TX-23 Hurd Retiring

[NOVA Green]

Upper-Income educated Anglo, Asian, and Latino 'burbs of SA are key to the 2020 election in TX-23.....

These are the places that not only swung hard towards BETO in the US-SEN '18 race, but also helped keep hurd's margins down in the part of the district in Bexar County that was part of the PUB Gerrymandering "of the Voting Breadbasket of the District".

Assuming TX PUBs don't once again try to cheat and move district lines around, or if somehow White/Asian/Latino Upper-Middle-Class and Educated voters in the 'Burbs/Exurbs of SA that swung hard TX-SEN-DEM in '18 decide that DJT is really on their side, and the "massive tax cuts" are worth the cost, or maybe somehow working-class Latinos that typically in TX vote 80% DEM but don't vote in nearly as high rates as Middle-Class Latinos that traditionally tended to be a competitive constituency in Texas politics including only a few short years back, somehow decide that whatever replacement the PUBs have in mind is somehow a friend to the "Communidad".....

Then Republican might have a chance in TX-23....

[NOVA Green]

Sad, I liked him. Maybe he can get an appointment in a Biden Administration.

Lean R - > Lean D for 2020. Please run again Gina Ortiz-Jones!

She's running.

Well considering how well she was able to do in the San Antonio Republican Upper-Income suburbs of the district (Bexar County overall went from +14k R in '16 to +4.6k R in '18), and that DEM votes in El Paso County (+ 13.6k D in '16 and + 10.7k D in '18), I would say she has a good shot of winning in a Presidential Election Year, especially with Hurd opting out for '20.

Bexar County will likely be about 50% of the CD-23 County Vote Share in 2020, so unless 2018 was some sort of weird fluke among these types of Anglo 'Pub Upper-Income voters in the district, where the biggest turnout drops where in working-class Latino precincts that tend to be the most Democratic precincts, looks like the PUB might be fighting against the wind.....