GOP Internals: Up less than 5 in Montana, Down in Maine, Georgia and Kansas (user search)
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  GOP Internals: Up less than 5 in Montana, Down in Maine, Georgia and Kansas (search mode)
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Author Topic: GOP Internals: Up less than 5 in Montana, Down in Maine, Georgia and Kansas  (Read 5467 times)
NOVA Green
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« on: July 02, 2020, 09:40:15 PM »

KANSAS?!?

That only happens if Biden is up, like, 15 nationally.

Probably but it is worth noting that Kansas is actually fairly well educated compared to most other states (It ranks #17 in the country for bachelor's degree attainment - ahead of Oregon, Pennsylvania and Wisconson)

Kansas is a relatively small state (Population speaking) with only about 2.9 Million Residents....

Supporting the Confederacy in Kansas, which has long since moved beyond the the "Bleeding Kansas / Bloody Kansas" of what was essentially a proxy war between Slavers and Abolitionists, in my book is not a winning strategy within a State where internecine warfare between Far-Right and Centrist Republicans have turned off massive swaths of voters....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bleeding_Kansas#:~:text=Bleeding%20Kansas%2C%20Bloody%20Kansas%2C%20or,the%20proposed%20state%20of%20Kansas.

If we look where people actually live starting with essentially suburban KC:

1.)

Johnson County: (20% of the Population)
Wyandotte County: (6% of the Population)

It is not inconceivable at all that Biden is leading by massive margins within these two Counties...

2.) Now let's look at the top ten Counties in KS in terms of Population:



Now we're looking at roughly close to 65% of the Population of Kansas....

3.) Sedgwick County-- 18% of KS POP (Metro Wichita) is obviously ground zero if KS is tightening up this much....   (36-54 Clinton-Trump)

4.) Shawnee County- (Metro Topeka)-  6.2% of KS Pop. (44-47 Clinton-Trump)

5.) Douglas County- (Metro Lawrence)- 4.0% of KS Pop (62-29 Clinton-Trump).

I could go on to the other Counties on the list, but yeah it's entirely plausible if massive swings are happening in Metro KC, combined with Metro Wichita flipping hard, it's entirely plausible, although granted the relatively small % of the voters who reside out in Western KS will likely vote the same way as in NE-03....

6.) Seriously though, this makes me wonder if NE-01 might potentially be in play....

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NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
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Posts: 11,514
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« Reply #1 on: July 03, 2020, 01:15:46 AM »

https://t.co/hW77D0HOgz

Quote
Private R polls show the president struggling even in conservative states, leading Mr. Biden by less than five points in Montana and trailing him in Georgia and even Kansas, according to G.O.P. officials who have seen the data

IT'S HAPPENING!


CALL ME NOSTRADAMUS BABY


https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=320925.msg6814145#msg6814145


inb4 Jynx'd



Well.... although personally I am a bit skeptical that KS will vote DEM in 2020, and (certainly not based upon one internal Republican Poll), you can and certainly should claim credit against the nay-sayers after reviewing your 2019 post and the responses.

Naturally had you predicted the current national poll margins in 2019, obviously you might have been met with less sarcasm and abuse.

Still... hat's off for raising a serious question and massive flag and a prescient observation regarding shifts in KS

Next question obviously would performing statistics and discussing with maps....Wink
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NOVA Green
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Posts: 11,514
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« Reply #2 on: July 07, 2020, 02:28:14 AM »

If trump is really only up by 5 in Montana, wouldn't he be in real danger of losing Utah as well?

That's an interesting question, especially since the whole McMullin protest vote scene was totally different than we same in most other places where essentially we could look at Green & Libertarian Voters and then try to game out how they would fall in an election without two extremely unpopular GE Presidential Candidates...

What % would Biden need to win in Salt Lake, Utah, and Davis & Weber Counties to make this a possibility?

Will McMullin be able to come close to capturing 2016 levels of support as a Constitution Party Candidate in 2020?

How many Obama > Trump voters are there in Utah?

Obama hit 34% in '16 against McCain, so I would assume Biden would need to hit something like 40% at min to be competitive, even assuming a strong 3rd Party Vote?

It's actually plausible that Utah might have weird dynamics (Just like '16) when it comes to a 2nd Trump term, but we are obviously going much deeper into unchartered territory beyond even '16 for my brain to grok what that would look like.
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