Afghan government collapse.

[NOVA Green]

So Ben just updated his geo-location map of proven Taliban positions a bit less than an hour ago of known Taliban geo-locations from their social media posts, which were effective as of Yesterday, so naturally would not reflect today's apparently quite dramatic developments.

He uses a European data-stamp (Day-Month-Yr) for anyone who wants to match against other reports.

As we can see the only real data is coming from the Southern Front (Or whatever might be currently left of it), but in general TB outlets have been much more transparent and better with providing us with actual real information on this sorts of stuff than Pro-NRF outlets.

By that I mean they don't appear to mind posting their military positions to SM in a timely fashion, making it a bit easier to work backwards 24 hours.... 

Also, there is the Taliban "War Correspondent Dude", who has been constantly uploading videos of himself to Twitter etc.

Didn't add him as someone I am following, so don't have it at my fingertips at the moment, but I was going back through when I got up today, and the info he was posting / contributing to, looked remarkably like more confirmed reports that came later from actual developments on the Southern Front. (Don't speak Dari or Pashto, not sure which language he was speaking in, but the twitter site could be translated into English when it came to updates).

https://twitter.com/hengenahm/status/1434233817909301254?s=20

Side Note: I do like the Zoom Earth app he uses, and although I didn't post it previously apparently all sorts of formerly "limited data" or "blended" areas have for some reason been recently updated, making it a bit easier for geo-mapping.

Another note, the TB seem to have had much better Intel regarding location of enemy forces than the NRF, so hopefully that was HumINT and not Satellite data shared by any external parties and Governments in exchange for their own immediate foreign policy interests.

[NOVA Green]

Just in case anybody on Atlas is gullible to believe whatever random items show up on social media, reports of any Pakistan Military involvement in support and coordination with the Taliban / NRF War, such as "Pakistani Jets bombing NRF positions", and various other similar claims, SSG Coordinating activities, Pakistani "Spy Chief" shows up in Kabul to coordinate activities against the NRF, we have to remember that the vast majority of the Social Media sites posting such stories in the past have been completely debunked, fact-checked, etc....

Saleh was not a great Intel Chief under Ghani, and we have seen all sorts of crazy "Baghdad Bob" style statements from most pro-NRF sources, and although various Taliban Social Media sites have made all sorts of factually inaccurate statements as well, at least in many cases they are declaring "intentions" prior to "actions" which were later confirmed.

In general, I do strongly believe that Saleh did a grave disservice to the people of Panjshir, when he convinced the Senior NRF Leadership team and Massoud Jr. , that he could handle the international relations so long as Massoud & Company could stall for time, knowing that clashes could potentially be brought under control before they got out of hand.

Meanwhile we have some random Twitter Dude with a name Col Rahman Rahmani, who is allegedly a former Afghan Air Force Pilot.

Now his name is interesting, since it also happens to also be that of a who is the current de-jure Speaker of Afghanistan's House of the People (Wolesi Jirga, the House of Representatives), holding the office since June 2019, until his flight from Afghanistan in 2021. He has been a member of the Wolesi Jirga since 2010.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mir_Rahman_Rahmani

Now---- not going to link to the guys Twitter feeds, but he's one of those people (who assuming it's not the actual guy himself), but is posting random stuff about Pakistani Drone Attacks, Panjshiri rebel commanders still being alive.

what I AM saying is that we can, will, and should expect to see all sorts of disinformation appear, especially now that the Taliban have de facto control over Afghanistan, with complex webs of alliances and non-alliances throughout the region.

Afghanistan and Kabul will likely be for the next 10-20 years to come one of those crazy melting-pot scenes like Berlin & Vienna shortly after WW II.

Spy-chiefs and Intel-chiefs from all neighboring States (As well as further beyond), will mix and mingle from Herat in the West, Mazar-e-Sharif in the North, Jalalabad in the East, Kandahar in the far South-east, not to mention the capitol itself.

What's going on in Panjshir / Taliban has virtually nothing to do with Kashmir and Indian-Pakistani relations, which would be more of your ISKP support for their "sister" / "brother" affiliate in India.

Pakistan is just one of many neighbors to Afghanistan, and they and many of their merchant class, would be more than happy to exchange a regional peace and stability, versus a continuation of the Panjshir War", since the Port of Karachi > Kabul allows a much easier transportation route than all of the alternatives (Including the Western route from Iran).

Anyways---- just needed to take a brief brake from doing my OCD "searching for updates" thing, to put it out there in case anyone is really believing that the "Pakistani Special Forces" attacked Saleh's House, or so much other of the crap floating around on SM.

[NOVA Green]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-58455959

A US lawmaker has accused the Taliban of stopping Afghans and Americans from leaving Afghanistan via Mazar-i-Sharif International Airport.

Republican House member Michael McCaul said on Sunday that planes had been trying to leave the airport "for the last couple of days".

An NGO confirmed to the BBC that it had people waiting to board one of the flights.

The Taliban has denied the claims, labelling them as propaganda.

Although I can't reliably speak to the story in question (there are other articles out there on that), it does appear that commercial flights out of Mazar-e-Sharif were shut for a period on 9/3/21 based upon satellite data:

https://twitter.com/trbrtc/status/1434604577526067202?s=20

[NOVA Green]

Looks to be official now....

TB Flag flying over the Panjshir Capitol...

https://twitter.com/Natsecjeff/status/1434733544593575940?s=20

[NOVA Green]

So Ryan O' Farrell has done some older geo-location work from Baghlan Province, and it appears as though the anti-Taliban militias only had control for about 2-3 days after kicking out the initial Taliban presence.

If you click on each of the four photos there are dates and notes from various social media posts.

It appears as though once again pro-Taliban sources were much more accurate than pro-NRF accounts.

Also, including another Tweet from Ryan with maps noting the locations of Taliban advances on the Southern Front.

https://twitter.com/ryanmofarrell/status/1434774198417870849?s=20

https://twitter.com/ryanmofarrell/status/1434730195701874690?s=20

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile, pretty solid read from the WP out today on Taliban & Pakistani relations in the post de-facto Taliban control of Afghanistan as of recently.

Obviously there is a lot more to this article than the small excerpts quoted (And I mainly chose to focus on a few items regarding the TTP [Pakistani Taliban] ), so well worth a read and paying a few bucks a month for a subscription to enjoy the wide array of quality content they offer:

After jubilation, Pakistan faces dilemma as Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan inspires religious militants

In the two weeks since Kabul fell to the Taliban on Aug. 15, Pakistan’s typically fractious political voices joined in something rare: unison.

Imran Khan, Pakistan’s prime minister, applauded Afghans for tearing free of the “shackles of slavery.” His political opponents, including leaders of Islamist parties, congratulated the Taliban for its “historic victory” over American imperialism. A half-dozen retired Pakistani army generals publicly celebrated. So did extremist groups that are sworn enemies of Pakistan’s generals and government.

But beneath the widespread jubilation, Pakistan is beginning to reckon with the destabilizing effects washing across the Afghan border. The Taliban’s dramatic victory not only has galvanized terrorist groups waging a bloody insurgency inside Pakistan, but it has also buoyed hard-line religious parties that seek to reshape Pakistan in a more fundamentalist Islamist image.

....

Pakistani officials say their most immediate concern is the resurgence of a coalition of militant groups known as Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, or the Pakistani Taliban, which is allied with the Afghan Taliban and has conducted nearly 1,800 attacks on Pakistani state and civilian targets in the past decade. After hailing the Taliban’s “blessed victory” in Afghanistan, the TTP claimed another attack last week in which gunmen crossed from Afghanistan and killed two soldiers in northern Pakistan’s tribal region.

A U.N. Security Council report in July estimated the TTP had 6,000 trained fighters on the Afghan side of the border. A June report said the Taliban and TTP have maintained their relationship. As it swept across Afghanistan last month, the Taliban released hundred of militants, including senior TTP leaders, from prisons.

....

A former high-ranking TTP commander, who spoke by messaging app on the condition of anonymity, said Pakistan has recently asked the Taliban to force TTP fighters to surrender their arms in exchange for amnesty.

The Taliban responded that it would not hand over TTP members but would pressure them to hold peace talks with the Pakistani government, the former TTP leader said, adding that the Taliban’s leverage was limited. “If the Afghan Taliban tried to force the TTP, then some of its commanders can join [Islamic State-Khorasan],” he said, referring to a rival militant group that claimed a bombing outside the Kabul airport that killed more than 170 people.

....

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/09/05/pakistan-taliban-afghanistan/

[NOVA Green]

Good article today from the Wall Street Journal on the legacy of failed US funded infrastructure projects in Afghanistan.

Again well worth a subscription since their news pages are usually pretty solid, unlike the crap they post on the Editorial and Op-Ed pages so so often.

Don't want to risk overquoting, but it is a really long article and breaks down some of the standout examples such as the G222 planes ($549 Million), Kabul Luxury Hotels & Apts across the street from the US embassy ($85 Million), vehicle scanners, Cashmere goat farm and laboratory, Afghan National Police compound, Khost City electric power system, etc...)

U.S. Left Afghanistan Littered With Decaying Factories, Schools, Offices

Watchdog finds government wasted at least $2.4 billion on assets that were unused, destroyed or poorly maintained

The Afghan countryside is littered with abandoned and decaying power plants, prisons, schools, factories, office buildings and military bases, according to a watchdog agency, the legacy of the U.S.’s 20-year effort to fund the establishment of a modern Afghan state that could provide security and basic services for its citizens.

A range of U.S. government agencies poured an estimated $145 billion into construction and infrastructure projects, equipment for the Afghan security forces, humanitarian aid, counternarcotics programs and other spending, according to the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, or Sigar.

Across the country, local Afghan partners often lacked the expertise and resources to maintain the buildings and equipment after they were handed over. In many cases, the U.S. government built things the Afghans didn’t want or need, according to Sigar.

Some facilities and equipment were damaged in fighting. In other cases, whether through malfeasance or incompetence, American, Afghan and international contractors never delivered what they were paid for, Sigar’s reports show.

.....

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-left-afghanistan-littered-with-decaying-factories-schools-offices-11630933200

[NOVA Green]

Sad news, though it may be possible that there will be further guerrilla activity in the more remote regions of Panjshir.

Note that there's no necessary contradiction between 'we are in control of the valley' and 'the struggle continues': from the Taliban's present perspective what matters is occupying the towns along the valley floor and being able to say that, having done so, that they 'control' every district. From the perspective of the valley's defenders it's a little different. It's easy to overlook, but the place is huge and the main valley is only a small proportion of the land area.

I have hesitated to post here about the prospects of rural guerrilla warfare within Afghanistan for multiple reasons.

1.) I am deeply saddened that Massoud Jr. appears to have taken the advice of Saleh, and triggering what was an unnecessary war in Panjshir.

2.) The Taliban and NRF intermediaries met about two weeks ago in Charikar, Afghanistan.

From various reports, both the Tribal Elders of Panjshir and the Taliban representatives were virtually on broad agreement on most items, including the continued territorial autonomy of Panjshir (Just like under Karzai / Ghani), retention of any ANA weapons which had migrated to the province, allegedly participation in a broader "Afghan Gvt", etc...

Could be wrong, but one of the main "non-negotiables" of the Taliban involved the status of Saleh, who they considered to be a "war criminal" because of the various dirty deeds committed by the elite Afghan CIA backed formations.

3.) It appears that Saleh led the Panjshiri resistance into a war against the Taliban, by first triggering "Militia Assaults" in Baghlan Province, and then tried to spin this to the International Community to obtain arms and political support, leveraging his "gravitas", international connections, social media prowess, etc...

4.) This strategy was a colossal failure.

It directly led to a massive clash, where a bunch of seasoned Jamiat-e Islami military commanders lost their lives during the (successful) Taliban offensive to take the Valley floors and population centers within the past few days.

That being said....

Sure it is not inconceivable that NRF factions and localized militia might be able to conduct sporadic assaults and guerrilla war activities against the TB, but it is quite a bit different than before (Even JI opposition to Taliban formations in '94-'01).

The logistical pipeline of weapons and ammo to whatever remains of the resistance forces is going to become much more difficult, now that the TB had a casus belli in order to "legitimately" move against the rebel formations, international communities who did not back up the Panjshir Rebels, plus likely looking weak when it comes to any potential authenticity as being able to "protect the Ethnic Tajiks against the Taliban".

Not disputing that there might be a few small bands of guerrillas roaming around the Hindu-Kush Mountains waging sporadic guerrilla warfare against TB formations, but really would have been much better to bide time, and allow for the people of Afghanistan to take a look at what's going down vs starting yet another war, where so many families have lost both a son fighting for the Taliban and another son fighting for the ANA....

It's over and regardless of how Saleh & Co tried to spin it, I'm having a difficult time envisioning a successful rural based guerrilla war in Afghanistan at this time against the Taliban.

[NOVA Green]

So my my good buddy Ryan O'Farrell has just recently updated some geo-location data from Panjshir.

In case there are any doubts, it appears that the Taliban control the entire Panjshir Valley from Khenj in the NE heading SW to Bazarak.

Sure no idea what guerrilla formations might be out in the Mountains and Hills, but seriously if TB convoys feel safe driving from the NE portion of the Highway towards the Capitol of the Province, tells you something...

https://twitter.com/ryanmofarrell/status/1435058706908160002?s=20

[NOVA Green]

Here another Tweet from my Irish-American friend, regarding the "flanking maneuver", which allowed the Taliban to Militarily conquer the Southern Entrance to the Panjshir Valley...

The fourth photo with GPS Geographical Images and Notes, perhaps is the best to click on, when attempting to review from a "military strategic angle".

Again, no hay on the ground from my perspective, but def looks like the TB fighters did a really good job overall, and not just on a tactical level.

https://twitter.com/ryanmofarrell/status/1435003485918011393?s=20

And another...

https://twitter.com/ryanmofarrell/status/1434977255059566600

[NOVA Green]

Now regardless of the various atrocities, human rights abuses, extremely backward perspectives regarding the role of women in the public sphere of the Taliban Regime (1994-2001), we are still talking about a country where 50%+ of the population are Women.

The New Yorker Magazine has an interesting article on the subject about how Women in Rural Afghanistan started to turn against the "Occupiers" and support the Taliban vs the Afghan GVMT.

The Other Afghan Women

[size=12pt]In the countryside, the endless killing of civilians turned women against the occupiers who claimed to be helping them.[/size]

Late one afternoon this past August, Shakira heard banging on her front gate. In the Sangin Valley, which is in Helmand Province, in southern Afghanistan, women must not be seen by men who aren’t related to them, and so her nineteen-year-old son, Ahmed, went to the gate. Outside were two men in bandoliers and black turbans, carrying rifles. They were members of the Taliban, who were waging an offensive to wrest the countryside back from the Afghan National Army. One of the men warned, “If you don’t leave immediately, everyone is going to die.”

Shakira, who is in her early forties, corralled her family: her husband, an opium merchant, who was fast asleep, having succumbed to the temptations of his product, and her eight children, including her oldest, twenty-year-old Nilofar—as old as the war itself—whom Shakira called her “deputy,” because she helped care for the younger ones. The family crossed an old footbridge spanning a canal, then snaked their way through reeds and irregular plots of beans and onions, past dark and vacant houses. Their neighbors had been warned, too, and, except for wandering chickens and orphaned cattle, the village was empty.

...

The pounding of artillery filled the air, announcing the start of a Taliban assault on an Afghan Army outpost. Shakira balanced her youngest child, a two-year-old daughter, on her hip as the sky flashed and thundered. By nightfall, they had come upon the valley’s central market. The corrugated-iron storefronts had largely been destroyed during the war. Shakira found a one-room shop with an intact roof, and her family settled in for the night. For the children, she produced a set of cloth dolls—one of a number of distractions that she’d cultivated during the years of fleeing battle. As she held the figures in the light of a match, the earth shook.

....

This summer, I travelled to rural Afghanistan to meet women who were already living under the Taliban, to listen to what they thought about this looming dilemma. More than seventy per cent of Afghans do not live in cities, and in the past decade the insurgent group had swallowed large swaths of the countryside. Unlike in relatively liberal Kabul, visiting women in these hinterlands is not easy: even without Taliban rule, women traditionally do not speak to unrelated men. Public and private worlds are sharply divided, and when a woman leaves her home she maintains a cocoon of seclusion through the burqa, which predates the Taliban by centuries. Girls essentially disappear into their homes at puberty, emerging only as grandmothers, if ever. It was through grandmothers—finding each by referral, and speaking to many without seeing their faces—that I was able to meet dozens of women, of all ages. Many were living in desert tents or hollowed-out storefronts, like Shakira; when the Taliban came across her family hiding at the market, the fighters advised them and others not to return home until someone could sweep for mines. I first encountered her in a safe house in Helmand. “I’ve never met a foreigner before,” she said shyly. “Well, a foreigner without a gun.”

....

One day, an announcer on the radio said that there had been an attack in America. Suddenly, there was talk that soldiers from the richest country on earth were coming to overthrow the Taliban. For the first time in years, Shakira’s heart stirred with hope.

One night in 2003, Shakira was jolted awake by the voices of strange men. She rushed to cover herself. When she ran to the living room, she saw, with panic, the muzzles of rifles being pointed at her. The men were larger than she’d ever seen, and they were in uniform. These are the Americans, she realized, in awe. Some Afghans were with them, scrawny men with Kalashnikovs and checkered scarves. A man with an enormous beard was barking orders: Amir Dado.

...

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/09/13/the-other-afghan-women

[NOVA Green]

Really good read for anybody actually interested on Atlas / Talk Elections:

Meanwhile all of the American Atlas blowhards still continue to regurgitate MSM, "Opinion Pieces" from US Republican outlets, etc, and generally are just full of s**t 90% of the time.

Hopefully a few of them might move over from the USGD "Sewers" and actually spend some hours reading stuff rather than random sound bites and political posturing...

https://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/amp/ncna1278163?__twitter_impression=true

[NOVA Green]

So... here's an interesting back-story regarding the Younger Brother of Massoud Sr.  which I was not aware of previously, but as Karzai's VP absconded with tons of cash from Afghanistan.

This is from a seasoned reporter for The Times (UK), who seems like he knows his s**t.

https://twitter.com/RichardJSpencer/status/1434759060482572292?s=20

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ahmad_Zia_Massoud

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile, alleged political conflicts between Iran and Pakistan following the Taliban Cabinet Position announcements.

This follows only a few days after the IRI "condemned" Pakistan for assaulting "Panjshir".

Wouldn't be hard for Iran to "turn up the heat" a notch to pressure the new TB GVMT, and although likely much of this posing, reality is that the new TB GVMT is heavily dependent upon Iranian Oil flowing through to keep the Power Plants running, especially with only so much in the way of Hydro-resources.

Thing is with the Taliban 2.0, they are trying to create a sort of "interfaith" religious scholar council, but gonna be pretty hard to do that if the whole Sunni-Shiite rivalries start creating not only serious issues within Afghanistan, but also potentially even spreading into Pakistan.

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile, alleged political conflicts between Iran and Pakistan following the Taliban Cabinet Position announcements.

This follows only a few days after the IRI "condemned" Pakistan for assaulting "Panjshir".

Wouldn't be hard for Iran to "turn up the heat" a notch to pressure the new TB GVMT, and although likely much of this posing, reality is that the new TB GVMT is heavily dependent upon Iranian Oil flowing through to keep the Power Plants running, especially with only so much in the way of Hydro-resources.

Thing is with the Taliban 2.0, they are trying to create a sort of "interfaith" religious scholar council, but gonna be pretty hard to do that if the whole Sunni-Shiite rivalries start creating not only serious issues within Afghanistan, but also potentially even spreading into Pakistan.

More reason why we should have signed a new deal with Iran mere days into Biden’s presidency.

Believe I have been consistent in my perspective that the Bush Jr Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan only enhanced the reactionary forces within Iran.

The deliberate destruction of the Baathist Regime in Iraq, created a massive destabilization of the entire region, not to mention significant shifts within the more extremist wings of the armed military-political formations of various actors, which fundamentally was "blowback" from the dayz of Ronald Reagan and the entire US National Security Establishment that supported, funded, and sub-contracted international terrorism as part of a proxy war against the Soviet Union.

It is amazing the paucity of knowledge and history that the average Atlas Poster has, when it actually comes to fundamental global transformative events.

Not talking about you man--- just blowing off a bit of steam ---

Region complex and South Asia is obviously a bit different than the traditional def of the Middle East, but at least here I believe that people will likely understand a bit more, vs having to "dumb it down in the workplace".   

Like the direction you are exploring and do not pretend to be an expert in any way shape or form, plus forgot so much of my college studies from many years back in the dayz....

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile, alleged political conflicts between Iran and Pakistan following the Taliban Cabinet Position announcements.

This follows only a few days after the IRI "condemned" Pakistan for assaulting "Panjshir".

Wouldn't be hard for Iran to "turn up the heat" a notch to pressure the new TB GVMT, and although likely much of this posing, reality is that the new TB GVMT is heavily dependent upon Iranian Oil flowing through to keep the Power Plants running, especially with only so much in the way of Hydro-resources.

Thing is with the Taliban 2.0, they are trying to create a sort of "interfaith" religious scholar council, but gonna be pretty hard to do that if the whole Sunni-Shiite rivalries start creating not only serious issues within Afghanistan, but also potentially even spreading into Pakistan.

Bit obscure but Iran is continuing to hit Pakistan on what appear to be complete fake news stories regarding Pakistani Military Forces supporting the TB to take out the Panjshiri resistance.

https://twitter.com/Natsecjeff/status/1435720658491748353?s=20

https://twitter.com/Natsecjeff/status/1435535198058389505?s=20

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile... since the US Population is acting just like the Russian Population after mutually failed adventures in Afghanistan, here is yet another article regarding some of the context behind the deterioration of Iranian GVMT- Taliban....

This naturally comes out within the context of the Taliban Cabinet announcements, as well as the "Panjshiri situation", which I had previously mention the other day, where the IRI was practically accusing the TB of direct assaults on Panjshiri Rebel formations....

Nobody cares on USGD... hence just keeping this on the IGD thread, so hopefully the Trolls don't jump into the mix from the other side.   

https://www.trtworld.com/magazine/after-a-short-honeymoon-are-iran-taliban-relations-deteriorating-49838

[NOVA Green]

Haven't posted many recent updates from Panjshir for a couple days for multiple reasons:

1.) The shift from more of "traditional" military conflict has now shifted to a what is essentially a "small scale" guerrilla warfare style of tactics, where what is likely a relatively small number of actual armed Anti-TB combatants runs in the 100s and not the 1000s.

2.) TB has shifted to more a traditional anti "rural insurgency" strategy, while meanwhile many Internally Displaced People (IDP's) are left out of the areas of combat activity, while negotiating with former NRF political-military opponents for "safe passage" for civilians within the combat areas within Panjshir.

3.) It does appear that the TB did actually have some level of support within Panjshir itself, which is where they obtained a significant amount of HumINT, as well as certain collaborators, who did not agree with the strategy to take up an offensive armed struggle against the TB.

4.) Data is extremely lacking and what little we have from the NRF outlets generally tends to be the same BS and propaganda, which was much less accurate tbh than Pro-TB sources.

Meanwhile, the TB have one of their top military commanders who basically defeated ISKP for the most part running point in Panjshir.

https://twitter.com/Natsecjeff/status/1436449904595963904?s=20

5.) The evidence is also pretty clear that the "village militias" were not really interested in fighting against the TB, as evidenced by a significant # of military desertions.

This is not to say that the Panjishiris and Ethnic Tajiks in much larger numbers might join the armed struggle against the Taliban Regime in the future, but what it does indicate is that really like most Afghanis the population is tired of war and political corruption and willing to look towards the future....

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile early reports of a massive crackdown against the Salafist movement in Afghanistan:

https://twitter.com/abdsayedd/status/1436325546808459267?s=20

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salafi_movement

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1437692332774621189

Although I know you just embedded a tweet from someone else, the "movement of dead people" caught my eye.

Without dropping any particular names, there have been multiple figures on both sides of the Afghan Civil War who rematerialize out of nowhere!

I am extremely skeptical these days regarding any reports of deaths of well known figures within Afghanistan, especially because of all the "Black Ops" and "angling" of all of the other vultures in the neighborhood.

[NOVA Green]

Taliban purge incoming?

Afghanistan: Taliban leaders in bust-up at presidential palace, sources say

A major row broke out between leaders of the Taliban just days after they set up a new government in Afghanistan, senior Taliban officials told the BBC.

Supporters of two rival factions reportedly brawled at the presidential palace in the capital Kabul.

The argument appeared to centre on who did the most to secure victory over the US, and how power was divided up in the new cabinet.

The Taliban have officially denied the reports.

The group seized control of Afghanistan last month, and have since declared the country an "Islamic Emirate". Their new interim cabinet is entirely male and made up of senior Taliban figures, some of whom are notorious for attacks on US forces over the past two decades.

The dispute came to light after a Taliban co-founder, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, disappeared from view for several days.

...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-58560923

Well, we do know that members of the TB "Leadership" who supported a greater degree of engagement with Iran were effectively side-lined in the TB Cabinet postings and other Senior Leadership positions.

TB leaders, including Haqqani, are obviously concerned about how these rumors will impact their supporters and followers, and are attempting to do domestic PR damage control on this story.

Baradar also had an interview with RTE, I believe earlier today, but don't believe the full video has yet been posted, and I haven't seen a translation yet of the clips which have been released.

[NOVA Green]

There's something about this story - leaking to journalists to try to undermine your internal opponents - that reinforces this, awful, awful feeling that I've been having for a while, namely that Taliban II: Electric Boogaloo is likely to be an extremely dark parody of modern political life...

However this go around of "TB 2.0" practically every Talib has a Smartphone, Social Media is widespread (Although my understanding is that Facebook is more popular in AFGH than Twitter), multiple domestic TV stations, as well as much greater reach of Satellite TV, etc....

So yeah--- still does feel a bit different from Taliban 1.0 when trying to understand or parse TB statements and actions always felt like it was a bit in the shadows.

I'm sure some academics are already updating their future book releases to cover how Media played (Including Social Media) a significant role both in the lead up to the fall of the Afghani regime, as well as in the subsequent aftermath.

[NOVA Green]

Interesting article which I just read for the first time today on a "secret" Taliban drone unit which helped them win the War against the Afghani GVT post Trump-Taliban Peace Deal.

Won't bother quoting, but it does help answer some of my questions about how the TB were so effective in identifying Panjshiri military locations without external Satellite Intel data, despite (As I believe I previously posted a couple weeks back they also had at least some local HumINT and supporters within the Valley as well).

Worth a read and shouldn't take more than 5-10 minutes of your life.

https://newlinesmag.com/reportage/the-drone-unit-that-helped-the-taliban-win-the-war/

[NOVA Green]

A new story from the AP on the "rifts" between Taliban leadership:

Friction among Taliban pragmatists, hard-liners intensifies

KABUL, Afghanistan (AP) — Friction between pragmatists and ideologues in the Taliban leadership has intensified since the group formed a hard-line Cabinet last week that is more in line with their harsh rule in the 1990s than their recent promises of inclusiveness, said two Afghans familiar with the power struggle.

The wrangling has taken place behind the scenes, but rumors quickly began circulating about a recent violent confrontation between the two camps at the presidential palace, including claims that the leader of the pragmatic faction, Abdul Ghani Baradar, was killed.

The rumors reached such intensity that an audio recording and handwritten statement, both purportedly by Baradar himself, denied that he had been killed. Then on Wednesday, Baradar appeared in an interview with the country’s national TV.

....

The two Afghans familiar with the power struggle also spoke on condition of anonymity to protect the confidentiality of those who shared their discontent over the Cabinet lineup. They said one Cabinet minister toyed with refusing his post, angered by the all-Taliban government that shunned the country’s ethnic and religious minorities.

...

Analysts say the friction may not amount to a serious threat to the Taliban — for now.

“We’ve seen over the years that despite disputes, the Taliban largely remains a cohesive institution and that major decisions don’t get serious pushback after the fact,” said Michael Kugelman, Asia program deputy director at the Washington-based Wilson Center.

....

https://apnews.com/article/middle-east-afghanistan-kabul-taliban-abdul-ghani-baradar-56455c9c2e145c3e5bf57d697d968834

[NOVA Green]

Interesting...

Foreign Policy Magazine report from today....


https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/16/us-un-taliban-travel-ban-talks/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter