan Province.

American troops stopped moving long distances on Afghanistan’s roads years ago, switching almost entirely to air travel to avoid the Taliban’s roadside bombs. The Kunduz-to-Baghlan road, now referred to as a highway, flashed below. Tan hills and valleys stretched alongside.

....

For at least a year, residents of Baghlan had asked for American and Afghan forces to clear out the Taliban who were in Dand-e-Ghuri and Pul-i-Kumri, the same areas the Soviets were trying to clear when Borovik leapt from the back of his Russian armored personnel carrier in 1987. The Taliban had been there for at least four years. The people were tired. Their war, in many ways, was almost 40 years old.

General Sadat, the young commander whom the American military has come to adore and is often seen as the next generation of Afghan leadership, said his forces would take back the areas under Taliban control. They would launch an operation soon, he said. Tea was served. The Americans listened through ear pieces as their interpreter talked quietly into a microphone at the front of the room.

....

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/25/magazine/afghanistan-war-baghlan-austin-miller.html

One of the key wild cards going on here, is that ISIS / Daesh still has a presence in the region and while the Taliban are trying to garner international recognition there are even more hard line elements where there has been massive blood shed in multiple provinces in Afghanistan between the two separate political-military formations.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-29009125

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/6/9/gunmen-kill-10-mine-clearing-workers-in-northern-afghanistan

[NOVA Green]

One item which I neglected to mention was the three provinces in Baghlan Province, which according to multiple sources are completely or partially under military control of Saleh & Massoud's rebel coalition:

Pol-e-Hesar (Pul Hisar)--- Estimated population 27k (2012).

Created from the former Andarab District... Tajik dominated. Poppy agricultural production appears to have overtaken Sugar Beets in recent years.

De Salah (Deh Salah)--- Estimated population (31k?)

Created from the former Andarab District ... Tajik dominated.

Banu District--- couldn't find a decent match... and haven't tried to check the GPS coordinates yet...

https://trip-suggest.com/afghanistan/baghlan/banu

[NOVA Green]

So The Washington Post is now providing some new information regarding the "Uprising" in Baghlan province:

Friday’s assault to retake the three districts of Puli Hisar, Dih Salah and Bano — which was confirmed by a former defense minister — came after Taliban fighters conducted house-to-house searches in the Andarab valley of the province, local commanders said.

As in most parts of Afghanistan, the Taliban had taken over the districts with little resistance in recent weeks. Shuja said that the local residents had told the Taliban fighters they can govern as long as they don’t enter their villages and homes.

So when the Taliban came to conduct searches, former Afghan military servicemen, along with civilians, decided to rise up. They drove out the Taliban in less than a day.

“Taliban fighters did not listen to us,” said Shuja, who had left his post in Helmand province when he heard that military units were surrendering en masse to the Taliban. “They came to our houses and harassed people. In our villages, people are very traditional and Muslim. There is no reason for Taliban to come and teach us about Islam.”

Abdul Rahman, 53, a former commander at Baghlan prison, said he mobilized hundreds of local forces and pushed the Taliban out. He said that the uprising left 30 Taliban fighters dead and 20 in custody — claims that could not be independently verified....

Friday’s uprising appears unconnected to another anti-Taliban force that emerged this week in the north: The National Resistance Front of Afghanistan, led by Ahmad Massoud, the son of the late Afghan mujahideen leader, Ahmad Shah Massoud.

Won't quote more from the article as a paid subscriber and trying to respect Atlas Forum rules regarding not quoting an excessive number of words in a post from a paid media outlet.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/anti-taliban-fighters-claim-victories-as-first-stirrings-of-armed-resistance-emerge/2021/08/20/24b433fc-01da-11ec-87e0-7e07bd9ce270_story.html

[NOVA Green]

Although most of Atlas is basically ignoring this thread, preferring to post about US Domestic political items, this is relevant within the Internal GD Board:

The Pentagon is moving toward compelling major American airlines to help transport tens of thousands of evacuees from Afghanistan, as the military struggles to meet the demand from Afghans seeking to leave Kabul, the capital, after the Taliban took control.

Military officials are poised to activate the Civil Reserve Air Fleet, or CRAF, created in 1952 in the wake of the Berlin Airlift, to provide several commercial airliners to bolster the American military operation to evacuate Afghans arriving at bases in the Middle East, Defense Department officials said on Saturday.

If the first stage of the activation is approved, nearly 20 airliners would join the more than 150 military cargo planes now involved in the evacuation efforts, military officials said. The potential use of civilian airliners was previously reported by The Wall Street Journal. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin must give final approval to the plan....

Final approval rests with Mr. Austin. For the evacuation mission, one of the largest the Pentagon has ever conducted, the military has expanded beyond its fleet of C-17s, the cargo plane of choice in hostile environments, to include giant C-5s and KC-10s, a refueling plane that can be configured to carry passengers.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/08/21/world/biden-taliban-afghanistan?type=styln-live-updates&label=afghanistan%20updates&index=0

[NOVA Green]

So The Washington Post is now providing some new information regarding the "Uprising" in Baghlan province:

Friday’s assault to retake the three districts of Puli Hisar, Dih Salah and Bano — which was confirmed by a former defense minister — came after Taliban fighters conducted house-to-house searches in the Andarab valley of the province, local commanders said.

As in most parts of Afghanistan, the Taliban had taken over the districts with little resistance in recent weeks. Shuja said that the local residents had told the Taliban fighters they can govern as long as they don’t enter their villages and homes.

So when the Taliban came to conduct searches, former Afghan military servicemen, along with civilians, decided to rise up. They drove out the Taliban in less than a day.

“Taliban fighters did not listen to us,” said Shuja, who had left his post in Helmand province when he heard that military units were surrendering en masse to the Taliban. “They came to our houses and harassed people. In our villages, people are very traditional and Muslim. There is no reason for Taliban to come and teach us about Islam.”

Abdul Rahman, 53, a former commander at Baghlan prison, said he mobilized hundreds of local forces and pushed the Taliban out. He said that the uprising left 30 Taliban fighters dead and 20 in custody — claims that could not be independently verified....

Friday’s uprising appears unconnected to another anti-Taliban force that emerged this week in the north: The National Resistance Front of Afghanistan, led by Ahmad Massoud, the son of the late Afghan mujahideen leader, Ahmad Shah Massoud.

Won't quote more from the article as a paid subscriber and trying to respect Atlas Forum rules regarding not quoting an excessive number of words in a post from a paid media outlet.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/anti-taliban-fighters-claim-victories-as-first-stirrings-of-armed-resistance-emerge/2021/08/20/24b433fc-01da-11ec-87e0-7e07bd9ce270_story.html

Slight update on the story from Baghlan per the NYT from earlier today:

Resistance fighters drive Taliban from 3 districts in the mountains north of Kabul.

The Taliban faced the first armed challenge from former Afghan soldiers and villagers in the mountains north of Kabul.

The Taliban faced the first armed challenge to their rule as former Afghan soldiers, aided by villagers, drove the militants out of three districts in the mountains north of Kabul, according to former Afghan officials.

The fighting took place in remote valleys on Friday, and details of the clashes were still trickling out. But video posted on social media showed fighters and civilians tearing down the white flag of the Taliban and raising the red, green and black Afghan national flag. In a tweet, the former acting defense minister, Bismillah Khan Mohammadi, called the fighters “popular resistance forces,”

....

The uprising on Friday took place to the north of the Panjshir Valley, a strategic sliver of territory where a handful of Afghan leaders were organizing a force to resist the Taliban. While former Afghan officials and reports from witnesses on social media suggested the uprising was local and spontaneous, one of the main leaders of the Panjshir resistance movement claimed on Saturday that “we are one.”

Amrullah Saleh, who was the country’s first vice president until this week, wrote in a text message that his forces and the fighters to the north were “under one command structure.”

....

Again leery of overquoting an article from a Newspaper which I have a subscription to, so any Forum members interested in reading the full article, either use one of your limited "Free Views" or possibly sign up for an NYT subscribing membership which has a significant discount for first time subscribers.

Either way---- key point here is that there is still a bit of confusion to what extent this was a spontaneous local uprising against Taliban overreach versus this report where Saleh indicates that these units are under one command structure.


https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/21/world/asia/resistance-fighters-taliban-afghanistan.html?action=click&module=RelatedLinks&pgtype=Article

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1429084913354121221

So for any casual tourists on this thread, the warnings do NOT involve Taliban activities, but rather concerns about the potential for ISIS / Daesh to attempt to carry out a spectacular terrorist assault against Foreign Nationals and allies attempting to leave the airport in Kabul.

IS threat forces US changes to evacuations at Kabul airport.

KABUL, Afghanistan (AP) — Potential Islamic State threats against Americans in Afghanistan are forcing the U.S. military to develop new ways to get evacuees to the airport in Kabul, a senior U.S. official said Saturday, adding a new complication to the already chaotic efforts to get people out of the country after its swift fall to the Taliban.

The official said that small groups of Americans and possibly other civilians will be given specific instructions on what to do, including movement to transit points where they can be gathered up by the military. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss military operations.

The changes come as the U.S. Embassy issued a new security warning Saturday telling citizens not to travel to the Kabul airport without individual instruction from a U.S. government representative. Officials declined to provide more specifics about the IS threat but described it as significant. They said there have beenno confirmed attacks as yet.

....

The Islamic State group — which has long declared a desire to attack America and U.S. interests abroad — has been active in Afghanistan for a number of years, carrying out waves of horrific attacks, mostly on the Shiite minority. The group has been repeatedly targeted by U.S. airstrikes in recent years, as well as Taliban attacks. But officials say fragments of the group are still active in Afghanistan, and the U.S. is concerned about it reconstituting in a larger way as the country comes under divisive Taliban rule.

....

https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-middle-east-evacuations-kabul-11e1590d8f9976fae13e7ee83a6b193a?utm_medium=AP&utm_source=Twitter&utm_campaign=SocialFlow

[NOVA Green]

Another story which hasn't yet been discussed are the initial attempts from the Taliban to create a "New Government".

The Taliban appeared closer to forming a government nearly a week after seizing the capital as one of their leaders, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, arrived in Kabul to begin talks with former President Hamid Karzai and other politicians.

“The negotiations are going on right now,” said Ahmadullah Waseq, deputy of the Taliban’s cultural affairs committee, who confirmed Mr. Baradar’s arrival in the capital.

For now, he said, Taliban officials are largely talking among themselves in preparation for the negotiations.

“Then we will talk with other parties to form an inclusive government acceptable to all Afghans,” Mr. Waseq added. “It is not clear when will we have a new government, but we are trying to announce it as soon as we can.”

Other Taliban leaders met on Saturday with Mr. Karzai and a second, prominent ex-Afghan official, Abdullah Abdullah, a former chief executive of the government, to discuss life under the Taliban.

....

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/08/21/world/biden-taliban-afghanistan?type=styln-live-updates&label=afghanistan%20updates&index=0#taliban-baradar-kabul-afghanistan

Obviously notable in this mix is the former President of Afghanistan Hamid Karzai....

[NOVA Green]

Some sources are indicating that the Taliban are sending a Battalion from Kunduz in an attempt to retake the three provinces in Baghlan province which recently fell.

As the situation in war-torn Afghanistan worsens, Afghan National Defence Security Forces (ANDSF) Commando Wazir Akbar Mohmand informed that the Taliban have sent a massive battalion from Kunduz to recapture Baghlan. While informing the Taliban force is superior in number and artillery, Wazir Akbar said that ANDSF will fight to the last man and make a stand there. Taking to Twitter, he wrote, "If I die, then I die as a free man and not a slave of Pakistan. ".

https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/rest-of-the-world-news/war-like-situation-arising-in-afghanistan-as-taliban-sends-battalion-to-recapture-baghlan.html

(Republican TV is a Right Wing Indian publication which has frequently been accused of publishing disinformation).

However, they do link to the Twitter account of Wazir Akbar Mohmand, who is an ANA Commando from the 215 Corp.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1429103702095253505

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1429485947679301636

Here is a Tweet from a Muslim Shirzad supposedly showing the Taliban convoy preparing to move towards the Panjshir:


https://twitter.com/MuslimShirzad/status/1429369766939185166?s=20

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/BBCYaldaHakim/status/1429523669701771264?s=19

300 seems to be quite a exaggerated number.

So one of the confusions which frequently occurs when attempting to deconstruct Afghan Provincial District names and locations, is that many districts have multiple names, and/or sometimes are referred to using their historical names, although they may have been merged over time into larger "administrative districts".

Bano District appears to overlap with Andarab District, which is part of the reason I was not able to locate it in my earlier posts.

Here is a Map of the Province, which shows the location of the three districts in which these reports of heavy clashes between Taliban and Anti-Taliban forces are occurring.



Here is a broad map which shows the Topographical features of Baghlan Province:



Now if we zoom in slightly closer, we see a bit of a look at the three districts which are now allegedly fully liberated from Taliban control. (I have simply focused on a few of the larger villages within these districts).



At this point, I will need to do a bit more research regarding the claim of (300) Taliban dead, however  this is an overwhelmingly Tajik District within Baghlan Province with an estimated population of some 120k ('04 numbers)!!!

The physical geography of the District makes it entirely plausible that there might well have been a variety of different cumulative Taliban casualties since Friday, plus ambushes of Taliban reinforcements coming from other areas within the province.....

What is clear is that the Anti-Taliban insurgents within the Province know their geography and are likely trying to obtain control of some of the North-South Highways which run down further to the West of the Province....

[NOVA Green]

Looks like Registani has joined the Armed Struggle against the Taliban:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saleh_Mohammad_Registani



https://twitter.com/MuslimShirzad/status/1429545055363215364?s=20

His previous experience as an Afghan Gvt attache to Moscow, might be significant, considering his past history.

Also, after Ghani conducted a major reorganization of the ANA in 2017, Registani who had previously resigned from his post is quoted talking about the corruption of the ANA and weakness and lack of respect for the Afghan GVT by troops on the front-lines.

General Nicholson’s request for more American troops came after the Afghan government again missed much of its winter goal to urgently overhaul the security ranks in order to put up a stronger fight against the Taliban, who overran large parts of the country last year and now threaten several cities.

The aging top layer of commanders and generals of the Afghan forces is widely seen as corrupt. And there are rising concerns that the overreporting of troop and police strength, allowing commanders to line their pockets with pay for nonexistent “ghost” soldiers, has partly obscured a deep problem with high attrition and desertion rates.

At the urging of the American military leadership, Mr. Ghani finally set up a board to monitor senior security appointments and institutionalize promotions based on merit and away from political patronage. But a couple months in, the board seems in disarray.

On Monday, the president’s office confirmed that Mr. Ghani had also replaced the commanders of four army corps, including the 209th. But officials and analysts said the appointments amounted more to an emergency reshuffle than any sign of effective change.

Saleh Mohammad Registani, an Afghan military analyst, said the forces still lacked a proper procedure to track the performance of officers. The senior appointments, he said, are made based on political considerations.

ToloNews, the Afghan television channel, reported that the commander of the 209th Corps, Gen. Mohmand Katawazi, had been listed for retirement months ago, but Mr. Ghani had extended his tenure to lead the biggest army corps in the north.

“You have a young force full of energy but led by a cadre that is old and not experienced in this kind of battle,” Mr. Registani said. “When you speak to soldiers, they say even battalion commanders don’t come to the battle, let alone the brigade or regiment leadership.”

Just an hour after news broke that he had been replaced as the commander of the 209th corps, General Katawazi was seen driving to the airport in Balkh Province in a black armored vehicle with an escort of army ranger trucks.

The hatred of the ranks for the leadership was clear when one of the police officers at the airport checkpoint was told the man in the black armored vehicle was the army corps commander who had just been replaced.

“Replaced?” the police officer shouted. “Ashraf Ghani should hang him from the blades of a moving helicopter!”

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/24/world/asia/afghanistan-taliban-defense-minister-resigns.html

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1429485947679301636

Here is a Tweet from a Muslim Shirzad supposedly showing the Taliban convoy preparing to move towards the Panjshir:


https://twitter.com/MuslimShirzad/status/1429369766939185166?s=20

Evidence is still out there as to if there were actually any combat activities between Taliban & Anti-Taliban forces heading North towards Panjshir.

Amrullah Saleh tweeted a few hours ago:

https://twitter.com/AmrullahSaleh2/status/1429526230815186948?s=20.

Then we had this other poster, but I have no idea who Qari Fasihud Din HafizuAllah is, and it was retweeted by Sumaira Khan, without context:


https://twitter.com/sumrkhan1/status/1429516486767427593?s=20

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile, a few hours before that RE: Panjshir....

Al Jazeera:

However, there was some uncertainty about whether the operation by Taliban forces had begun. A Taliban official told Reuters that an offensive had been launched on Panjshir. But an aide to Massoud said there were no signs that the column had actually entered the narrow pass into the valley and there had been no reports of fighting.

A short video showed a column of captured trucks with the white Taliban flag but still bearing their government markings moving along a highway.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/8/22/afghanistan-taliban-fighters-panjshir-valley

I suspect we will have additional info Tomorrow Morning PST, since it is currently it is 5:34 AM GMT on 8/23/21 in Afghanistan...

So maybe more info later Tonight in the US, but all is quiet on the Eastern Front for now....

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1429485947679301636

Here is a Tweet from a Muslim Shirzad supposedly showing the Taliban convoy preparing to move towards the Panjshir:


https://twitter.com/MuslimShirzad/status/1429369766939185166?s=20

Evidence is still out there as to if there were actually any combat activities between Taliban & Anti-Taliban forces heading North towards Panjshir.

Amrullah Saleh tweeted a few hours ago:

https://twitter.com/AmrullahSaleh2/status/1429526230815186948?s=20.

Then we had this other poster, but I have no idea who Qari Fasihud Din HafizuAllah is, and it was retweeted by Sumaira Khan, without context:


https://twitter.com/sumrkhan1/status/1429516486767427593?s=20

One the items which I neglected to mention from Saleh's post, involves the mention of the "Salang Highway".

Control of the Salang Highway is obviously a key element, but the Salang Pass is basically the only route from the North to Kabul...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salang_Tunnel

NPR post 2012:

The U.S. military says it's spending an extra $100 million a month on the war in Afghanistan since Pakistan closed its border to NATO supply convoys. Now, NATO is using a route thousands of miles longer through Russia and Central Asia.

That route passes through Afghanistan's perilous Salang Tunnel, 11,000 feet up in the Hindu Kush mountains. The Soviet-built tunnel was heralded as a marvel of engineering when completed in 1964.

Salang Tunnel
Credit: Kevin Uhrmacher/NPR

But years of war, neglect and geology have turned it into a dangerous bottleneck.

Driving through the Salang Tunnel is a pretty harrowing experience. Water pours in through holes in the wall. Whatever pavement might once have existed has long since deteriorated into an extremely rough, bumpy, dirt, and in some places, mud road.

The tunnel is barely wide enough for two lanes of traffic, and the uneven road surface means trucks often tilt over at precarious angles.....

"A year ago, it used to take us one to two nights" to make the approximately 265-mile journey from Uzbekistan to Kabul, he says.

A year ago, 1,000 to 2,000 vehicles passed through the tunnel each day. But since the Pakistanis stopped allowing NATO to use their roads last November, traffic through the Salang has soared. An estimated 10,000 to 20,000 vehicles are now passing through daily, and it's getting more complicated with the drawdown of U.S. forces.

....

On a recent day, a convoy of SUVs pulls up at the Salang Tunnel's northern entrance, and Afghan Gen. Mohammed Rajab stepped out. He's been the chief of maintenance for the Salang highway for 10 years. He looked at the crumbling concrete on the opening jutting out from a snowcapped mountain peak. He's worried about a disaster — like the 1982 fuel truck fire that killed hundreds of Soviet troops and Afghans.

https://www.npr.org/2012/06/24/155302587/afghan-tunnel-decrepit-dangerous-yet-indispensible

Washington Post- 2018:

SALANG PASS, Afghanistan — The road that traverses this lofty mountain pass is the only direct route between Kabul and Afghanistan's northern provinces. Since the age of Alexander the Great, it also has been the main trade route between South and Central Asia.

Crossing it in 2018 will leave you both shaken and stirred. Shaken because despite hundreds of millions of dollars spent over decades on improvements, most of the road is now little more than a dirt track. And stirred because despite the bone-rattling journey, the sight of the snowy peaks of the Hindu Kush is breathtakingly beautiful. 

But the road can also leave you angry, especially if you've been driving it week in and week out for decades, like Sayid, a trucker who like many Afghans uses just one name.

"Nothing has changed in all these years," he said, while tucking a blanket around his old Russian-made truck's engine to protect it from the subzero cold at the top of the pass.
 "If anything, it has gotten worse."

Sayid is accustomed to abysmal roads, as he is to rampant corruption in his country — the latter often being the invisible force behind the former. Nowadays, his patience is running thin. When Sayid hears of President Ashraf Ghani's plans to transform Afghanistan into a transit point for regional trade, he scoffs.

Foreign donors have poured billions of dollars into road-building here since the toppling of the Taliban in 2001. But much of that money has gone to roads of strategic importance for the ongoing Western military intervention. Some of Afghanistan's most economically vital roads are in utter disrepair.

...

Back in Kabul, Deputy Minister Abdul Rahman Salahi's first answer is terrain, climate and altitude. "The Russians were good at this, and we are not," he said. "We are still learning."

But when asked why, nearly 60 years after the Russians began building the Salang road and tunnel, those attempts at improvement haven't borne fruit, Salahi offered another explanation.

"Corruption is undeniable. Construction contracts are granted, then they get subcontracted and maybe even sub-sub-contracted, and at each stage of transfer, a cut of the money is taken," Salahi said.

...

Wall Street Journal: 2014

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-balks-at-bills-for-afghanistans-treacherous-salang-tunnel-1412280908

Needless to say it is not implausible that Anti-Taliban formations might be able easily sever the main North-South Highway link through Salang, and Massoud is not making an idle threat....

[NOVA Green]

Baghlan Province Update:

The Taliban claim to have retaken control of the (3) provinces in Baghlan Province:

The Taliban were in position near the Panjshir valley and had retaken three districts in northern Afghanistan that fell to local militia groups last week, a spokesman said on Monday, though there were no confirmed reports of further fighting.

The districts of Bano, Deh Saleh, Pul e-Hesar in the northern province of Baghlan were taken by local militia groups last week in one of the first signs of armed resistance to the Taliban since their seizure of the capital Kabul on Aug. 15.

By Monday, Taliban forces had cleared the districts and were established in Badakhshan, Takhar and Andarab near the Panjshir valley, according to the Twitter account of spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid....

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taliban-say-they-have-retaken-three-northern-districts-seized-by-afghan-militias-2021-08-23/

This appears to be plausible based upon information from an individual who is actively monitoring social media accounts from both Taliban and Anti-Taliban armed formations.

I'm not going to link to many of his earlier Tweets from the past week, but looks like large convoys of TB reinforcements arrived in Andarab District on the evening of 8/21 to find the Militias gone.

Estimated 3-6k Taliban fighters have retaken all areas including De-E-Salah with Andarabi militiamen retreating towards Panjshir.

https://twitter.com/Natsecjeff/status/1429385732964208643?s=20

https://twitter.com/Natsecjeff/status/1429388116092235784?s=20

https://twitter.com/Natsecjeff/status/1429417607875203075?s=20

https://twitter.com/Natsecjeff/status/1429701947871870980?s=20