2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[NOVA Green]

Biden flipped Talbot county, MD today.

It was Trump +10 in 2016.

Simply amazing.

https://conservapedia.com/United_States_presidential_election,_2020

What the f*** did I just force myself to read?

Not to go too far off-topic, but on my Mothers Grandparents side we have both Talbots and Townsends in our family tree that not only pre-date the Civil War, but also go back directly to family trees of land deeded by the Crown (King of England) to some of the earlier settlers...

German Catholics in the Mid-Atlantic region coming back home...

[NOVA Green]

Alaska snuck in an update Yesterday:

Total Cumulative Numbers:

Trump: 181,645     (53.0%)  n/c      +10.8% Trump
Biden:  144,498     (42.2%)  n/c
Misc:     12,902      ( 3.8%)  n/c
Total:    339,045

Latest Batch:

Trump:     + 2,581
Biden:      + 1,929




I checked the Anchorage numbers, and they do not appear to have moved since the 11/13/20 PM Update, and it looks like Biden is still currently up +1.5k Votes in Anchorage (+1.0% DEM).

Unfortunately I haven't been tracking in detail where the new batches are coming from, so cannot provide greater context yet in terms of Fairbanks, MatSU, Rural Native Alaska, Panhandle, etc....

[NOVA Green]

Alaska is about to fall into single digits

Trump 52.89%
Biden 42.74%

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1328414218354356224

Biden is now also leading by +1.7k votes in Anchorage!

Here is the update posted on another thread.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=414208.msg7776025#msg7776025

[NOVA Green]

Why does Atlas allow fake news to invade our space?

[NOVA Green]

Electoral Vote tracker, based on official/certified states + DC

9/51:

54 Trump
10 Biden

November 5th
Delaware

November 6th
New Hampshire

November 10th
Oklahoma
South Dakota
Vermont

November 11th
South Carolina
Wyoming

November 12th
North Dakota

November 17th
Florida

November 18th
Arkansas
Idaho
Massachusetts

November 19th
Louisiana

November 20th
Georgia

November 23rd
Hawaii
Kentucky
Maine
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Tennessee
Utah

November 24th
District of Columbia
Indiana
Minnesota
New Mexico
North Carolina
Ohio

November 25th
Alabama
Alaska

November 30th
Arizona
Colorado
Iowa
Montana
Nebraska

December 1st
Kansas
Nevada
Wisconsin

December 3rd
Connecticut
Oregon
Texas
Washington
West Virginia

December 4th
Illinois
Mississippi

December 7th
New York

December 8th
Maryland
Missouri
New Jersey

December 11th
California

December 14th
Electoral College votes

Unknown dates
Rhode Island (results last updated Nov. 13, not yet official)
Virginia (originally planned for Nov. 16, but pushed back because of incomplete results)

Thanks Tender!   You about early Morning Time in Europe (Wish I was back there.     )

Will be looking at grabbing some final precinct results from the latest updates!!!

[NOVA Green]

Alaska Update- 11/17/20 PM:

Trump under 10%:

Trump:    189,112    (52.5%)
Biden:     153,178    (42.6%)
TOTAL:    356,044

Trump: +2,506      (Trump +92)     Trump -0.2%
Biden:  +2,414                              Biden  +0.1%

Not sure yet which House Districts these votes came from.

[NOVA Green]

Keep it up Tender!!!

It's helping me with a side project of grabbing precinct level election results!

Weird US GE Election Year for so many reasons--- still this is an important project you are doing, and keep up the good work.

[NOVA Green]

So aside with the color shading discussion (I will go with whatever everyone else decides to go with), it appears that Alaska is delaying their certification because of the Ballot Measure #2 Audit.

https://www.alaskasnewssource.com/2020/11/26/alaska-election-results-wont-be-certified-until-at-least-friday-before-ballot-measure-2-audit-begins/

That being said, can I feel confident that the 2020 PRES GE numbers are correct?

I just want to make sure before I run some final precinct numbers that there still aren't PRES ballots floating around out there....

Opinions y'all?

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1333173621200711683?s=21

Hopefully that means they will dump the precinct data Statewide at that time....

Lots of good data to be mined.

[NOVA Green]

No, Biden made gains in various native communities across the country.

Oglala Lakota County, SD:

Biden: 88%
Trump: 9%

Clinton: 86%
Trump 8%

Menominee County, WI:

Biden: 82%
Trump: 17%

Clinton: 76%
Trump: 20%

Apache County, AZ:

Biden: 66%
Trump: 32%

Clinton: 62%
Trump: 30%

Lower Red Lake Indian Reserve, MN:

Biden: 94%
Trump: 4%

Clinton: 88%
Trump: 3%

Sioux County, ND:  

Biden: 68%
Trump: 22%

Clinton: 62%
Trump: 21%

Todd County, SD:

Biden: 77%
Trump: 21%

Clinton: 71%
Trump: 23%

I posted this on another thread that I mistakenly thought was about native Americans and not Indian Americans.  Interesting to see the gains in the Indigenous communities across the country.

Don't forget about a few other Counties with large Native Populations:

Big Horn County, Montana:

2020:

Biden:   2,491     (52.1%)      +6.0% Biden    (+0.3% DEM Swing)
Trump:  2,207     (46.1%)
Misc:         86      ( 1.8%)
Total:    4,784                        +13.3% 2016 to 2020 TV increase

2016:

HRC:     2,094    (49.6%)      +5.7% HRC
Trump:  1,853    (43.9%)
Misc:       277     ( 6.6%)
Total:    4,224       

Glacier County, Montana:

2020:

Biden:      3,610    (64.3%)      +34.3% Biden     (+4.6% DEM Swing)   
Trump:     1,910    (34.0%)     
Misc:        111     ( 2.2%)
Total:       5,617                     +11.0% 2016 to 2020 TV increase

2016:

HRC:     3,121    (61.7%)      +29.7 HRC
Trump:  1,620    (32.0%)
Misc:       320    ( 6.3%)
Total:    5,061

Roosevelt County, Montana

2020:

Biden:   1,910   (47.5%)      +2.2 Trump    (+4.1% DEM Swing)
Trump:  1,996   (49.7%)
Misc:        111    ( 2.8%)
Total:    4,017                      +10.1% 2016 to 2020 TV increase

2016:

HRC:     1,560    (42.8%)      +6.5% Trump
Trump:  1,797    (49.3%)
Misc:       291    ( 8.0%)
Total:    3,648

*** To put it mildly, these are less than impressive improvements, although granted it is entirely possible that surges of New "Non Native" Voters in some of these places reduced the DEM swing after the Nadir of HRC performance on Native Land ***