NE-01 (D Internal): Trump +2

[NOVA Green]

That would suggest some huge movement Lancaster County and perhaps even some in Sarpy. Lancaster voted 56-44 for the Democratic gubernatorial nominee so it seems due for a sharp shift.

I'm not totally shocked to see this, considering NE-03 2020 GE results / margins will likely not shift dramatically from '16 numbers...

Bellevue (3rd largest City in Nebraska- located in Sarpy County:

2012 and 2016 Election Results:


2012: (42.1 D- 55.4 R)     +13.3 % R
2016: (36.7 D- 53.5 R)     +16.8 % R        (+3.5% R Swing)

These are from some precinct level numbers I ran on a 2016 GE thread...

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=272471.msg5835503#msg5835503

Interestingly enough, some of the precinct work I did for the wealthiest places in Nebraska showed Lancaster and Sarpy County wealthy cities not swinging towards HRC the way they did elsewhere in the Country...

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=259050.msg5715360#msg5715360

It seems logical to me that places which did not swing heavily DEM in '16 in relatively educated and middle-class areas with large Anglo populations, might be having a bit of a case of "buyers remorse" for voting Trump in '16 despite the fact that both Trump and HRC were relatively unpopular in these types of places....

When looking at the City of Lincoln (Lancaster County), the best numbers I could find was 44.9% HRC and 44.7% DJT, but it excluded absentee ballots which I was not able to parse...

Nebraska- Lincoln, NE (44.9 D %- 44.7 R %).   NOTE: These results do not include absentee vote estimations in a County, where voters overwhelmingly supported HRC in these vote counts... Will need to do some precinct modeling numbers to get a closer percentage, but Cornhuskers Country appears to be Lean HRC Country once we run some statistical modelling....

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=273504.msg5844463#msg5844463

It would be a total trip to see a scenario where Nebraska gives a 2-3 EC Vote DEM-PUB... (Not to mention the tantalizing and delicious possibility that 2/3 NE Representatives to the US-House might be Democrats!  It makes my saliva glands drool at the prospect of a juicy and tasty meal cookin' on the stove towards the possibilities available come this November...  I almost smell a roast cooking in the crockpot before the slow simmer with juices and spices seeping in before the meat is finally ready for consumption this coming November.

Not saying it's gonna happen, but statewide polling of Kansas as well as House CD's should definitely give pause

[NOVA Green]

Should Nebraska join the Rust Belt Rack, or the Sun Belt Stack?

The obvious and natural answer is that neither applies within the CW of Atlas as well as American Election pundits...

Nebraska has a proud history, along with other parts of the Great Plains as actually being competitive in '88 with the Dukakis-Bentsen ticket doing really well with a combo bag of the Farm Crisis, combined with the lack of an economic recovery at the tail end of the Reagan Recession of the 1980s...

The "large cities" of Nebraska have tended to support Democrats at Presidential and Statewide Elections for some time, but not in overwhelming numbers and margins, like other joints around the plains.

Shifts and flips are increasingly looking likely to happen from the belt that stretches from North Texas, up to Oklahoma, and well into Kansas and Nebraska with the growth of Data Center jobs, Health Sector jobs, and other types of skilled employment which is triggering the rise of new migrants to the Cities throughout the region...