Iowa-PPP: Trump +2

[NOVA Green]

One of the interesting questions in the poll was:

Q5 Which of the following best represents your
position on meat packing plants during the
coronavirus- they should be reopened now to
ensure there’s no disruption to the national
food supply, or they should remain closed until
local health officials deem it safe for workers to
return?
 36%
Think they should be reopened now to
ensure there’s no disruption to the national
food supply .....................................................
 53%
Think they should remain closed until local
health officials deem it safe for workers to
return ..............................................................
Not sure 11%

If we look at some the places hit hardest with the COVID-19 infestation in the meat packing plants in Iowa:

Black Hawk County: (50-43 HRC> Trump) vs (59-39 Obama>Romney)   +13% R Swing '12>'16
Tama County:          (57-37 Trump>HRC) vs  (53-45 Obama>Romney)   +28% R Swing '12>'16
Louisa County:         (61-33 Trump>HRC) vs  (49*-49 Obama>Romney)  +28% R Swing '12>'16

Additionally, there has been a major outbreak in Dakota County, Nebraska right across the river from river from Woodbury County, Iowa (Sioux City)....

All of these incidents have been widely reported in all of the local Iowa Metro Media Markets....

At a broader level the economic impact for Hog Farmers has been especially significant, many of whom had already seen decreased demand because of the Trump Administration's "Trade War with China", and the recent impact from a Hog Processing Plant in Sioux Falls, South Dakota received a fair amount of local coverage.

Although many folks (not necessarily on Atlas) tend to think of Iowa as "just another Farm State", the reality is much more complex with skilled MFG workers in certain sectors (Auto, Heavy Eqpt, etc), less skilled MFG workers in others (such as meat processing), an extremely educated population, with a significant amount of both Undergrad and Grad Students in a plethora of both Private and Public Colleges and Universities.

The Corn & Soybean Farms focused on livestock agricultural exports to China (or other countries) were never going to alone be an issue, since it is possible to weather a storm term storm (assuming that that doesn't cause a longer-term loss of global market share), but once you combine that with the drying up of the domestic supply-chain for pigs as a result of consolidation and increasingly packed working conditions for workers that process the meat, combined with massive outbreaks in the factories, immediately threatens the livelihoods of small family-farmers in Iowa.

Typically in many of these farms you might run about 40-80 acres where you alternate the corn/soybeans (Which is relatively machine-intensive), and have hogs that feed off the food-stock on your farm, which you then end up then selling in combination with other small farmers (possibly members of historical Farmer Co-Ops or Grange Halls, etc) to the larger meat-packing plants, so you don't get screwed over (excuse my language) on pricing or bid against each other....

Maybe I'm reading way to much into all of this, but I suspect that both Trump & Ernst are taking a bit of a hit on this....