KY-SEN: Amy McGrath in

[NOVA Green]

KY- (D) SEN:    (254 / 3,685 Precincts initially reporting)

McGrath--- 2,675 (46.3%)
Booker---   1,455  (25,2%)
Broihier-----   846 (14.6%)

[NOVA Green]

Which site we all gonna do it in, this one or the other?

Don't want to keep going back and forth on the US-SEN/House Board between two threads?

[NOVA Green]

Candidate   Votes   Pct.   
Amy McGrath
10,354   44.0%   
Charles Booker
8,271   35.1   
Mike Broihier
2,108   9.0

[NOVA Green]

For anyone frustrated by what will likely be an uncertain results tonight for the KY-DEM-PRIM, and possibly even longer as a result of a dramatic growth in Vote-By-Mail combined with much smaller # of precincts in the largest counties (although apparently efficiently run).

We are looking at potentially record total turnout for a KY PRIM, where neither national party has a competitive Presidential Race....

As an Oregonian used to Vote-by-Mail, I tend to prefer my elections like a smooth "creeper wine", or possibly a good Canadian "sipping Bourbon", or possibly even like a really good intense and intimate romantic physical encounter....

Let the results build up slowly, hit a mid point of dramatic tension with a final peak, and then gradually the blood pressure slows down and the euphoric high kicks in, and then the gradual downhill climb from the Mountain, with still potential suspense and uncertainty hovering in the air....

This will be the new norm in America, and although we might not always get our immediate gratification, I would rather go with a long and slow roll versus the final "Firework Finale" getting shot off 5 Minutes into the experience....

[NOVA Green]

Any bets on same-day out of Campbell County?

Boone was narrow McGrath, but Kenton heavily Booker....

All three counties are roughly 89-92% Anglo....

[NOVA Green]

If McGrath is still leading at the end of the night, she'll almost certainly win due to an advantage in mail-in ballots (Booker's surge didn't come until pretty late). Even if she's losing narrowly, she'll probably win after all the ballots come in.

Booker would probably want to be closer than within 12 points by now. Because while he will likely win Jessamine County, it probably isn't gonna be a blowout there big enough to make up for losing the rest of the state.

Do we have any idea of how many ballots were cast by day by county?

Reason I ask, is that for example when I was covering some elections in AZ, it was really easy to pull up how many ballot were received each day, partisan breakdown etc, by county...

We have something similar in OR.

So the concept of early VbM vs late VbM could obviously make a difference with the composition of the electorate, as well as individuals who might have voted through VbM during a period where Booker was surging....

[NOVA Green]

So we still have some big looking Counties out there in terms of RAW Votes:

Christian County (41 Precincts)
Henderson County (45 Precincts)
Warren County   (88 Precincts)
Hardin County   (59 Precincts)
Campbell County (67 Precincts)
Franklin County (44 Precincts)


etc....

We also have some significant precincts in SE and NE KY, which don't necessarily show tons of DEM-SEN PRIM Votes yet....

Any ideas about these Counties?

[NOVA Green]

If Kentucky is a PREVIEW what's to come in November we may not know the answer who will be the next POTUS for Days, even weeks UNLESS Biden wins by 6-10 Points nationally and his Poll-lead, he has right now holds up until Nov 3rd.

Well, Democrats wanted this Absentee Nonsense and they have to live by it.

For anyone frustrated by what will likely be an uncertain results tonight for the KY-DEM-PRIM, and possibly even longer as a result of a dramatic growth in Vote-By-Mail combined with much smaller # of precincts in the largest counties (although apparently efficiently run).

We are looking at potentially record total turnout for a KY PRIM, where neither national party has a competitive Presidential Race....

As an Oregonian used to Vote-by-Mail, I tend to prefer my elections like a smooth "creeper wine", or possibly a good Canadian "sipping Bourbon", or possibly even like a really good intense and intimate romantic physical encounter....

Let the results build up slowly, hit a mid point of dramatic tension with a final peak, and then gradually the blood pressure slows down and the euphoric high kicks in, and then the gradual downhill climb from the Mountain, with still potential suspense and uncertainty hovering in the air....

This will be the new norm in America, and although we might not always get our immediate gratification, I would rather go with a long and slow roll versus the final "Firework Finale" getting shot off 5 Minutes into the experience....

[NOVA Green]

So we still have some big looking Counties out there in terms of RAW Votes:

Christian County (41 Precincts)
Henderson County (45 Precincts)
Warren County   (88 Precincts)
Hardin County   (59 Precincts)
Campbell County (67 Precincts)
Franklin County (44 Precincts)


etc....

We also have some significant precincts in SE and NE KY, which don't necessarily show tons of DEM-SEN PRIM Votes yet....

Any ideas about these Counties?

So Henderson came in as narrow McGrath...

Nothing out of any of the others...

Madison County (Not on the list) just came in with 45/45 precincts and only like a few dozen DEM SEN ballots?

Pike County obviously might be interesting in SE KY....

[NOVA Green]

I was just going to post that KY, even in smaller rural counties are counting ballots slower than a short-neck Kentucky Turtle...

Speaking of which McConnell is currently at 73,210 Votes (87.2% of Republican Primary Votes)...

Naturally in honor of the slow rate of counting... and sincere apologies for anyone who perceives as derailing an extremely slow thread (normally don't do stuff like this on election Night)...

Rocky Horror Picture Show: Let's Do the Timewarp Again

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/KySportsRadio/status/1275614839524798464

Whelp... on queue.

Might we have a race on our hands???

[NOVA Green]

So my understanding is that the current KY VbM law allows ballots postmarked today (6/23) to be counted so long as they are received by 6/27?

This is a bit more like a California style gig than an Oregon gig, but naturally, could well make a difference in a close election, considering that Booker really didn't start to surge until a few weeks back...

[NOVA Green]

WaPo showing Campbell County early numbers at (58-39 Booker) with roughly (680 Total Votes In)

Pike County: (40-37 Booker) with (470) votes in...

In fact SE KY numbers overall on WaPo appear to show Booker leading vs NYT.

Fayette County   (72-23 Booker) with a bit over 2k votes counted...

Christian County:    (60-24 Booker) with about 1k Votes counted....

What's going on here???

[NOVA Green]

McGrath dropping fast on predictit

They must all be following Atlas Forums / Talk Elections...   (Or a Forum member is manipulating the online betting markets--- most likely scenario).

[NOVA Green]

Something weird going on between the latest WaPo and NYT County numbers...





Something is quite a bit off....

[NOVA Green]

Something weird going on between the latest WaPo and NYT County numbers...





Something is quite a bit off....

WaPo has Fayette eday where Booker dominated.

More than that...

[NOVA Green]

So while watching the paint dry and waiting for more election results to come in, I went back over the past Hour and double checked NYT & Washington Post Numbers.



So.... let's assume that the Washington Post Numbers are correct for Counties that the New York Times does not have listed:

Washington Post Numbers:

Christian---  755 Booker, 297 McGrath    (1251 TOTAL)
Laurel--       136 Booker  117 McGrath    ( 283 TOTAL)
Letcher-       124 Booker   84 McGrath     (250 TOTAL)
Pike-            209 Booker   192 McGrath   (517 TOTAL)
Woodford-    1449 Booker  2180 McGrath  (4272 TOTAL)
Franklin-        211 Booker   108 McGrath   ( 364 TOTAL)
Bell-              140 Booker   223 McGrath   ( 476 TOTAL)
Lewis-             89 Booker   291 McGRath  ( 430 TOTAL)

TOTAL=       +3,113 Booker  +3,492 McGrath    (+ 7,843 TOTAL)

Then, I went back and looked at the counties where New York Times and Washington Post numbers did not match:

DISCREPANCY COUNTIES:

Edmonson-   NYT= 28 Booker, 61 McGrath     WaPo=   9 Booker, 26 McGrath     ***
Barren-        NYT= 353 Booker, 314 McGrath   WaPo= 310 Booker, 187 McGrath   ***
Shelby         NYT=  636 Booker,   453 McGRath WaPo=   234 Booker, 123 McGrath  ***         
Jessamine-   NYT=  362 Booker, 198 McGrath   WaPo=   240 Booker, 140 McGrath ***
Scott-         NYT=   600 Booker, 529 McGrath  WaPo=   463 Booker, 425 McGrath   ***
Boone-        NYT=   580 Booker,  621 McGRath, WaPo=  581 Booker, 623 McGrath 
Campbell-    NYT=    92 Booker,  195 McGrath,  WaPo=   390 Booker, 262 McGrath
Clark-          NYT=   208 Booker  128 McGrath,  WaPo=  284 Booker, 184 McGrath
Nicholas-     NYT=     68 Booker,   55 McGrath,  WaPo=   55 Booker, 46 McGrath   ***
Perry-         NYT=     59 Booker,   68 McGrath,  WaPo=   148 Booker, 70 McGrath
Greenup     NYT=     60 Booker,  122 McGrath,  WaPo=   105 Booker, 189 McGrath
Boyd          NYT=     518 Booker, 692 McGrath Wapo=    469 Booker, 789 McGrath   ??

Let's start with the assumption that the news outlet with the highest numbers has the latest updates vs numbering errors.

1.) So the counties with asterisks are NYT numbers that appear to be valid.
2.) The counties without asterisks are WaPo numbers that appear to be valid.
3.) Boyd County looks to be some sort of data error since both cannot be possible, unless different precincts are included between the NYT and WaPo results.

So Let's start with the NYT Baseline:

A.) McGrath 28,238    Booker 24,172
B.) Now let's add the Washington Post Counties missing from the NYT totals:

McGrath---   31,730
Booker-       27,285

C.) Now let's subtract the NYT numbers for counties where WaPo numbers represent a higher total vote count...

McGrath-    Subtract 1,134    Votes      (30,596 Votes)     
Booker-      Subtract   999     Votes      (26,286 Votes)

D.) Now we need to add back in the WaPo numbers for both candidates for those counties:

McGrath-    Add        1,328   Votes      (31,924 Votes)
Booker-     Add         1,508 Votes        (27,794 Votes)

E.) No idea what to do with Boyd County...

F.) It would have been quite a bit of work to go in and add and subtract all of the other candidates and raw totals, so unfortunately I didn't feel like going through to try to identify what the actual current % looks like.

G.) I checked DDHQ and didn't see any county results that stood out for missing counties, KY news organizations appear to be mirroring NYT totals, and State and local Election offices do not have any data I was able to easily locate....

So, fwiw something worth taking a look at, and if you've got any additional results out there, something to look at while we wait.... just like watching paint dry as I said at the beginning....

[NOVA Green]

Pay no attention to % reporting or whatever .  The total vote will likely exceed 500,000 in the D primary so pay attention to how many votes have been counted--like 10-12% of the expected total.

Thanks DINGO.... almost thought you were trying to make a point at my post for a brief second. 

The point you are accentuating is one of stories about the KY DEM SEN PRIM which totally slips under the radar of the MSM...

Record PRIM Turnout (TO) % numbers in KY, despite the lack of a competitive DEM/PUB PRES PRIM, simply as a result of shifting to a hybrid ED and VbM Model....

Although everyone can wrangle about the dramatic cutback in polling stations (Especially within the largest Counties by POP), and potential disproportionate impacts to African-American and Democratic constituencies, it does initially appear that KY has been able to significantly expand voter turnout overall.

Additionally, KY is moving more towards a CA VbM Model vs an OR VbM Model, in that ballots post-marked on election day are valid, so long as they are received by the end of the week.

I haven't looked up the exact KY statutes, but personally I don't believe people should be forced to pay for postage (especially in an era where stamps almost seem like a forgotten relic of a bygone era), so if KY is forcing people to pay for stamps, they need to do an Oregon, where at least there are VbM drop-boxes available within a reasonable driving distance in every county within the State...

Now--- obvious flaws:

1.) Slow level of vote counting and/or counties waiting to release results until "all results are in".

2.) I understand slower levels of vote counting with a whole new system, combined with COVID-19 reducing the number of County Level Election Workers able to count ballots at one time.

3.) Still transparency is key.... although as an Atlas Geek & Oregonian (We invented 100% VbM--- sorry had to rub it in.      ) it is important for voters to know that:

    A.)   Their ballots are capable of being tracked, and are able to dispute rejected ballots because OCR Tech might fail their ballot, someone stole their ballot from the mailbox, etc....

   B.)  State and County Election Officials provide reasonable and timely updates of election results.

   C.) Murky--- Let's say I move from Address "A" to Address "B".... get my ballot forwarded within Municipality "A" to Municipality "B" within KY (Hypothetically).

Maybe I didn't update my current home address within KY but should at least be able to vote for PRES / SEN within KY, or within a Congressional District for a Candidate....

   D.) Okay let's say I move from Harlan County to Pike County, I would not be able to vote for "dogcatcher" or sheriff in Harlan County, but should at least be able to vote for everything else...

[NOVA Green]

All these Booker Supporters here have to realize one thing:

Booker was expected to beat McGrath in the In-Person Vote given the surge.

I still have massive doubts that his lead will hold once the Absentee Vote is fully tabulated.

The NY Times said on Tuesday even Bookers Aides saying privatly that he will get close to Mrs McGrath but not get over the top.

The in-person voting seems pretty small.  Really need some kind of indication of late returning mail ballots to believe Booker has a chance.

I find no reason to believe though that there's a 40+ point gap between absentees and election day at all, especially not in Louisville where Booker's name rec gap was never as bad since he represents Louisville in the state legislature.

I'm not saying McGrath will win Jefferson.  Booker needs a ton of votes in Jefferson to make up the rest of state.   I do see every reason to expect that the in-person vote especially in Jefferson would skew heavily Booker as it's mainly people drawn into the election last minute.  Keep in mind, I'm expecting for Booker to have a chance Jefferson has to cast 130000-140000 in the D primary.  So, looking at 10000 in person votes doesn't mean much.

Also, the only 2000 in person votes in Fayette county seem pretty weak too.  

Again, we're in uncharted territory here and have little clue about when ballots were returned and in what quantity, especially county by county.

Definitely possible that McGrath can win while losing Jefferson and Fayette by 40+ and 30+ points respectively. There is still doubts on how well she will do on absentees as a whole though, and we really don't have a clue of the eday/absentee splits in the counties that are reporting absentees thus far. An argument can be made that the absentee reporting counties are not necessarily representative of non-Jefferson/Fayette parts of a state as a whole, considering 4/12 of these counties are in McGrath's district. Woodford County is a bit of an intriguing result though even though it is in McGrath's district since it seems like Booker won the eday vote in surrounding counties but McGrath ended up comfortably ahead in Woodford on their eday+absentee count, which makes it wonder if it's possible that Booker won the eday vote there.

Fayette county seems to be decent at providing information of ballot returns, they went from 73% to 81% returned from yesterday to today, and 65% to 73% from Tuesday to yesterday, I'd think that the rate of return would slow dramatically from this point on but who knows, I still feel like the 90% estimated statewide return rate by the SOS is ridiculously bullish.  

There is no way she would be able to do this if this was to be true. Jefferson and Fayette are going to be over a third of the primary vote and she is not winning by nearly enough in the rest of the state to offset those sorts of landslide margins.

Considering her strength in the absentee reporting areas it's possible but not likely of course (would have to win rest of state by 20%). The theoretical Jefferson/Fayette results I mentioned may also be a bit bullish for Booker.

https://twitter.com/Mirandacombs27/status/1276217415110713344

Statewide absentee return went from 68.5% -> 77.1% from yesterday to today. Joe Sonka claimed 161k mail-in absentees from Jefferson, although it's possible the Clerk gave him the combined mail-in + early vote absentee totals.

Where are you seeing which areas have already counted absentee ballots?

[NOVA Green]

Where are you seeing which areas have already counted absentee ballots?

Counties that are close to 100% of 2016 vote totals or exceeded 2016 vote totals I'm assuming have already counted absentees: Bath, Carter, Casey, Fleming, Hopkins, Lewis, Lincoln, Mason, Montgomery, Pulaski, Taylor, Woodford. Davies also has partial absentee count (they seem to have around 50-60% of their absentees counted).

Ok--- thanks!

I suspected it was something like that, but was curious if there were additional sources out there which I wasn't aware of....   

[NOVA Green]

So, while we're still waiting latest compare/contrast of election results reported by the NYT / WaPo.

NYT: Hasn't Updated since Yesterday:




WaPo: Updated a little bit ago today:



So let's do the same thing I did the other day:

1.) Start with the NYT Baseline numbers since they have more counties with results:

Booker= 32,479
McGrath= 29,892

2.) Let's add in the results for Washington Post Counties not included in NYT numbers:

Christian---  755 Booker, 297 McGrath    (1251 TOTAL)
Laurel--       136 Booker  117 McGrath    ( 283 TOTAL)
Letcher-       124 Booker   84 McGrath     (250 TOTAL)
Pike-            209 Booker   192 McGrath   (517 TOTAL)
Woodford-    1449 Booker  2180 McGrath  (4272 TOTAL)
Franklin-        211 Booker   108 McGrath   ( 364 TOTAL)
Bell-              140 Booker   223 McGrath   ( 476 TOTAL)
Lewis-             89 Booker   291 McGRath  ( 430 TOTAL)
Bracken-         79 Booker     87 McGrath   (257 TOTAL)

Booker= + 3,192 Votes      McGrath=   + 3,579     TOTAL= + 8,100 VOTES

3.) The new TOTAL numbers stand at
Booker=  35,671 Votes      McGrath=  33,471 Votes   

4.) Discrepancy Counties:  (Places where the WaPo and NYT numbers do not match (let's assume the highest total vote numbers are more accourate)

NYT Larger:

Edmonson-   NYT= 28 Booker, 61 McGrath     WaPo=   9 Booker, 26 McGrath     ***
Barren-        NYT= 353 Booker, 314 McGrath   WaPo= 310 Booker, 187 McGrath   ***
Scott-         NYT=   600 Booker, 529 McGrath  WaPo=   463 Booker, 425 McGrath   ***
Nicholas-     NYT=     68 Booker,   55 McGrath,  WaPo=   55 Booker, 46 McGrath   ***
Harlan-       NYT=     30 Booker    68 McGrath,  WaPo=   
Jessamine-   NYT=  362 Booker, 198 McGrath   WaPo=   240 Booker, 140 McGrath ***
Mercer-        NYT=   241 Booker, 138 McGrath,  WaPo=  241 Booker, 137 McGrath


WaPo Larger:

Boone-        NYT=   580 Booker,  621 McGRath, WaPo=  581 Booker, 623 McGrath
Campbell-    NYT=    92 Booker,  195 McGrath,  WaPo=   390 Booker, 262 McGrath
Clark-          NYT=   208 Booker  128 McGrath,  WaPo=  284 Booker, 184 McGrath
Greenup     NYT=     60 Booker,  122 McGrath,  WaPo=   105 Booker, 189 McGrath
Perry-         NYT=     59 Booker,   68 McGrath,  WaPo=   148 Booker, 70 McGrath


Errors?

Boyd          NYT=     518 Booker, 692 McGrath Wapo=    469 Booker, 789 McGrath   ??

5.) Let's subtract out from the NYT numbers for counties where WaPo numbers are larger:

Booker loses-    999 Votes      McGrath loses-  1,134 Votes

Booker---   34,672 Votes        McGrath --- 32,337 Votes

6.) Now let's replace those with the WaPo numbers for those Counties

Booker---   +1,508 Votes      McGrath---  +  1,328 Votes


7.) So even if we leave the NYT numbers for Boyd County intact, based upon these two election reporting sources:

Booker= 36,180 Votes         McGrath=   33,665 Votes

Again, this is not touching on Absentee Ballots or anything of that nature, simply the current results we have available...

[NOVA Green]

Of course, right after I go through typing that up Daviess dumps votes...

[NOVA Green]

Of course, right after I go through typing that up Daviess dumps votes...

Local Newspaper has results matching NYTimes in Boyd County, might be inclined to think their numbers there are better?

Good Find!!!

So I guess--- I can cross that discrepancy off the list.   

BTW: n1240 I want to give you a giant two thumbs up, a tip of the hat, and a virtual shot of the best bottle of Jim Beam or Maker's Mark (Your Choice), for your excellent coverage and "bird-dogging" of the 2020 KY-SEN DEM PRIM results!

You've been awesome on following this election, and looking forward to future contributions regarding other elections.   

[NOVA Green]

NYT count updated this morning and is now:
Booker 34,653
McGrath 32,973

They didn't add just the Daviess numbers (I know this because both Booker and McGrath picked up more votes in the update than just Daviess would explain), and it doesn't look like any new counties were added.

Anyone have any ideas?

So the screenshot I took Yesterday PM showed:

Booker--- 32,479
McGrath-- 29,892   

1.) The discrepancy accounts for

Booker--     +2,174
McGrath--   + 3,081

Unfortunately I wasn't tracking county numbers in a spreadsheet by reporting source (too many damn counties in KY!) so I'm not sure off-hand how many of these votes were from Daviess County...

I checked all of the counties where the NYT had not reported and all counties where there were discrepancies between WaPo and NYT numbers...

So any additional changes (beyond Daviess) would have to come from counties where ONLY the NYT has reported results... which would narrow it down to roughly (40) counties!

Maybe if someone can pull the Daviess County numbers (pre-update) it might make it easier to narrow down the additional numbers?

[NOVA Green]

NYT count updated this morning and is now:
Booker 34,653
McGrath 32,973

They didn't add just the Daviess numbers (I know this because both Booker and McGrath picked up more votes in the update than just Daviess would explain), and it doesn't look like any new counties were added.

Anyone have any ideas?

So the screenshot I took Yesterday PM showed:

Booker--- 32,479
McGrath-- 29,892   

1.) The discrepancy accounts for

Booker--     +2,174
McGrath--   + 3,081

Unfortunately I wasn't tracking county numbers in a spreadsheet by reporting source (too many damn counties in KY!) so I'm not sure off-hand how many of these votes were from Daviess County...

I checked all of the counties where the NYT had not reported and all counties where there were discrepancies between WaPo and NYT numbers...

So any additional changes (beyond Daviess) would have to come from counties where ONLY the NYT has reported results... which would narrow it down to roughly (40) counties!

Maybe if someone can pull the Daviess County numbers (pre-update) it might make it easier to narrow down the additional numbers?

Actually, I did find the old numbers on DDHQ for Daviess:

Booker--   2,179
McGrath--  3,731

This accounts for the discrepancy in McGrath numbers, but there appears to be a slight gap in the Booker numbers (!):

Booker---      +1,904
McGrath---   +3,081