NE-01 (D Internal): Trump +2

[Bidenworth2020]

https://journalstar.com/legislature/don-walton-big-winners-emerge-from-grand-legislative-bargain/article_a28329a5-9cf1-57c2-b637-08cf3537b491.html

Trump 48
Biden 46

56-36 Trump in 2016.

Biden +15 in Lancaster county (tied in 2016).

[GlobeSoc]

would imply a trump collapse in the great plains region

[Person Man]

NE-02 should be won by Biden then.

[Gracile]

You should probably note that this is an internal for Kate Bolz (D) - the Democratic congressional candidate in this district.

I don't buy this, however if there's even a modest collapse in Trump support in NE would firmly put NE-02 in Biden's column (we really need more polling of that district, though).

[Lisa's voting Biden]

I'm so sick of all this winning!

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

If this is true (which I don’t think it is), would Nebraska's 2 at large EVs be up for grabs?

[Gracile]

If this is true (which I don’t think it is), would Nebraska's 2 at large EVs be up for grabs?

No. NE-03 is overwhelmingly Republican (Trump won it by over 50 points) and it is large enough to offset collapses in the other two districts.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Wait, this is a poll of Nebraska's FIRST district? Holy crap.

[DrScholl]

That would suggest some huge movement Lancaster County and perhaps even some in Sarpy. Lancaster voted 56-44 for the Democratic gubernatorial nominee so it seems due for a sharp shift.

[Landslide Lyndon]

These numbers are just too good to be true.

[Pollster]

This district is virtually equivalent demographically to KS-02 (this one is actually slightly more urban and diverse), and both are great plains districts that cover a lot of rural area but are anchored by a growing urban base county that was narrowly decided in 2016 and is prime territory demographically for Trump to collapse in.

Not surprised if this is close to the truth in the current environment.

[Oryxslayer]

Given the rules about internals, and how you give the party who didn't release the poll a swing of a few points, Trump still looks to be leading here by a good amount. However, the numbers do appear to conform to that Biden+7/8 environment we are seeing in polls.

[wbrocks67]

Given the rules about internals, and how you give the party who didn't release the poll a swing of a few points, Trump still looks to be leading here by a good amount. However, the numbers do appear to conform to that Biden+7/8 environment we are seeing in polls.

probably closer to Biden +10

[Progressive Pessimist]

Good news for NE-2 at the very least.

[NOVA Green]

That would suggest some huge movement Lancaster County and perhaps even some in Sarpy. Lancaster voted 56-44 for the Democratic gubernatorial nominee so it seems due for a sharp shift.

I'm not totally shocked to see this, considering NE-03 2020 GE results / margins will likely not shift dramatically from '16 numbers...

Bellevue (3rd largest City in Nebraska- located in Sarpy County:

2012 and 2016 Election Results:


2012: (42.1 D- 55.4 R)     +13.3 % R
2016: (36.7 D- 53.5 R)     +16.8 % R        (+3.5% R Swing)

These are from some precinct level numbers I ran on a 2016 GE thread...

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=272471.msg5835503#msg5835503

Interestingly enough, some of the precinct work I did for the wealthiest places in Nebraska showed Lancaster and Sarpy County wealthy cities not swinging towards HRC the way they did elsewhere in the Country...

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=259050.msg5715360#msg5715360

It seems logical to me that places which did not swing heavily DEM in '16 in relatively educated and middle-class areas with large Anglo populations, might be having a bit of a case of "buyers remorse" for voting Trump in '16 despite the fact that both Trump and HRC were relatively unpopular in these types of places....

When looking at the City of Lincoln (Lancaster County), the best numbers I could find was 44.9% HRC and 44.7% DJT, but it excluded absentee ballots which I was not able to parse...

Nebraska- Lincoln, NE (44.9 D %- 44.7 R %).   NOTE: These results do not include absentee vote estimations in a County, where voters overwhelmingly supported HRC in these vote counts... Will need to do some precinct modeling numbers to get a closer percentage, but Cornhuskers Country appears to be Lean HRC Country once we run some statistical modelling....

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=273504.msg5844463#msg5844463

It would be a total trip to see a scenario where Nebraska gives a 2-3 EC Vote DEM-PUB... (Not to mention the tantalizing and delicious possibility that 2/3 NE Representatives to the US-House might be Democrats!  It makes my saliva glands drool at the prospect of a juicy and tasty meal cookin' on the stove towards the possibilities available come this November...  I almost smell a roast cooking in the crockpot before the slow simmer with juices and spices seeping in before the meat is finally ready for consumption this coming November.

Not saying it's gonna happen, but statewide polling of Kansas as well as House CD's should definitely give pause

[Rand]

would imply a trump collapse in the great plains region

It is what it is.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

As the metro/rural divide grows you will definitely see states like KS/NE/OK being much closer than before in the coming years, though still not competitive in most elections.

[DaleCooper]

The district as a whole is not competitive but I wouldn't be shocked if Biden wins Lancaster county by at least close to double digits.

[Ferguson97]

GREAT PLAINS JOE

[Roronoa D. Law]

As the metro/rural divide grows you will definitely see states like KS/NE/OK being much closer than before in the coming years, though still not competitive in most elections.

I think SC and AK are more likely than NE and OK.

[Calthrina950]

The district as a whole is not competitive but I wouldn't be shocked if Biden wins Lancaster county by at least close to double digits.

That would represent a dramatic swing compared to 2016, when Hillary Clinton won Lancaster County by just 0.23% against Trump, and with only a 45% plurality. But given the swings we've seen in urban and suburban areas throughout the country over the past four years, it wouldn't surprise me. I imagine that with his improvements in Lancaster and Douglas Counties (and probably also Sarpy County), that Biden might manage to get around 40% of the statewide vote, like Obama did in 2008.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Should Nebraska join the Rust Belt Rack, or the Sun Belt Stack?

[NOVA Green]

Should Nebraska join the Rust Belt Rack, or the Sun Belt Stack?

The obvious and natural answer is that neither applies within the CW of Atlas as well as American Election pundits...

Nebraska has a proud history, along with other parts of the Great Plains as actually being competitive in '88 with the Dukakis-Bentsen ticket doing really well with a combo bag of the Farm Crisis, combined with the lack of an economic recovery at the tail end of the Reagan Recession of the 1980s...

The "large cities" of Nebraska have tended to support Democrats at Presidential and Statewide Elections for some time, but not in overwhelming numbers and margins, like other joints around the plains.

Shifts and flips are increasingly looking likely to happen from the belt that stretches from North Texas, up to Oklahoma, and well into Kansas and Nebraska with the growth of Data Center jobs, Health Sector jobs, and other types of skilled employment which is triggering the rise of new migrants to the Cities throughout the region...

[MT Treasurer]

Almost certainly a few points too D-friendly, but I believe people are going to be surprised by how much NE-02 is going to shift much like they were surprised by ME-02 in 2016. I think it’s the most likely Trump/Biden flip.

I expect him to win NE by a margin very close to Deb Fischer's 2018 result.

[Xing]

NE-01 won’t flip, but if these numbers are within 10% of reality, NE-02 absolutely will. I could see Biden winning it by high single digits.