TX-23 Hurd Retiring

[Rookie Yinzer]

Battleground Texas!

Definitely more likely to flip than not now. Same goes for GA-07.

Ga 7th is still Trump +6.5. Im keeping that at tossup/tilt R but this is definetely lean/Likely D.

And it was Abrams +2 with non-white turnout down and Kemp’s cronies at the Gwinnett Board of Elections illegally throwing out Asian and Latino absentee ballots. Both seats are Likely D.

You're just insane. Abrams lost, deal with it.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/20/politics/gwinnett-county-absentee-ballots/index.html

Brian Kemp and his minions at the local level cheated. Deal with it.

[Green Line]

Bye-bye Hurdy.  Too sane for the Republican Party, very sad!

[Xing]

He may have other reasons, but I suspect he didn't think he could get lucky again. Likely D, the even more likely to flip Democratic than GA-07, at this point (though GA-07 is also more likely than not to flip.)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I hope state Rep King runs but I doubt it.

[One Term Floridian]

this year has been pretty bad for House Republicans and Senate Democrats so far.

Tbh I could easily see the Dems having a monopoly on the House and the GOP on the Senate, with maybe a few hiccups in between, for the foreseeable future

[Epaminondas]

The Atlantic having a field day on Will Hurd:

Is Will Hurd the canary in the coal mine?
The GOP is losing its future

I could easily see the Dems having a monopoly on the House and the GOP on the Senate, with maybe a few hiccups in between, for the foreseeable future

Not necessarily for the Senate. Obama won 25 states in 2012, which would be enough.
The real challenge is to make sure there are no red Senators in those states, so getting rid of Gardner, Collins, Toomey, Johnson in the next 3 years is paramount.

Then a few populists such as Tester, Sinema or Manchin could beef up the margins.

Alas, the 60 senators benchmark of 2009 is gone for a few generations. In hindsight, what a waste of an opportunity to have let the Republicans slow-walk everything.

[voice_of_resistance]

well no one could have predicted how crazed white people who watch fox news would have become. in many ways, everything today is an extension of that 2010 white backlash to Obama

[Frenchrepublican]

Battleground Texas!

Definitely more likely to flip than not now. Same goes for GA-07.

Ga 7th is still Trump +6.5. Im keeping that at tossup/tilt R but this is definetely lean/Likely D.

And it was Abrams +2 with non-white turnout down and Kemp’s cronies at the Gwinnett Board of Elections illegally throwing out Asian and Latino absentee ballots. Both seats are Likely D.

You're just insane. Abrams lost, deal with it.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/20/politics/gwinnett-county-absentee-ballots/index.html

Brian Kemp and his minions at the local level cheated. Deal with it.

Lol. You’re a sore loser, it’s that simple.

[Frenchrepublican]

The Atlantic having a field day on Will Hurd:

Is Will Hurd the canary in the coal mine?
The GOP is losing its future

I could easily see the Dems having a monopoly on the House and the GOP on the Senate, with maybe a few hiccups in between, for the foreseeable future

Not necessarily for the Senate. Obama won 25 states in 2012, which would be enough.
The real challenge is to make sure there are no red Senators in those states, so getting rid of Gardner, Collins, Toomey, Johnson in the next 3 years is paramount.

Then a few populists such as Tester, Sinema or Manchin could beef up the margins.

Alas, the 60 senators benchmark of 2009 is gone for a few generations. In hindsight, what a waste of an opportunity to have let the Republicans slow-walk everything.

Hurd voted against AHCA in 2017 and stood with democrats, we don’t need people like him, we need true conservatives who defend Free Enterprise principles. RINOS like him are annoying

[Pericles]

The 2018 Georgia election was clearly not a fair election. It's hard to tell the exact impact this had on the outcome, maybe Kemp would have won anyway, I wouldn't say Avrams would definitely have won otherwise. However, it was a pretty close election and Kemp's bare majority is stained by Kemp's undemocratic actions.

[MT Treasurer]

this year has been pretty bad for House Republicans and Senate Democrats so far.

Tbh I could easily see the Dems having a monopoly on the House and the GOP on the Senate, with maybe a few hiccups in between, for the foreseeable future

It’s probably a shaky advantage, but I can see this too, especially if a Democrat wins in 2020. Clearly further evidence that THE AMERICAN PEOPLE WANT BOTH PARTIES TO WORK TOGETHER IN A BIPARTISAN MANNER TO GET THINGS DONE.

[Yellowhammer]

The 2018 Georgia election was clearly not a fair election. It's hard to tell the exact impact this had on the outcome, maybe Kemp would have won anyway, I wouldn't say Avrams would definitely have won otherwise. However, it was a pretty close election and Kemp's bare majority is stained by Kemp's undemocratic actions.

Ok Alex Jones

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Abrams lost, deal with it.

[Young Conservative]

Abrams lost, deal with it.

[S019]

Abrams isn't even related to TX-23, can a moderator please move some of these posts

[Pericles]

It's right to call out the blatantly undemocratic actions of the Georgia GOP. Regardless of their effect on the outcome, Georgia's 2018 election was not a fully fair election-this should be acknowledged so to ensure fair elections in the future.

[CookieDamage]

Likely D

Also, it's so weird how anytime anyone complains about an unfair election or at the very least an election marred by questionable events and actions, y'all come in with the patronizing and condescending "XYZ lost, get over it." Sorry, not everybody wants to "get over" clearly suspicious events but y'all equate ANY protest to whining so I can't be too surprised.

[Ye We Can]

The Atlantic having a field day on Will Hurd:

Is Will Hurd the canary in the coal mine?
The GOP is losing its future

I could easily see the Dems having a monopoly on the House and the GOP on the Senate, with maybe a few hiccups in between, for the foreseeable future

Not necessarily for the Senate. Obama won 25 states in 2012, which would be enough.
The real challenge is to make sure there are no red Senators in those states, so getting rid of Gardner, Collins, Toomey, Johnson in the next 3 years is paramount.

Then a few populists such as Tester, Sinema or Manchin could beef up the margins.

Alas, the 60 senators benchmark of 2009 is gone for a few generations. In hindsight, what a waste of an opportunity to have let the Republicans slow-walk everything.

Hurd voted against AHCA in 2017 and stood with democrats, we don’t need people like him, we need true conservatives who defend Free Enterprise principles. RINOS like him are annoying

No we don't France

[windjammer]

this year has been pretty bad for House Republicans and Senate Democrats so far.

Tbh I could easily see the Dems having a monopoly on the House and the GOP on the Senate, with maybe a few hiccups in between, for the foreseeable future

It’s probably a shaky advantage, but I can see this too, especially if a Democrat wins in 2020. Clearly further evidence that THE AMERICAN PEOPLE WANT BOTH PARTIES TO WORK TOGETHER IN A BIPARTISAN MANNER TO GET THINGS DONE.

I mean remember how quickly this kind of things can change. The "eternal GOP majority from Karl Rove", the " EC vote bias for Obama ", the House being a stronghold for the GOP etc etc.

But yes right now, the dems have a narrow advantage in the House and the GOP a larger advantage in the senate.

But this can change quite easily.

[President Johnson]

Sad, I liked him. Maybe he can get an appointment in a Biden Administration.

Lean R - > Lean D for 2020. Please run again Gina Ortiz-Jones!

[Pericles]

I agree with windjammer, but I don't think that Democrats have an advantage in the House, the tipping-point House seat in 2018 voted around 4 points to the right of the nation as a whole. It's possible that disadvantage is less in 2020, indeed incumbency advantage will make it harder for Republicans to flip back many of the seats they lost in 2018, but with an even House popular vote Democrats probably lose the House. Democrats only have a House advantage if you assume the national environment will consistently favor them. Currently, it seems more that the Democrats have a major disadvantage in the Senate and either a minor disadvantage in the House or no advantage for either party.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Abrams lost, deal with it.

You were saying the same thing about McCready.

[Badger]

Battleground Texas!

Definitely more likely to flip than not now. Same goes for GA-07.

Ga 7th is still Trump +6.5. Im keeping that at tossup/tilt R but this is definetely lean/Likely D.

And it was Abrams +2 with non-white turnout down and Kemp’s cronies at the Gwinnett Board of Elections illegally throwing out Asian and Latino absentee ballots. Both seats are Likely D.

You're just insane. Abrams lost, deal with it.

Says the guy who compared blacks roles on plantations to that in the welfare state.

[Badger]

The Atlantic having a field day on Will Hurd:

Is Will Hurd the canary in the coal mine?
The GOP is losing its future

I could easily see the Dems having a monopoly on the House and the GOP on the Senate, with maybe a few hiccups in between, for the foreseeable future

Not necessarily for the Senate. Obama won 25 states in 2012, which would be enough.
The real challenge is to make sure there are no red Senators in those states, so getting rid of Gardner, Collins, Toomey, Johnson in the next 3 years is paramount.

Then a few populists such as Tester, Sinema or Manchin could beef up the margins.

Alas, the 60 senators benchmark of 2009 is gone for a few generations. In hindsight, what a waste of an opportunity to have let the Republicans slow-walk everything.

Hurd voted against AHCA in 2017 and stood with democrats, we don’t need people like him, we need true conservatives who defend Free Enterprise principles. RINOS like him are annoying

Do you think he's just trying to escape the plantation?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Abrams lost, deal with it.

You were saying the same thing about McCready.

Yeah, and?