2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[NOVA Green]

So, I figured it might be of interest for some to look at the EV numbers in Oregon (sure not as sexy as competitive states this cycle, but better than some of the random squabbling we've been seeing pop up here periodically in recent days).

For some perspective, let's look at the RV numbers from Nov '16 to Eligible RV by Party as of the Registration cut-off deadline:



DEM's hold roughly a 293k RV edge of PUBs as of 10/20, and actually gained an additional +24k lead since 11/18.

Non-Affiliated and 3rd Party voters have become the largest bloc of the RV since AVR through Department of Motor Vehicles starting in 2018, and it will be interesting to see what impact it may or may not play in a PRES Election Year.

Here is the data in a % of RV format:



I will spare a detailed County level breakdown on this thread at this point, and save some of that information for another thread, and instead call relevant data within a broader contextual narrative.

Let's start with a Cumulative Raw Total EV by Party REG Chart as of the OR SoS Update from 10/20/20 AM:

TOTAL VOTES CAST: 279,454 (9.5% of Total RVs) in just a few days of voting.



Now let's look at the Cumulative Partisan % Affiliation of all ballots returned to date:



Currently right now Registered Democrats account for a staggering 59% of TOT OR ballots cast to date, versus only 18% cast by Registered Republicans.

This will naturally change in coming days.

Still, let's look at the Total % of Votes Cast as of 10/20/20 AM by Partisan Registration:



Roughly 16.7% of Oregon Registered DEMs have already voted in Oregon, versus only a relatively small 6.7% of REG PUBs and 5.5% of REG OTHERs.

Now let's look at Today's Updates in terms of Total Raw Votes between 9/19 AM and 9/20 AM SoS numbers.

10/19 AM to 10/20 AM Updates:

Out of 191k Votes updated, DEMs added +69.2k Vote Margin into the bank, and PUBs fell behind OTHER RVs in Raw numbers.



Now let's look at the daily % breakdown between that same update period:



I'll jump back shortly with a few brief notes, but before anyone gets too excited Multnomah County is a major driver behind these extremely distorted EV numbers....

[NOVA Green]

Oregon Early Voting 2020 Notes and broad commentary:

1.) As an all VbM State, ballots are not sent out and do not arrive at all locations simultaneously and can vary from County to County and Municipality / Region.

2.) Oregon now has free postage provided, so ballot returns might be quicker depending upon one's location and accessibility to local County official Ballot Drop Boxes.

3.) The County Mailing schedule might well explain extremely low ballots received from Columbia, Josephine, and Yamhill Counties in particular, and quite possibly to some extent Clackamas County as well.

4.) The proximity to local County ballot drop boxes might also explain some of the numbers we are seeing in Republican strongholds like Coos and Linn Counties, and even to a lesser extent in Douglas, county, where DEMs are currently leading by wide margins in the former two and only slightly trailing in the latter.

Even in more heavily Republican Counties in Oregon, there are actually a significant number of Democrats in places like Coos Bay / North Bend, Albany, and Roseburg.

5.) I was a bit surprised by the extremely large DEM early numbers out of Multnomah County, considering there is a competitive Mayoral Election going on in Portland, so surprised to see so many voters up there have already made up their mind.

6.) It is also entirely plausible in Oregon that many voters of all affiliations are mulling over the ballot initiatives, but really we only have four on the ballot this year, because of the difficulty in getting signatures, that might be slowing down voters getting their ballots in.

7.) Early numbers from Marion County look troubling for PUBs this Year, and reinforce my opinion that the County will flip back DEM this Year, with Keizer sealing the deal.

[NOVA Green]

One other thing to note is it seems like, among the counties that voted Dem/for Beto but have relatively low turnout compared to 2018, it seems like rural Hispanic counties dominate those.

Some examples of that are Maverick County (which Beto won by 44.3% but which has only 43.8% of 2018's turnout), Jim Hogg county (which gave Beto a 44% margin but where there is only 47.8% of 2018's turnout so far), and Brooks County (49.5% of 2018 turnout, gave Beto a 43.3% margin).

So, while turnout does seem to be relatively good in some urban Hispanic areas such as Nueces County (Corpus Christi), El Paso County (El Paso), and Cameron County (Brownsville), so far early vote turnout in rural and smaller-town Hispanic areas seems relatively weaker.

It is also that weakness in those rural Dem Hispanic counties that makes the negative correlation between turnout so far as a share of the 2018 total turnout and Cruz margin not be stronger. If it were not for these sorts of counties weighing things down with weak turnout, so far, then there would likely be a pretty clear positive correlation between Beto vote and high turnout relative to 2018 on the county level.

As someone who lived in TX (Harris County) for 4 Years back in the early / Mid 2010s and was following the whole "BlueTejas" deal, there were interesting well sourced documents about how working-class Latinos are not only much more heavily DEM (At that point something like 80-20 D) than Middle-Class and Upper-Middle Class Latinos, but also tended to vote much less frequently for Midterm Elections.

I would imagine that 2020 would be a reversion to Turnout levels akin to 2016 (And quite likely higher) among this demographic.

2018 BETO vs Cruz swing were heavily based upon dramatic shifts among Anglo voters in the large metropolitan areas of TX, which was a trend heavily visible in 2016, especially in Upper Mid-class suburbs and city neighborhoods.

It would be interesting to do an analysis of precinct EV vs ED turnout in heavily Latino communities in places like Harris County, Bexar County, etc...

Yeah-- you're right the RGV is perhaps more visible, simply because the population is so heavily Latino, vs trying to parse out precincts in Bexar, Austin, Houston, Cy-Fair, etc...

[NOVA Green]

OREGON- 10/21/20 AM UPDATE:

495,082 Ballots Received:    (24.7% of 2016 TOTAL PRES).    
                                         (16.8% of 2020 TOTAL Registered Voters)

I posted the updates from Yesterday AM, but also included some data regarding Total RVs in OR from '16 to '20, so linking below for reference.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=392429.msg7670571#msg7670571

10/21/20 AM Update: Cumulative Raw Total Vote in OR by Partisan Registration



DEMs are already leading PUBs by 168k Votes in only a few days of voting, in a State where HRC won by only 220k Votes.

10/21/20 AM Update: Total Cumulative Vote by Partisan Registration % Chart:



Over 55% of ballots received thus far are Democratic Ballots, with Republicans (21%) trailing even Non-Affiliated / 3rd Party Party Voters (23%).

Total % of Votes Received by Political Party Registration:



26% of OR DEMs have already cast their ballots, versus 14% of Republicans and 10% of "Others".

Wow--- this is pretty crazy EV Turnout, even by Oregon Standards.

Now Here is the Total Daily Ballot Update from 10/20 AM to 10/21 AM by Political Registration:



Damn!   Record day for OR Total Turnout with 215k Votes dumped in one day.

DEMs add another +54k Net Margins, a bit lower than the 10/20 dump with +69k Net Margins.

Now let's look at the daily update as a % of Vote by Political Registration:



Daily sample: (51-25-24    DEM-PUB-OTHER).

What does this mean?

There are still 780k DEM Ballots not yet received and 655k PUB Ballots not yet received.

Meanwhile overall in OR NAV Voters tend to skew much more DEM vs PUB in recent Federal Elections

These numbers do not appear to be good at all for Republicans in Oregon at all, and I am starting to sniff a bit of a down-ballot route coming....

[NOVA Green]

OREGON- 10/22/20 AM UPDATE (Day 4 of Full Reports)

736,109 Ballots Received:    (36.8% of 2016 TOTAL PRES).     +12.1% Daily Jump 
                                         (24.9% of 2020 TOTAL RV)          + 8.1%  Daily Jump

Before provide the Daily Update, here are the links to my two previous daily updates in this thread, for anyone who might be interested.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=392429.msg7670571#msg7670571

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=392429.msg7674522#msg7674522

So... let's roll the numbers.

10/22/20 AM Update: Cumulative Raw Total Vote in OR by Partisan Registration



DEMs expand their Raw Vote margins to +210k (Getting awfully close to the +220k DEM '16 PRES Margins).

10/22/20 AM Update: Total Cumulative Vote by Partisan Registration %:



Of the 736,109 ballots received (52% DEM- 21% PUB- 23% Misc) vs RV (36% DEM- 26% PUB- 39% Misc). !!!

Total % of Votes Received by Political Party Registration:



Now Here is the Total Daily Ballot Update from 10/21 AM to 10/22 AM by Political Registration:



DEM's increase Raw Vote Margins by 42k... another record day for Oregon Turnout with 241k New Votes added.

Now let's look at the daily update as a % of Vote by Political Registration:



PUB's starting to catch up, but DEMs still lead by a giant huge +17.5% Vote by RV by Political Party.

A few brief notes and comments:

1.) Initially, with my first reporting of Oregon Ballot returns by County, I posited a hypothetical that part of the reason for large initial DEM leads in SAFE PUB Counties in Oregon, might well have been caused by access to local Ballot Box Drop sites and/or potentially also delays in mail service, when getting the votes back to the County Election HQ.

2.) Increasingly as the results come in, it appears that this is not the case.

3.) OR Republicans are extremely familiar with VbM, and although the gap is closing slightly in terms of % Turnout by Registered Party, this does not explain what we are observing in 2020, even compared to 2018 numbers.

4.) I was not expecting to see overwhelming Democratic numbers dominating and low voter turnout levels among Registered Republicans, even in heavily Republican Counties in Oregon sustained as long as it has been.

5.) Even adjusting for the dramatic DEM TO in Metro PDX, the DEM TO numbers appear to be insane even from strong Trump Counties such as Linn and Douglas Counties, let alone even discussing Jackson, Deschutes, and Marion Counties.

6.) Seniors in the Oregon Coastal Counties appear to be turning out much more heavily to cast DEM ballots vs PUB ballots from Clatsop County down to Curry County

7.) Not quite sure why Republicans aren't really voting that much this election, even in heavily "Trump Country" in Oregon...

I don't want as a Downstate Oregonian for Metro PDX to run our State, but at the same time we aren't automatically "Anti-Salem"...

8.) As I have previously posted the OR AVR via DMV could well create a Tsunami in Oregon, with tons of new voters in 2020, and potentially wipe out what little "strongholds" the PUBs have yet remaining for OR HD and SD...

OR has lost it's only Lady Solo Statewide Elected Pol for quite some time....