States’ largest cities that will vote for Trump. (user search)
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Author Topic: States’ largest cities that will vote for Trump.  (Read 12159 times)
NOVA Green
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« Reply #25 on: August 28, 2020, 04:18:58 AM »

New Mexico: Largest Trump '16 City:

#3: Rio Rancho

Reagente posted on the 2016 thread "Largest City (or Municipality) in each State to vote for Trump"

"New Mexico

Clinton clearly won Albuquerque (#1) and Las Cruces (#2).

Surprisingly enough, Trump so clearly won the next most populated municipality, Rio Rancho (#3) there was no need to check precincts to verify.
"

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=272471.msg5834490#msg5834490

So naturally I'm sure that the poster did his research and never had any reason to go through the exercise of examining precinct numbers from Rio Rancho, New Mexico within the 2016 GE nor 2018, let alone historical research projects.

I now understand why Reagente chose not to go through to calculate numbers for the City:

1.) We don't have precinct level municipal results available to more effectively identify precincts, split-precincts, and non-city precincts.

2.) Trying to identify where City Limits might have expanded between various elections makes it even more difficult when looking at historical "how did the City Vote in '08 type questions".

3.) The precinct boundaries that were in effect in Sandoval County for the '16 GE are not the precinct which show up on the County Precinct Map on their official website.

Where to start with this Project?

1.) First step is to establish the City Limits today...

Had to pull up a Satellite image to help reconcile City Limits.



2.) Where to find the precinct boundaries for the '16 GE?

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/election-2016-voting-precinct-maps.html#9.88/35.289/-106.729/124903

3.) Now I need to mirror my '16 GE PRES NM State data-set against the NYT '16 map.



4.) Then I gotta code precincts to fall into categories of: City, Split, & Non-City....

What a pain in the royal arse!!!!

5.) I attempt to build precinct coding then I run into the 2nd largest City in Sandoval County, Corrales New Mexico, (Pop 8.4k) where I gotta try to separate City from Uninc or even potential Rio Rancho / Uninc Splits (Ugh.... what a pain the butt...)


6.) So now I gotta look at their City Limits (Without access to precinct coding from municipal results)... sigh



7.) So naturally the next step is to code Rio Rancho precincts within Sandoval County using work-arounds.

2016 Precinct Map looks something like the following:



8.) 2016 Precinct data for areas within Rio Rancho City Limits in Sandoval County looks like the following:



9.) 2016 Precinct data for split precincts from Rio Rancho City Limits in Sandoval County looks like the following:



10.) What do the Sandoval County Rio Rancho Precincts look like from Raw Vote a % of 2016 TV?



11.) We are still missing a few precincts, since Rio Rancho crosses the BERNALILLO COUNTY line...

A brief review appears to indicate that HRC won or at min tied the Rio Rancho precincts South of the Border.

12.) The obvious wild cards in Rio Rancho are the '16 Gary Johnson voters... which is almost a New Mexico version of the McMullin vote in UT, but patched from a different cloth...

13.) I attempted to pull up precinct level results for Rio Rancho back for PRES '12 and '08 and ran into a brink wall (Please PM me if you have links to those results at a precinct level... I thought I had a comprehensive '08 GE PRES Precinct data set floating around somewhere, but if so I might have misplaced it)... Sad

14.) Regardless of the outstanding precincts in BERNALILLO County, Rio Rancho is looking potentially like a Trump > Biden flip in 2020...

Opinions my fellow Atlasians??


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NOVA Green
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« Reply #26 on: August 28, 2020, 04:55:49 AM »

Starting west of the Rockies:

Alaska: Fairbanks
Arizona: Mesa
California: Huntington Beach, Simi Valley, or Murrieta
Idaho: Meridian
Hawaii: Probably nowhere
Nevada: Henderson or Carson City
Oregon: Keizer or Grants Pass
Utah: Provo
Washington: Spokane Valley or Kennewick




You think Bakersfield won't vote for Trump? It's larger and more Republican than Huntington Beach. I actually expect HB and Simi Valley to vote Biden.

And I'm still not sold on Medford, but I would enjoy if it flipped.

I updated the list elsewhere in the thread after actually looking at precinct data. TL;DR, the biggest Trump city in CA will be Bakersfield or Visalia.

Do you still think HB and SV vote for Trump? I expect a cratering in the suburbs.

Almost certainly not and if they do, Bakersfield also voted for him by a lot. But they were basically tied in 2016 so nah. Those cities were just from a preliminary look at a precinct map to see where to dig deeper.

Not to attempt to interject in the middle of an Atlas Scrum...

I think it is a fair odds bet to look at Bakersfield as a 2020 Trump> Biden flip.

Maybe totally off-base, but the Bakersfield of '20 is not the Bakersfield of my buddy Jim, who was a post Vietnam-Era Marine, and a roughneck who worked the oil-fields of Kern County, who would crack jokes like "pass the ammunition and let God sort them out", while at the same time him and his wife were against the War in Iraq in Bush Jr era and he's working as a "Tree Climber" with the classic Northwest Logging Spiked boots, with lanyards and chainsaws to keep private property safe from storms and tree limbs flying during the ferocious Winter Storms off the Pacific Ocean in the Winter Time in the PacNW...

Bakersfield is something which appears like a "creeper weed"...

I already rolled the PRES numbers from back in the dayz (Although didn't dig into the '18 GE numbers).

If you want to throw $100 into Trump winning Bakersfield in online betting, I suspect you might be short of change....

Still--- it would def be interesting to look at Bakerfield by precinct and demographics from '12>'18, to see where shifts have happened.

All that being said, it is not an unreasonable proposition at all to say that Biden is likely a favorite to win Bakersfield under current National & State polling numbers, although it might not seem like the type of place which will swing hard in 2020.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #27 on: September 03, 2020, 02:29:04 AM »

New Mexico: Largest Trump '16 City:

#3: Rio Rancho

Reagente posted on the 2016 thread "Largest City (or Municipality) in each State to vote for Trump"

"New Mexico

Clinton clearly won Albuquerque (#1) and Las Cruces (#2).

Surprisingly enough, Trump so clearly won the next most populated municipality, Rio Rancho (#3) there was no need to check precincts to verify.
"

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=272471.msg5834490#msg5834490

So naturally I'm sure that the poster did his research and never had any reason to go through the exercise of examining precinct numbers from Rio Rancho, New Mexico within the 2016 GE nor 2018, let alone historical research projects.

I now understand why Reagente chose not to go through to calculate numbers for the City:

1.) We don't have precinct level municipal results available to more effectively identify precincts, split-precincts, and non-city precincts.

2.) Trying to identify where City Limits might have expanded between various elections makes it even more difficult when looking at historical "how did the City Vote in '08 type questions".

3.) The precinct boundaries that were in effect in Sandoval County for the '16 GE are not the precinct which show up on the County Precinct Map on their official website.

Where to start with this Project?

1.) First step is to establish the City Limits today...

Had to pull up a Satellite image to help reconcile City Limits.



2.) Where to find the precinct boundaries for the '16 GE?

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/election-2016-voting-precinct-maps.html#9.88/35.289/-106.729/124903

3.) Now I need to mirror my '16 GE PRES NM State data-set against the NYT '16 map.



4.) Then I gotta code precincts to fall into categories of: City, Split, & Non-City....

What a pain in the royal arse!!!!

5.) I attempt to build precinct coding then I run into the 2nd largest City in Sandoval County, Corrales New Mexico, (Pop 8.4k) where I gotta try to separate City from Uninc or even potential Rio Rancho / Uninc Splits (Ugh.... what a pain the butt...)


6.) So now I gotta look at their City Limits (Without access to precinct coding from municipal results)... sigh



7.) So naturally the next step is to code Rio Rancho precincts within Sandoval County using work-arounds.

2016 Precinct Map looks something like the following:



8.) 2016 Precinct data for areas within Rio Rancho City Limits in Sandoval County looks like the following:



9.) 2016 Precinct data for split precincts from Rio Rancho City Limits in Sandoval County looks like the following:



10.) What do the Sandoval County Rio Rancho Precincts look like from Raw Vote a % of 2016 TV?



11.) We are still missing a few precincts, since Rio Rancho crosses the BERNALILLO COUNTY line...

A brief review appears to indicate that HRC won or at min tied the Rio Rancho precincts South of the Border.

12.) The obvious wild cards in Rio Rancho are the '16 Gary Johnson voters... which is almost a New Mexico version of the McMullin vote in UT, but patched from a different cloth...

13.) I attempted to pull up precinct level results for Rio Rancho back for PRES '12 and '08 and ran into a brink wall (Please PM me if you have links to those results at a precinct level... I thought I had a comprehensive '08 GE PRES Precinct data set floating around somewhere, but if so I might have misplaced it)... Sad

14.) Regardless of the outstanding precincts in BERNALILLO County, Rio Rancho is looking potentially like a Trump > Biden flip in 2020...

Opinions my fellow Atlasians??


o looking at the Bernalillo County precincts of Rio Rancho are tricky since they are all split precincts (Precincts # 1, 57, 81, 115, & 118) and attempting to parse them for % within the City versus not in the City simply makes my brain ache...

That being said these (5) precincts had a total of 6,685 Total Votes (HRC: 44.9%, Trump: 42.2%, Johnson: 10.2%), so there is a chance that overall HRC slightly outperformed the numbers posted above)...

How did these same Sandoval County Rio Rancho precincts vote in the 2018 New Mexico US-Senate Election?



1.) First thing to note is that Heinrich (D) not only exceed HRC raw-vote numbers in an off-year election, but additionally bagged roughly 44-45% of the Vote for a Democratic Candidate, exceeding HRC's % by roughly 5%.

2.) Rich achieved only 37% of the vote in Rio Rancho, well below Trump's numbers by 10% within the City and 18% within the splits (!).

3.) Gary Johnson performed much better in 2018 in Rio Rancho running for US-SEN than he did for US-PRES in '16 (18% in 2018 vs the 11-12% in 2016).

4.) This appears to indicate that Rio Rancho Trump '16 PRES support might be much softer than one might imagine, especially with Biden at the top of the ticket...

5.) Demographics of Rio Rancho appear to be the type of place where one might perhaps expect to see slightly larger swings towards the Democrats at the Presidential Level in 2020:

     A.)  41.8% of the Population has a Post-Secondary Degree
     B.) MHI= $62.6k/Yr (137% of State Average) and ranks #8 within the State
     C.) Race/Ethnicity-   Is only 50% Anglo and 40% Latino....
     D.) Occupations tend to skew heavily "Pink Collar" and "Mgmt"
     E.) Industries dominated by Healthcare and Retail

6.) Still the population age complicates matters...

    A.) Anglos hit a majority of 55% at 45-54 Yrs.
    B.) Anglo jump to 65% at 55-64 Yrs
    C.) Anglos at 65+ start running into the 72-73% range.

7.) Era of COVID, Shifts in relatively Upper-Middle Class 'Burbs of Southwest Cities, trickling demographic changes, educational attainment....

8.) Personally would be surprised if Rio Rancho does not flip even in a Biden +6% National Popular Vote Margin.

Wish I had more data sets to run with...   Sad

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NOVA Green
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« Reply #28 on: September 05, 2020, 08:04:31 PM »

North Dakota: Largest Trump '16 City:

#1: Fargo



Fargo will flip in 2020 and vote for Joe Biden.

1.) 3rd Party Voters will break heavily against Trump 2020.

2.) Write-In Votes were predominately Sanders, and to a lesser extent perhaps McMullin, Romney or Colin Powell...

3.) Again extremely frustrated to see a relatively large (By scale of State) City split precincts, which does not allow us the granularity to determine exactly how the City voted over election cycles using these same precinct maps...

4.) For the purpose of precinct coding, I used the following to determine Fargo City vs Fargo Splits...



5.) The obvious next question should be how did Fargo vote for US-PRES previously?

I couldn't easily pull up the 2008 PRES GE numbers, which perhaps in the event of a Biden 6+% Win might be a good proxy for 2020 (Although I suspect I have them stashed somewhere on a different Hard Drive), but let's at least look at the 2012 PRES GE numbers...



6.) So it's pretty clear Obama won Fargo in 2012 by a plurality... and voted narrowly slightly to the Right of the Nation on a DEM vs PUB head to head matchup.

7.) The next obvious question is: How did Fargo vote in the 2018 GE?

US-Senate---   Heitkamp landslide...



8.) US-House 2018---



9.) Regardless of the whole split-precinct issue and debates about possible Obama '12 over-performance as a Midwestern Democrat, it would be a complete brain scratcher to envision Trump winning Fargo in 2020...

10.) Bismarck, North Dakota (#2) is the correct answer.











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NOVA Green
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« Reply #29 on: September 06, 2020, 11:24:39 PM »

South Dakota: Largest Trump '16 City:

#1: Sioux Falls

Let's look at the 2008 > 2016 US PRES Numbers by Raw Vote by County by Political Party:



Now let's look at Sioux Fall 2008 > 2016 US PRES Numbers by % by County and Political Party:



Key observations:

1.) Obama wins Sioux Falls by 50-48 in 2008 (+2% D) with a total of raw vote margin of +1.5k DEM.

2.) Obama loses Sioux Falls by 46-52 in 2012 (+6% R) with a total of raw vote margin of +4.6k PUB.

3.) Trump wins Sioux Falls by 52-41 in 2016 (+11% R) with a total raw vote margin of +7.5k PUB.

So basically we get into the Zone about 3rd Party Voters (In this case Gary Johnson Voters) to assess the "Futurity of Past and Current Data Points"...

A.) Obama won Sioux Falls in 2008 with a +2.0% margin, while winning the National Vote by 7.2%  (+5.2% R Ntl vs City)

B.) Obama lost Sioux Falls in 2012 with a +6.7% R margin, while winning the National Vote by +3.9% D  (+10.3% R Ntl vs City)

C.) HRC lost Sioux Falls in 2016 with a +10.4% R Margin, while winning the National Vote by +2.1% D   (+12.5% R Ntl vs City)

Sioux Falls is a "Tale of Two Counties"

1.) MHI by Census Tract is much higher in Lincoln County than Minnehaha County.



2.) Educational attainment by Census Tract is much higher in Lincoln County than Minnehaha County.



3.) Lincoln County is expanding it's vote share of Sioux Falls much more rapidly than Minnehaha County...

Will Sioux Falls flip in 2020???







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NOVA Green
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« Reply #30 on: September 07, 2020, 05:28:35 PM »

Nebraska: Largest Trump '16 City:

#3: Bellevue

It looks like Bellevue will likely hold for Trump in 2020... (Assuming we don't see something really wonky in Omaha or Lincoln).



Looking at it by percentages:



Several observations here:

1.) Presidential Total Vote numbers look really odd between '08 and '12.

2.) Precinct boundaries were consolidated between those elections, however the County Election data file for '08 looks like it clearly codes City Wards and Precincts, plus I cross checked against Bellevue City Council Election numbers for that same Year.

https://www.sarpy.com/sites/default/files/doc/offices/election/2008GeneralPrec.pdf

3.) For '12 and '16 PRES results, I coded precincts as Bellevue based upon the 2018 Mayoral Election, where it appears that precinct boundaries did not change...

https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/NE/Sarpy/92897/web/#/detail/0142

4.) Additionally, these appear to match the current precinct maps:

https://www.sarpy.com/sites/default/files/doc/election/Maps/LegDistwPrecinct.pdf

5.) It appears that the new precinct changes include several large split precincts (#11), & (#21) and (#24), which might account for some of the variance between Total Vote numbers, regardless of inherent population growth within the City of Bellevue.

6.) Regardless, without trying to wade through '08 precinct maps for Sarpy County (Feel free to PM me if you have a copy available), not to mention looking at City Limits annexations over the past (12) Years, I think it's best to look at the '12 and '16 GE PRES results as inclusive of several large split precincts.

7.) Still, once again the data demonstrates really how well Obama performed in 2008 in parts of the Midwest that were a bit "off the radar" (With the obvious exception of NE-02)!

8.) I did take the liberty of perusing the 2018 GE Results from Sarpy County (Bellevue in particular) to see if there was any major evidence of a "Democratic Surge" and couldn't really find anything dramatic other than a few precincts where the US-DEM House Candidate performed a bit better than one might expect...

9.) Now--- Bellevue does have an Air Force Base right next door so like any other communities with a higher than average % of active duty service members, vets, and general parts of the area with "Base Community" vibes, so who knows where this whole Trump Vets comments deal will go come November...

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NOVA Green
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« Reply #31 on: September 07, 2020, 06:23:07 PM »

It’s not overly likely, but Sioux Falls could flip in a decisive Biden victory.  My city probably has a better chance than the state of Iowa or Ohio, even though the 2016 Trump margins in those places were slightly lower. 

Thanks TDAS04!

So I've got a few things that I'm still trying to wrap my brain around within the context of what we currently know within the trajectory of the 2020 GE PRES Election:

1.) Even if we operate on the assumption based upon current national polling data that Biden looks likely to win the PV by somewhere within the 6-8% Range...

2.) Even if we operate on the assumption based upon current national polling data that Biden will consolidate the Lion's Share of 3rd Party and Write-In votes (Exceptions might well be in McMullin strong zones or areas where a large chunk of Write-In ballots tended to skew a bit more Mormon bcs of Demographics.

3.) Was Obama's success in the larger Cities of the "Grain Belt" of the Midwest innately connected with his Midwest Democratic background, family history in Kansas, unique impacts of the Great Recession?

4.) Is Obama's success in places like Fargo, Sioux Falls, Omaha, Billings, etc transferable to Biden?

5.) Trump '16 is the main baseline variable to operate on when trying to examine potential '20 GE PRES results, but simultaneously many Obama '08 voters in these places are well aware of Joe Biden...

6.) Sioux Falls in particular is a bit interesting in that it is actually not only a fairly large City (Pop 168k), and roughly 20% of the South Dakota POP, but also includes some very heavily Republican precincts in Lincoln County, which have an extremely high Household Income and Educational Attainment Level (Theoretically the types of places where in a decent sized City where one might envision some major swings, not to mention that Obama did win the City by 50-48 in 2008.)

7.) Do you have any insights on the Biden / Trump contest in the Lincoln County part of Sioux Falls, or similar precincts within the Minnehaha County around the South, Far West, and Far East?

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NOVA Green
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« Reply #32 on: September 08, 2020, 12:52:43 AM »
« Edited: September 10, 2020, 02:20:25 AM by NOVA Green »

Kansas: Largest Trump '16 City:

#1: Wichita... Tossup/ Tilt Trump 2020



IDK if Wichita is a 2020 Flip Zone, but % numbers would def put it on my flag as a PUB Op..



Haven't even run the 2018 Kansas numbers yet, but "Bloody Kansas" and the "Republican Civil War", will likely cause some hard hitting numbers even in Wichita, Kansas...

Assuming Biden +6-8% National, Wichita is totally in the Tossup Zone....
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #33 on: September 11, 2020, 09:33:19 PM »
« Edited: September 30, 2020, 05:38:38 PM by NOVA Green »

Kansas: Largest Trump '16 City:

#1: Wichita... Tossup/ Tilt Trump 2020

So I had 45 Minutes before I had to go to work earlier today and decided to go ahead and grab the entire Kansas 2018 precinct data set and quickly ran a query / pivot table, and look at the CD-04 election results:



What I am seeing here?

1.) We observe the '08>'12 GE PRES drop-off of Total Voters by roughly 10k and roughly 6% drop-off in TV.

2.) We see about 4k more Total GE PRES Votes between '12 and 16, but still significantly lower than the 2008 TV numbers... (Roughly 97%).

3.) Now we have in CD-04 a US House member who almost won Wichita, the legendary stronghold of the Anti-Choice Movement, which represents the vast majority of voters within the District.... with the overwhelming majority of voters coming from "Metro Wichita"....

4.) We see the DEM CD-04 House candidate out-perform the raw DEM PRES vote totals from 2012 and 2016!

So I thought it might be interesting to look at where the major swings towards the Democratic Party occurred between the 2016 GE PRES vs 2018 GE KS CD-04 in Wichita Precincts (+10% DEM Swings):



Fine... now lets look at a Table of precincts where there was a 15%+ DEM Swing within Wichita...



So... easy take is that 3rd Party Voters going hard DEM in '18 was a HUGE factor, while also we observe a significant decrease in Republican Total Vote Share % from 2-6% in most of these precincts...

It gets even more complicated once we look at the DEM voters who did not flip or turnout in '18 in larger numbers...

Filter are Precincts in Wichita which voted 60%+ DEM in '16...

(600) DEM votes disappeared between '16 and '18 and (200) PUB votes disappeared as well...



Most of these precincts fall within the historic "Red Lined" Black Communities of Wichita...

Anybody on Atlas who has not read the "Autobiography" of Malcom X, let alone the weaker Movie Rendition, need to buy a cheap paperback copy on eBay / Amazon / Local book stores...

Doesn't matter if you are "Jet Black" Brother or Sister or a "Cherokee Red" Brother or Sister, let alone Anglo, Latino, or Asian-American background...

Still doesn't appear that Black precincts in Wichita really voted that heavily in '18 compared to GE '16...

Haven't run the numbers from '08 / '12 on these same precincts and Damn not gonna blame a brother man for not voting in '16 with O'Bama off the ballot...

Meanwhile we have a significant Latino % in Wichita which is growing and now 16% of the POP (!!!)

Any way you look at the '18 House Results, it reinforces the concept that Wichita, Kansas might well flip DEM in 2020....


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NOVA Green
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« Reply #34 on: September 15, 2020, 01:18:59 AM »

Missouri: Largest Trump '16 City:

#1: Springfield... Lean/Likely Trump 2020



Still, there are a few items inconclusive when it comes to Absentee Vote breakdowns, but honestly Trump looks weaker in Springfield, MO than might be part of Conventional Wisdom.....

Food for thoughts, inputs welcomed as always....
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #35 on: September 16, 2020, 01:11:18 AM »

Missouri: Largest Trump '16 City:

#1: Springfield... Lean/Likely Trump 2020



Still, there are a few items inconclusive when it comes to Absentee Vote breakdowns, but honestly Trump looks weaker in Springfield, MO than might be part of Conventional Wisdom.....

Food for thoughts, inputs welcomed as always....


So--- I recognize that this is a somewhat boring side-topic for many of you, but either way Trump actually needs to perform well in larger population Centers which he won in 2016 in various States, since ultimately the massive shifts in Rural Areas in various places which propelled him to an EC Victory aren't transferable to 2020... especially when we start dropping down-ballot.

Regardless, I thought it might be interesting to look at the US-SEN results from Springfield MO in '16 and '18...



So in 2016 Kander almost beat Blunt in Springfield, with Blunt held down to only 48.0%?

So in 2018 McCaskill (D) beat Hawley (R) in Springfield 49.9% to 45.5%   (+4.4% D)?

Obviously the situation is a bit more complicated, and I have not addressed the whole "Greene County Absentee" question when it comes to City vs Non-City...

Split Precinct might slightly shift a few things on the margins as well when it comes to the % of the actual vote within the City itself...

Still '16 and '18 DEM for US-SEN results might actually bode well for Biden as a potential "Flip City", not to mention some of the polling results we have seen for MO, where the 'Burbs of St. Louis and KC cannot explain?

Also might explain shifts in neighboring parts of NW Arkansas?
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #36 on: September 19, 2020, 11:07:23 PM »

Minnesota: Largest Trump '16 City:

#9: St. Cloud....   Tilt / Likely Biden 2020...

So assuming St. Cloud flips is BRTD correct with Lakeville as being the largest city in MN to vote for Trump in 2016?

2016 GE PRES Results:



Go back in time...

2012 GE PRES Results:



2008 GE PRES Results:



2004 GE PRES Results:



2000 GE PRES Results:



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NOVA Green
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« Reply #37 on: September 20, 2020, 04:13:35 PM »

Minnesota: Largest Trump '16 City:

#9: St. Cloud....   Tilt / Likely Biden 2020...

So assuming St. Cloud flips is BRTD correct with Lakeville as being the largest city in MN to vote for Trump in 2016?


So, although I consider St. Cloud to be a Biden 2020 flip, based upon both the 2016 3rd Party numbers as well as the historical voting patterns of the City, I thought it might also be informative to look at the 2018 GE numbers.

2018 US Senate:

Newberger (R):    9,388      (36.9%)   
Klobuchar (D):     14,776    (58.1%)
TOTAL:                25,435

2018 US House CD-06:

Emmer (R):        11,924     (47.3%)
Todd    (D):         13,255    (52.5%)
TOTAL:               25,230

*** Note this was a House district which went 61-39 R in 2018***

I suspect that 2020 GE PRES results will be closer to the 2018 numbers...

#10: Woodbury (Metro Minneapolis- St. Paul) was something like Trump 40%- HRC 52%.

#11: Eagan   (Metro Minneapolis- St. Paul) was something like Trump 36%- HRC 54%.

#12: Eden Prairie  (Metro Minneapolis- St. Paul) was something like Trump 39%- HRC 53%.

These are all obviously Safe Biden cities in 2020.

The next largest City to vote for Trump in 2020 was

 #13: Coon Rapids (Metro Minneapolis- St. Paul)

Trump 47%-
HRC    44%

Will Trump hold Coon Rapids in 2020?





             
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #38 on: September 20, 2020, 07:16:02 PM »

Wisconsin: Largest Trump '16 City:

#7: Waukesha....   Tilt / Likely Trump 2020...

So--- I thought it might be a good idea to review the Top Ten largest Cities in Wisconsin, especially in light of recent events...





Will Green Bay or Appleton flip in 2020 from HRC > Trump?

What about recent unrest in Kenosha in a heavily HRC '16 City?

Is there any reason to suspect that Waukesha might flip in 2020 for Biden?

Could Oshkosh flip before Green Bay or Appleton?





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NOVA Green
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« Reply #39 on: September 20, 2020, 09:23:30 PM »

Wisconsin: Largest Trump '16 City:

#7: Waukesha....   Tilt / Likely Trump 2020...

So--- I thought it might be a good idea to review the Top Ten largest Cities in Wisconsin, especially in light of recent events...

IMAGES

Will Green Bay or Appleton flip in 2020 from HRC > Trump?

What about recent unrest in Kenosha in a heavily HRC '16 City?

Is there any reason to suspect that Waukesha might flip in 2020 for Biden?

Could Oshkosh flip before Green Bay or Appleton?


Since we're talking about the city proper areas, rather than their corresponding counties, these are interesting questions.

On the first point (GB and/or Appleton), I think the answer in a solid no on that flip, especially given the current national environment and the increasing trends towards the Democrats in urban and suburban areas. Joe Biden should see improvement on HRC's margins in both GB and Appleton.

On the second point (Kenosha), the recent unrest should not heavily influence Kenosha. It should still be a strong D bastion, especially with this environment. Polling indicates that Trump's response on the civil unrest was viewed more negatively, in general, because he did not do enough or he stoked the flames more than anything else. Some of his actions, particularly his comment on Kenosha not existing if it weren't for him or that photo shoot at a store against the present owner's consent, did do Trump any favors for Kenosha locals either.

On the third point (Waukesha), are we talking about the county or the city? If it's the city, there's a strong chance it will. In fact, if the environment remains unchanged or if it worsens for Trump, I believe one of the WOW counties may finally jump ship from Republicans à la Orange County (or at least come close). In that scenario, cities like Waukesha would be one of the big reasons why that happens (it was D-5 for Baldwin in 2018).

On the last point (city of Oshkosh), it could flip R, but not in this environment.

The Election numbers I posted for all are for the "Cities" only, and do not include "Townships", "Villages", nor Counties...

Still WOW counties are a lot more than just one City, and Trump attempts to play in WI, he's gotta do extremely well within the "Green Bay" area, plus WOW, and hold onto rurals...

Haven't run the 2018 numbers for Waukesha (City), but WI overall with Overall High Voter Turnout Levels that we are unlikely to observe massive TO changes from '16 GE in terms of % of votes...

Also haven't run the numbers from the City back in time, so a 41% HRC vs 51% Trump '16 number in '16 is not especially elucidating...

Meanwhile... Trump under-performs in "Rural Wisconsin" will likely be the kiss of death, regardless of the WOW Counties and Metro Green Bay area....

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/09/18/trump-wisconsin-suburbs-milwaukee-1501805
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« Reply #40 on: September 25, 2020, 03:48:47 AM »

It is amazing that Atlas, with all of our collective knowledge, as well as "Tribal Knowledge" continues to ignore the terrain of the Cities...

Even smaller Cities in smaller States are frequently more representative of "swings" than State Level Polls or National polls...

Let's take a peak at the largest Trump City in Iowa in 2016:

Iowa: Largest Trump '16 City:

#4: Sioux City....   Tossup/ Tilt Trump
[/size]

 US PRES GE Results from 2000 > 2016:



1.) NOVA GREEN pet peeve is when Absentee Votes are not consolidated into precincts at a County level....

2.) It appears that Iowa helped resolve this problem in '08 in order to create a greater level of granularity.... Iowa FF's live on, from the ancestors who fought and died in the Battlefields of the Civil War from Northern States, not to mention my German-American Ancestors who fled Germany after the failed revolution of '48 to come to the New World, and next thing you know as "Shoe Makers" are shoving their inventory up the "Dutch Ovens" as Johnny Reb marches North starting as a Provision Raid and feint into Pennsylvania... shorty before the Battle of Gettsyburg (Basically an Hour Drive from the road from Grandparents on my Mother's side)...

3.) Rant aside, it appears that Sioux City voted for Gore in 2000...

Kerry/Bush '04: Starts to become sketch because of distribution of votes, but still '04 "City Votes", even if we assign Absentee Votes heavily towards the City vs other precincts, looks pretty clear that Bush Jr won Sioux City by decent numbers.

4.) O'Bama was clearly popular out here in both '08 / '12.... Could be because he was a Midwest Populist Democrat with deep roots in both Illinois and Kansas...

So rolling at 52%- 53% DEM in '08 / '12 might have been an outlier...

5.) 2016 GE PRES number clearly indicated not only massive Obama > Trump swings, but additionally likely the highest performance of a Republican Presidential Candidate in Sioux City since Bush Jr in '04...

Haven't really spent time looking at the '18 Iowa GE Results, but quite frankly Sioux City will most likely be the "bell-weather City" when it comes to if Biden or Trump wins Iowa...

Thoughts all y'all?





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NOVA Green
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« Reply #41 on: September 25, 2020, 08:04:20 PM »

Iowa: Largest Trump '16 City:

#4: Sioux City....   Tossup/ Tilt Trump


So--- since I had today off of work, I thought I would go through and look at some other recent election results from the City...

Let's start with election results in Sioux City for CD-04 from 2012 to 2018:



Now let's look at a few other recent miscellaneous elections in Sioux City:



So--- a few brief observations:

1.) The 2018 CD-04 numbers theoretically could represent bad news for Trump in the GE in Iowa and the City of Sioux City.

A +16% DEM vote against Steve King, represented a +21% DEM swing from the CD-04 results in 2016.

2.) However, it should be noted that turnout was significantly lower in 2018, so it is difficult to ascertain how much of these votes were simply a significantly higher DEM base turnout versus PUB base turnout with Steve King becoming increasingly toxic even among many Republican leaning voters.

3.) The 2016 CD-04 results tell another interesting story:

Steve King's 2016 numbers, both in terms of raw vote and Republican % of the vote effectively mirrored Trump's numbers.

This strongly suggests that 2016 3rd Party PRES voters voted overwhelmingly Democratic for the CD-04 candidate.

4.) It appears that Trump's ceiling in Sioux City is somewhere around the 52% range, and also that Biden should be a massive net beneficiary of 2016 3rd Party PRES voters and that Biden is likely looking at a 46-47% floor in 2020.

5.) The 2018 Iowa Gubernatorial Election reinforces the point, and indicates that Sioux City tends to vote slightly to the Right of Iowa as a whole, effectively meaning that it might well be considered a bit of bellwether place when looking at how Iowa as a whole will vote in 2020 for US-PRES and US-SEN.

6.) The US-SEN results from '16 accentuate this point with Sioux City actually voting slightly to the Left of Iowa, in what was effectively a Grassley landslide...

The US-SEN results from '14 show Ernst slightly over-performing Statewide numbers...

7.) Recent state polling appears to indicate that Iowa is currently pretty much close to toss-up territory for both the Presidential and US-Senate race in 2020...

8.) Despite the '08 & '12 Obama PRES performance numbers, as well as CD-04 numbers from '12 and '18, I would still consider Trump to be a slight favorite here.

Running the additional numbers reinforces my initial assessment that Sioux City is a Tossup / Tilt Trump City.

Additionally, BOLD PREDICTION: If Biden wins Sioux City he will have won Iowa and most likely we will have a Democratic Senator representing the State once the new session of the Senate is sworn in...








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NOVA Green
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« Reply #42 on: September 27, 2020, 04:57:52 AM »

[size=12
pt]Michigan: Largest Trump '16 City:

#4: Sterling Heights....   Tilt / Lean Trump in 2020.
[/size]

Let's look at the 2000 to 2016 GE PRES Raw Vote Numbers...



Roll the PRES numbers by % of Vote by Party...



Now let's look at how Sterling Heights voted for US-SEN over the past Decades...



Sterling Heights House and Michigan Gubernatorial Results coming shortly....

2018 numbers have mixed messages....


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NOVA Green
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« Reply #43 on: September 27, 2020, 04:57:05 PM »

Michigan: Largest Trump '16 City:

#4: Sterling Heights....   Tilt / Lean Trump in 2020.


So to follow up on my preceding post--- adding in numbers for

Sterling Heights--- US House 2002 to 2018:





Sterling Heights--- Michigan Governor 2002 to 2018:



So--- how to interpret all of this data?

1.) Sterling Heights has consistently had a Republican lean relative to statewide results at the Presidential level for every election from 2000 to 2016.

Bush won the city by 2.7% and 3.6% respectively in 2000 and 2004.

Even Obama significantly under-performed in both 2008 and 2012, despite winning the City both times but well below his statewide margins in Michigan.

2.) There is no way to read the 2016 Presidential election results in Sterling Heights other than as a total collapse of Democratic support, and unlike in many other places where 3rd Party voting was a major reason, here it is clear that there was a significant swing towards Trump and his brand of Republicanism.

3.) For Sterling Heights to flip at the Presidential level, it would involve a massive swing almost on the order of the 2012 > 2016 Republican swing.

4.) Overall the US Senate numbers from Sterling Heights would appear to be generally favorable for Democrats (With the exception of 2000), and indicate that perhaps partisan affiliation is more malleable than Presidential top-line numbers might suggest.

5.) On it's surface the 2018 Senate numbers could be construed as a possible sign that Sterling Heights is moving back at the Presidential level in 2020.

The overall total turnout was at a record level for an off-year election with 48.6k US-SEN ballots cast and a +2.5% D win in the City.

However, I am not totally convinced yet that this is the case, especially considering this was the worst result for a DEM for US-SEN in the City since 2000!

6.) The US-House numbers tell an interesting story, and perhaps also could be interpreted as positive movement in the direction of the Democratic Party.

     A.) From 2002 > 2010 Republicans effectively dominated the US-House vote within the City, winning by convincing, and in some cases overwhelming margins.

    B.) 2012/2014 proved better for the DEMs with redistricting and solid margins in CD-09

    C.) In 2016 we see Republicans edging out Democrats narrowly in the total House vote within Sterling Heights and the Republican vote share in CD-09 moving up to almost 45% of the vote.

   D.) 2018 was essentially very close to 2016, with some minor DEM gains overall but with the best performance for a DEM in the CD-10 portion of the City...

So on balance, it's difficult to see any clear evidence that 2018 US House results are indicative of 2020 PRES voting patterns here...

7.) The Gubernatorial results from 2018 perhaps might be the clearest indicator of shifts that might roll into 2020, considering that since 2002 generally Sterling Heights has been a Republican City (with the exception of 2006)... since these are all off-year elections it might auger potential bigger shifts within the electorate that could transfer into 2020.

Will it be enough? Do we really have sufficient evidence that Biden will be able to create a +12% PRES Swing in Sterling Heights in 2020?

At this point, I'm still gonna go with my gut that this is a Tilt / Lean Trump City in 2020...













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NOVA Green
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« Reply #44 on: October 01, 2020, 02:56:36 AM »

Indiana: Fort Wayne--- Tossup



Dramatic drop-off in DEM votes between '08 and '16 appears to have been a direct result of decreased Black turnout, plus White Boys & Girls voting 3rd Party...]

Lack of IN polls don't help but at min this would be a "Tilt Trump" City, but strongly suspect that in a Biden +6-8% Ntl and strong performance overall in the Midwest that Biden will win the City....
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« Reply #45 on: October 03, 2020, 09:10:04 PM »

So been on a vacation for almost a week now....   still thought it might be instructive to examine the 2016 PRES numbers in greater detail:

So here is an updated spreadsheet regarding official 2016 results by City / Municipality...







So...

1.) I inserted a new "Rating Column" to include predictions by City based upon National / State-wide polling, election history, and "fundamentals".

2.) I also attempted to in the PRES POP vote by Party using a Binary calculation, but not neglecting 3rd Party voters as # and %.

3.) I have independently vetted all of the Raw Votes numbers posted, but Atlas sources generally run their own independent audits, and we cop to it, even if numbers are wrong...  Wink

Thoughts Atlas collective scrum???
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #46 on: October 03, 2020, 09:35:35 PM »

@Nova

Are you saying that Trump has a chance at winning the city of Erie, or just that Millcreek is a part of the city (which I don't think it is)?

Hillary won Erie city by nearly 30 points.

Apologies.... I have not done my own investigation of PA numbers yet, but I believe that the way the "original thread" from 2016 was setup was that folks could select city or township as the "largest municipal results"...

So Millcreek Township was the largest Municipality which Trump won in PA and Altoona was the largest City?

I have been working through my own lists to include historical results and not just '16 for places--- but haven't hit PA yet, so cribbed some notes from other Atlas Brothers and Sisters to fill in blanks here and there from this thread...     Wink

PA or OH was likely next on my list, but also Louisiana would be tempting as well... side tracked with coastal vacation and all of the dramatic news over the past few days / week

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=272471.msg5816898#msg5816898
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #47 on: October 03, 2020, 09:50:27 PM »

Not surprised that our city is in northwest Iowa, the rural-Texas of the Midwest.

Looks like overall it votes a lot more DEM than "Rural Texas".... Wink

Obama not only won it in '08, but improved going into '12...   ?!?

Looks like it went for Gore in '00 and might have narrowly voted Bush Jr in '04...

The 2018 CD-04 numbers here were wild DEM, but Steven King was already on his way out.....

Thoughts about 2020 in part of your backyard so to speak?

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=386520.msg7599895#msg7599895
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #48 on: October 03, 2020, 11:44:57 PM »

Not surprised that our city is in northwest Iowa, the rural-Texas of the Midwest.

Looks like overall it votes a lot more DEM than "Rural Texas".... Wink

Obama not only won it in '08, but improved going into '12...   ?!?

Looks like it went for Gore in '00 and might have narrowly voted Bush Jr in '04...

The 2018 CD-04 numbers here were wild DEM, but Steve King was already on his way out.....

Thoughts about 2020 in part of your backyard so to speak?

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=386520.msg7599895#msg7599895

Sioux City, like a lot of Iowa towns, is far to the left of its rural surroundings. Although Sioux City may be fairly Democratic, it's still pretty right compared to, say, Cedar Rapids, Des Moines, or Iowa City, and its surrounding counties are very dark Republican on maps. For instance, here are IA-GOV 2018, IA-SEN 2016, and IA-PRES 2016 county maps, and take note of how deep the blue is in the northwestern counties, even Woodbury (touching the western border with South Dakota and Nebraska, fourth down from the Minnesota border), where the majority of Sioux City is.




Totally--- Grok all that---

Still, I'm looking at a scenario where Biden will likely only slightly under-perform Obama '08 numbers in many parts of the "Rural Midwest", including places from Fargo, Sioux Falls, Omaha, and Sioux City.

Biggest swings will likely occur in WWC Obama > Trump Cities:

Wichita KS
Springfield MO
Billings MT
Oklahoma City OK

As an Oregonian totally get the concept of difference between "City" vs "Rural" voters, so for example Coos Bay and Roseburg typically tended to be much more supportive of DEMs, even before Rurals started to swing hard PUB....

Currently IA polls show Trump with a narrow lead statewide...

How will Sioux City vote for PRES and US-SEN in 2020?

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NOVA Green
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« Reply #49 on: October 04, 2020, 12:26:16 AM »

Michigan: Largest Trump '16 City:

#4: Sterling Heights....   Tilt / Lean Trump in 2020.


So to follow up on my preceding post--- adding in numbers for

Sterling Heights--- US House 2002 to 2018:





Sterling Heights--- Michigan Governor 2002 to 2018:



So--- how to interpret all of this data?

1.) Sterling Heights has consistently had a Republican lean relative to statewide results at the Presidential level for every election from 2000 to 2016.

Bush won the city by 2.7% and 3.6% respectively in 2000 and 2004.

Even Obama significantly under-performed in both 2008 and 2012, despite winning the City both times but well below his statewide margins in Michigan.

2.) There is no way to read the 2016 Presidential election results in Sterling Heights other than as a total collapse of Democratic support, and unlike in many other places where 3rd Party voting was a major reason, here it is clear that there was a significant swing towards Trump and his brand of Republicanism.

3.) For Sterling Heights to flip at the Presidential level, it would involve a massive swing almost on the order of the 2012 > 2016 Republican swing.

4.) Overall the US Senate numbers from Sterling Heights would appear to be generally favorable for Democrats (With the exception of 2000), and indicate that perhaps partisan affiliation is more malleable than Presidential top-line numbers might suggest.

5.) On it's surface the 2018 Senate numbers could be construed as a possible sign that Sterling Heights is moving back at the Presidential level in 2020.

The overall total turnout was at a record level for an off-year election with 48.6k US-SEN ballots cast and a +2.5% D win in the City.

However, I am not totally convinced yet that this is the case, especially considering this was the worst result for a DEM for US-SEN in the City since 2000!

6.) The US-House numbers tell an interesting story, and perhaps also could be interpreted as positive movement in the direction of the Democratic Party.

     A.) From 2002 > 2010 Republicans effectively dominated the US-House vote within the City, winning by convincing, and in some cases overwhelming margins.

    B.) 2012/2014 proved better for the DEMs with redistricting and solid margins in CD-09

    C.) In 2016 we see Republicans edging out Democrats narrowly in the total House vote within Sterling Heights and the Republican vote share in CD-09 moving up to almost 45% of the vote.

   D.) 2018 was essentially very close to 2016, with some minor DEM gains overall but with the best performance for a DEM in the CD-10 portion of the City...

So on balance, it's difficult to see any clear evidence that 2018 US House results are indicative of 2020 PRES voting patterns here...

7.) The Gubernatorial results from 2018 perhaps might be the clearest indicator of shifts that might roll into 2020, considering that since 2002 generally Sterling Heights has been a Republican City (with the exception of 2006)... since these are all off-year elections it might auger potential bigger shifts within the electorate that could transfer into 2020.

Will it be enough? Do we really have sufficient evidence that Biden will be able to create a +12% PRES Swing in Sterling Heights in 2020?

At this point, I'm still gonna go with my gut that this is a Tilt / Lean Trump City in 2020...















Just adding a reminder Stirling Heights Republican mayor has endorsed Biden, fwiw.

So assuming you think Biden will win Parma, Ohio in 2020?

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